State of the Election 2016
Trump Meteor Forecast
There's an Election I Guess
My last two updates have been getting the clarity of "late night tweet". In my last, I just threw a bunch of numbers up, so let me explain more.
Clinton has broken her 2-way (post-primary) and more importantly 4-way ceilings, 49% and 46%. Her 2-way (pre-primary) ceiling was 50%, the 4-way is more significant. Since, this occurred at the same time, we can guess that that she is getting her Excitables not to vote Third Party.
However, there is still as small number to account for, 2%. At this point, I would remind you that these numbers were always"fudgy", so don't feel the need to jump to an explanation for such a small number.
If you feel you need for one, these would have to come from either Hopeys that have become Jebs or more likely Wait-n-Sees. If we assume no change in mindset, this can be explained by a "shuffle".
Hopeys to "Undecideds" (which get counted as Wait-n-Sees) and Wait-n-Sees to Clinton.
I also gave Trump a ceiling of 45%, but that's because I went back to the 1st Debate (Sep 26th). That's reasonable if we assume he can undo all the damage inflicted, and we really do want to work for the largest pool of data we can. However, if we work from when the video was released (Oct 7th), his ceiling is about 42% to 43%. Which we use is going to have to be a judgement call better made after tonight's debate.
As predicted, Clinton's Wikileaks and other reveals are coming up more because Trump news is starting to become routine. However, it took too long, and we are already at the 3rd Debate. She will get asked about them, in the news or not, and how she does will determine if this become "unsiloed" from conservative media.
Clinton has broken her 2-way (post-primary) and more importantly 4-way ceilings, 49% and 46%. Her 2-way (pre-primary) ceiling was 50%, the 4-way is more significant. Since, this occurred at the same time, we can guess that that she is getting her Excitables not to vote Third Party.
However, there is still as small number to account for, 2%. At this point, I would remind you that these numbers were always"fudgy", so don't feel the need to jump to an explanation for such a small number.
If you feel you need for one, these would have to come from either Hopeys that have become Jebs or more likely Wait-n-Sees. If we assume no change in mindset, this can be explained by a "shuffle".
Hopeys to "Undecideds" (which get counted as Wait-n-Sees) and Wait-n-Sees to Clinton.
I also gave Trump a ceiling of 45%, but that's because I went back to the 1st Debate (Sep 26th). That's reasonable if we assume he can undo all the damage inflicted, and we really do want to work for the largest pool of data we can. However, if we work from when the video was released (Oct 7th), his ceiling is about 42% to 43%. Which we use is going to have to be a judgement call better made after tonight's debate.
As predicted, Clinton's Wikileaks and other reveals are coming up more because Trump news is starting to become routine. However, it took too long, and we are already at the 3rd Debate. She will get asked about them, in the news or not, and how she does will determine if this become "unsiloed" from conservative media.
The Republican Civil War
As of now, we can declare everyone on their own. Paul Ryan has decided to just ignore Trump by action and practically signalling it. Kellyanne Conway only appears where she does not have to answer for Trump, and Mike Pence is basically running his own campaign. In other words, all parties are assuming Trump is going to lose and thinking of theircareers after the election.This is why you are seeing policy statements come from the campaign that Trump never talks about. The campaign staff are running as if their candidate is a generic republican and Trump does not exist.
A Little Bright News
Just to give some cheer up news, I ran across this. After the GOP headquarters bombing, "Democrats started a Campaign to raise $10,000 to reopen the GOP office, meeting the goal in less than 40 minutes"
