First, I will occasionally update this first-round guesstimate as we get firmer polling numbers not just on Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and whomever Libertarians nominate.

With that, let's dig in, with Wikipedia's entry on the 2020 election the starting point.

Bob Jr. strikes me, and certainly, pollsters, as the biggest wild card among independent and third-party candidates. Where is he most likely to have an effect? I'm basing this somewhat on state-by-state hunches and a general thought that he takes 60 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, among his voters who voted for somebody else in 2020, and doubles that with "green" voters. (Not "green" in that sense; green as in didn't vote for either one in 2020.)

My guesstimates:

1. He keeps Arizona in Biden's column.

2. He keeps Georgia in Biden's column.

3. He takes Maine, both of the individual Congressional district electoral votes and overall.

4. He takes New Hampshire.

5. And, for shits and giggles, let's say he takes Wisconsin as well.

That's 18 EVs for him. Not enough to send it to the House. It's 288 Biden, 232 Trump, 18 Kennedy. But?

Let's say I'm wrong on Arizona and Georgia. That's 17 votes. I'm moving them to Trump, not Kennedy.

Then it's 271-249-18, right? Wrong. We forgot to factor in redistricting, which gives Trump's 2020 states 3 more EVs this time, and Biden's 3 less.

We are now at 268-252-18.

That said, as she still dithers, there's the Liz Cheney factor the other way. But, further kneecapping Biden, there's the #AbandonBiden push. And, there's the new indictment of Hunter Biden, which raises up again the issue of Biden family sleaziness.

We'll talk more later.