Bad Signs for Republicans

I've been looking at what Conservative Media been saying, and they are not talking about it as much as liberal. From what I’ve could see, the passage of the AHCA is being reported on, but not analyzed on Fox News as much as on MSNBC. Instead, Fox News wants to talk about something else. That’s a sign that they don’t think their audience is liking what they hear. Considering that this could be touted as an ant-Obama accomplishment, like the Supreme Court, there should be some trumpeting (pun intended).

The second bad sign is that I'm only hearing defensive arguments from republicans. Their message is about how it’s not as bad as the democrats are saying, the Senate will fix it, etc. If you told that to your boss, would he be thinking you did a good job?

Bad Signs for Democrats

They’re happy. Yeah, I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but have you noticed that republicans are almost never happy, at least not for long. That’s because anger and fear are more motivating than happiness and satisfaction. It’s one of the reasons republicans win even when most of the country is against them. Instead of gloating, democratic politicians and pundits should be screaming in outrage and how we cannot let this continue. Gloating makes your supporters relax and, worse, can galvanize the other side, even if they are being screwed by their own.

This happened in May, not November. There’s lots of time for republicans, not to fix the bill, but fix their message. Just as bad, there’s lots of time for democrats to get it wrong, which they have a history of doing.

What We Need to Consider and Still Watch For

After the 1st Delusion of Politics, there is the 2nd Delusion of Politics, “politics should be fair”. Saying politics is not fair is stating the obvious. But, here’s what we forget. Complaining about fairness only motivates people that are already on your side. Those in the middle think both sides are unfair, and the other side thinks you deserve it.

Right now, the republicans are hoping to be treated “fairly”. They want us to remember that the Senate will change it. That provisions will not happen immediately. This is the responsibility of state governments. That Obamacare was going to fail anyway. Yes, republican Delusionals will all believe that. No one else will care.

Passing the bill did worse than doing nothing because it showed us they can do something. Now, arguing that is Obama’s fault is like me saying the previous owner of my car is still responsible for changing the oil. Republicans are now responsible for every premium increase, deductible increase, and policy denial, even if the bill never passes or no measures take effect before 2018.

Is that fair? No, it isn’t. What goes wrong with healthcare in the next year and a half could have nothing to do with what Republicans did or could do. Does not matter. It was not fair for President Obama, either.

What republicans have going for them is that they can makes this up with other bills. One of the more politely rational arguments for passing the AHCA is that it makes lowering taxes in the next bill easier. If it’s visible to lower-class and middle-class taxpayers, those not liking the AHCA could still like republicans.

And what they also have going for them is what they always have going for them. They’re Delusionals outnumber democrat Delusional. The AHCA may hurt those that voted for Trump, but they may not see it that way. And those, may not be the voters that are part of the smaller midterms electorate. However, that is why we need to know how conservative media is reporting on this. Those voters are not as loyal to their congressman as they are to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh. That conservative media hasn’t yet, is a bad sign for republicans.

Therefore, I would recommend to democrats to focus on the AHCA increasing costs for older people, who do vote in midterms. If you’re worried about younger voters, there's more than enough reasons for them to vote against republicans. Remember that those willing to take away healthcare won't think twice about taking away help for student loans. (Yeah, that got your attention.)

This is where democrats need to be careful. Too many offensive comments or talk of single-payer can be just what conservative media is looking for, and that could be enough to maintain or even increase support for republicans.

And in the same way, democrats need to keep their voters motivated on this. If democrats cannot get voters to turn out on healthcare, they won’t be able to on Planned Parenthood, Russia, or any other issue. So, we should keep watching to see if democrats stay motivated.

I could once again point out that it’s way too early to make predictions on the 2018 Election, but I really can’t back out in the last paragraph. Even I would not make that cowardly a qualification. So, I will definitively say this hurts republican chances of keeping the House more than it helps. And this is already in an environment where history and conventional wisdom says they are at a disadvantage. I would say it pushes their chances down to a totally made up 30% of keeping the House. But remember, as I kept warning, those were the same odds Trump had of becoming president.