NASCAR heads to its second 400-mile straight intermediate track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Today’s Pennzoil 400 is the first race of the year where the teams practiced before the race, which gives us more data to work with.

Because of this, I think there might be some tricky twist games in tournament formats as people overreact to training data, so I’ll focus on that.

As usual, all cash games are great for tournaments, just remember that they will be questionable.

Before we get to my picks, don’t forget that all of my NASCAR predictions can be found in FantasyLabs NASCAR models, along with floor, ceiling, median, and property predictions.

Let’s not miss the fun part – my Perfect% metric – a metric that tells you how often certain drivers show up in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 racing simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as our lineup optimizer to easily create up to 300 lineups, or our lineup builder if you want to manually create lineups.

Here’s my NASCAR DFS pick for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Selection

William Byron ($9,100): In fact, I’m going to go against my model here simply because I think it underestimates Byron’s potential as a dominator.

Byron is cheaper than Joey Logano and in practice had a better five and 10 lap average. He also had a smaller time gap between the two averages, which suggests that his tire wear is not as high as Logano’s. Fix it as a dominant in the cash game.

Tyler Reddick ($8,800): Reddick is always stable on intermediate tracks, especially those where the tires wear the most, and in recent years Vegas has seen a trend in this direction as the track ages.

Reddick also missed the qualifying lap due to an engine change before practice, meaning he starts 34th out of 36 cars. This makes it an automatic high floor, high ceiling cash game lock.

Arik Almirola ($6,400): Almirola was quick in practice and had only 0.09 seconds of tire drop between his five and 10 Lap Average Times. His qualifying lap left a lot to be desired, but he has a good car, as does teammate Kevin Harvick. Almirola should easily rise from its starting position of 21st at a nice low price.

Harrison Burton ($5,600): Due to his failure in practice, Burton becomes a fairly reliable cash game player. He needs to be faster than several cars in front of him, which gives him a good floor. If this race gets a little crazy, then he has a lot of differential place potential. I also like the way he opens the payroll to get another more expensive option compared to Ryan Preece ($7200) who starts 31st but hasn’t shown much speed in practice. I would prefer the cheaper option here.

Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Christopher Bell ($9,300): The Bell had the smallest slump between five and 10 lap average times, which I especially liked on the track, which showed it was starting to lean towards heavy tire wear.

He probably won’t be high on anyone’s radar given his starting position in 10th and his 19th place average over 10 laps. But that drop of just 0.051 seconds is negligible compared to pole-holder Joey Logano, who lost 0.227 seconds in an extra five laps. Logano’s teammate Ryan Blaney was in the same boat, so I can’t chalk it up to one bad lap. It seems like Toyotas are more consistent and Bell should go unnoticed.

Last year, Toyota were the dominant manufacturer in Las Vegas and Kansas. This was especially true in the long run. I see pretty much the same thing here, based on the drop in lap times.

If you like Bell for tournaments, his PrizePicks line for Fantasy Score is set at 40.5 points.

Ross Chastain ($10,300): I fully expect people to be all over Logano, Byron and Blaney, as well as last week’s winner Kyle Bush. Kyle Larson should also get a lot of attention, while Bell, Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. start further than Chastain.

This is a great place to get it to use less than expected again. If you remember, I recommended it last week. Well, he scored 9% and ended up in the winning lineup.

Chastain had more laps than any other driver at both races in Las Vegas last year, and he was at the bottom when he looked at the tire slump, right behind Byron among the Chevy.

Chris Buescher ($6900): Buescher’s starting position is in the ideal range for a rider with an income under $8,000 when he starts not far enough to feel comfortable playing safe, but he’s still far enough behind that he doesn’t pose a monstrous risk.

With Almirola, Preece, AJ Olmendinger, Daniel Suarez and Chase Brisco all in his price range and starting behind him in solid gear, Buescher should be underused in tournament formats.

I also like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in this price range, so it’s certainly possible to mix and match Buescher and Stenhouse in a multi-entry portfolio as the opposing player is playing in the $6k-$8k range.

Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

My very low proficiency game this week that I love this week is Bubba Wallace ($8300).

In this price range, Reddick starts from the back, so he’s clearly going to be chalky. Alex Bowman received a lot of applause for his performance in Las Vegas and Kansas last year and is the reigning Pennzoil 400 winner. Harvick was very quick in practice and started one position behind Wallace in the lineup. Austin Dillon has always been strong in Vegas and started 26th, which gives him enough safety that tournament players like because it’s convenient, but probably not much of a plus. Josh Berry starts 32nd in Chase Elliott’s car and Eric Jones starts 22nd.

All of these drivers are priced within $500 of Wallace and have reasons why DFS players might gravitate towards them.

Meanwhile, Wallace was the fastest Toyota for five laps in practice, but did not complete 10 laps in the session. If we evaluate his tire drop compared to fellow Toyota drivers Bell or Ty Gibbs, it’s likely that Bubba should be in the same boat.

Wallace won the playoff race in Kansas last year, and he was Toyota’s lead until the infamous run-in with Kyle Larson in last year’s playoff race in Vegas.

If Toyota is as strong as last year, it will be a top five contender, and maybe win, at a nice price tag.

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