State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 32% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

Poll Watching

I'm still trying to re-evaluate how to look at the polls, just like everyone else. The problem is that when Trump reached 45% 2-way that invalidated my prediction that he would still be limited by the 1st Debate and could only go to 43%. The 45% is still within the bounds set in The Final Stretch, just barely. If Trump goes higher, then I will re-work the numbers.

For Clinton, we have the opposite situation. She's stayed above 47% 2-way since the first debate, and her 4-way numbers are even more consistent. She's stayed 45% to 46% since Oct 16th. If I have to change numbers there's a chance I can raise her floor.

Having to now factor in the Obamacare news, I would not be surprised if Clinton is gets to 1% or even tied with Trump. If that scares you, it scares me. Just to bring our heart rates down, let me say that the state by state polls are telling us a less scary story. Let's suffice to say, that's looking like Clinton 48% to Trump 45%, but there's a lot of more details, I would need to go into. (There are 50 states after all.)

I'll hopefully be able to be more definitive tomorrow.

Enough with the Emails

The FBI should be able to finish their cursory investigations before the end of the week. If they can find only duplicates, Comey should make an announcement. To do otherwise, would be criminal consider the chaos he's already made. However, that's unlikely. Even if one email needs to be evaluated, that starts a bureaucratic process that goes past the election.

Fingers crossed.