By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

 Jordan recently launched its centennial celebrations, defying the skeptics who over the years had predicted the kingdom’s demise on countless occasions. Jordan, it was thought, was an artificial creation that was bound to collapse sooner or later.

Many doubted whether Jordan would survive the end of King Hussein’s reign after his 46 years in power. But Hussein’s son, King Abdallah II, who ascended the throne in 1999, has now ruled for 22 years.

Jordan’s ability to retain its sovereignty is usually attributed to its Hashemite rulers, whose legitimacy has rested on their descent from the Prophet Muhammad. As well, Jordan is ethnically and religiously homogenous, being 95 per cent Sunni Muslim and Arab.

The kingdom of 10 million has enjoyed institutional and organisational continuity, in the hands of an effective governing elite. But Abdallah received all his formal education in England and the United States. His upbringing did not include intimacy with the all-important East Bank tribal leaders and their politics, which were second nature to Hussein.

Is the kingdom now threatened by the violent currents that have swept over the Middle East in recent decades? During the “Arab Spring” numerous protest movements were emerged from the younger generation, calling for democratic reforms.

Since then, an atmosphere of disquiet has prevailed. In the summer of 2018, the country shook again with popular protest, this time against a new income tax. A year later, unemployed marchers descended on the capital, Amman, followed by a teachers’ strike which went on for a month.

The pandemic has further weakened Jordan’s already fragile economy. The critical tourism industry, in particular, was disrupted by the pandemic The national debt before the COVID-covid 19 crisis was already at 95 per cent of the GDP.

According to the World Bank, the Jordanian economy shrank 1.6 per cent over the course of the last year while unemployment has risen to nearly 25 per cent. Youth joblessness is even worse, at around 50 per cent. Power outages are now a regular occurrence, food prices are soaring, and there are frequent shortages of fuel.

In early April, the kingdom’s ongoing domestic crisis came to a head in a clash of sibling rivalry within the royal family, between King Abdallah and his younger half-brother, Hamzah.

There had been a tense relationship between Abdallah and Hamzah for many years. On his deathbed King Hussein had instructed Abdallah to appoint Hamzah as his Crown Prince when he became king. But Abdallah removed Hamzah in November 2004 to pave the way for his own son, Prince Hussein, whom he appointed as heir to the throne in July 2009.

This past April, Hamzah was placed under a form of house arrest, while a score of others were arrested from Jordan’s most powerful tribes and clans. Hamzah denied involvement in any plot and signed a letter of allegiance to King Abdallah and Crown Prince Hussein.

The great majority of the political elite, backed by the security establishment, had rallied round the king. Abdallah published a statement two days later announcing that the unfortunate problems within the family had been resolved.

Still, in the first two weeks of June, a handful of tribes launched attacks on the Jordanian police in Amman that lasted six days, including attacks on the highway near the capital’s airport.

So Jordan is not as stable as it once was. It has been described as a “soft dictatorship” with minimal democracy, despite elections and a parliament. A revolving door of prime ministers have no actual authority, and the monarchy maintains its grip via a powerful and pervasive internal security apparatus.

Jordanian officials can basically detain anyone they want, at any time, for as long as they want, without any judicial process whatsoever, if such people protest, independently unionize, or strike.

Among those detained have been thousands of women accused by their male guardians of disobedience, leaving the home without permission, or having sex outside of marriage.

Jordan remains heavily dependent on foreign aid, most of which it receives from Washington, amounting to around $1.5 billion annually. Abdullah met U.S. President Joe Biden on July 19. The economic crisis, a severe drought, and the suspected coup d’état attempt made this meeting more important than ever.