Per this Yale Climate Connections piece, which is where the graphic is coming from, don't be surprised! That's like a five-alarm fire!
Within that, there's this takeout:
The Caribbean is home to some of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded. Half of the 39 Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes since 1851 formed in the Caribbean, including Hurricane Wilma in October 2005, the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever observed.
So, if not by the end of this month, by mid-June, I think we've got a good shot at seeing at least one named tropical storm, even if it doesn't get all the way to hurricane status.
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And, for that, yesterday's NOAA initial forecast. And, it's as bad or worse than Colorado State's initial forecast released last month, allowing for NOAA fudging by doing ranges.
Here's the basics:
NOAA expects this hurricane season to have an 85 percent chance of being above normal. I assume "normal" is on the 30-year cycle, per CSU's predictions.
NOAA doesn't get more finely granular on that. But, CSU does, geographically. So, note this:
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)
westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%.
