Austin. According to the Texas Education Agency, the number of students enrolled in Texas is expected to decline over the next couple of years.

This may or may not be true of the fast-growing areas of North Texas, where some areas have experienced phenomenal growth over the past few years.

At ISD Royce City, student Enrollment has grown by 23.67% since the 2018-19 academic year. In fact, enrollment growth is one of the key factors behind the district’s proposed $863 million bond referendum scheduled for May 6.

Rockwall ISD is also seeing significant growth in enrollment. If the School district’s current year-end forecast hits its target, Rockwall ISD will record an increase in enrollment of approximately 46% over five years.

Enrollment growth at Greenville ISD has been somewhat modest. After a steady 15.82% growth from 2014-15 to 2018-19, GISD saw a 4.83% decline from 2018-19 to 2020-21, but enrollment has increased by 4.74% since then. Figures from TEA and GISD show the following enrollment numbers:

• 2022-23: 5475
• 2021-22: 5325
• 2020-21: 5277
• 2019-20: 5364
• 2018-19: 5492
• 2017-18: 5477
• 2016-17: 5360
• 2015-16: 5220
• 2014-15: 4742

TEA Commissioner Mike Morath spoke about public education funding during a state budget hearing in the Senate on Monday.

He attributed the projected decline in student numbers across the state to fewer children born in 2011 and since 2011, when economic hardships resulted in fewer children in families. Now this trend is penetrating the education system.

“You think Texas is a population magnet, and it really is, but the people who move here have fewer children than the people who live here, and everyone, in fact, has fewer children after the Great Recession than before the Great. Recession,” Morath said. “We expect, given the demographics we’re seeing, the number of school-age children in Texas will decrease over time.”

Tracking attendance is important in Texas because attendance determines how much funding a county will receive in any given year.

Texas public schools are funded by property taxes, state and partial federal funding. A portion of the state’s funding is allocated through the measurement of Average Daily Attendance, or ADA.

ADA is calculated based on the number of days a student attends. Thus, if a student is absent for nine days out of 180 school days, the district loses about 5% of the funding for that child.

Advocates are asking for this to be changed as the cost of maintaining the school remains the same whether a child is present or not. Some school districts have even called for enrollment funding, funded by enrollment in their schools, rather than ADA.

Morath said enrollment-based funding does provide greater financial stability for counties, but attendance-based funding gives counties a financial incentive to tackle chronic absenteeism. Because schools are only funded when a student is in class, they are more proactive in making sure students turn up, he said, adding that this is a likely reason why Texas continues to report low truancy rates.

“The ADA system actually creates a financial incentive for counties to look for lost children,” Morath said.

The legislators also discussed teacher incentives, which are currently available at 375 schools across the state. Morath added that about 600 schools will participate in the program over the next two years.

The Teacher Incentive Pay was created in 2019 as a way to give top teachers the opportunity to earn six-figure salaries.

The measure was introduced as a way to recruit and retain high-performing teachers and to incentivize them to teach in traditionally understaffed schools.

Morath said the allocation does not make teachers work harder, but TEA data shows that teachers assigned through the program are much more likely to stay in the classroom than teachers not assigned.

This is becoming increasingly beneficial for districts that offer the program as teacher recruitment and retention continues to be a problem in Texas.

However, legislators and Morath acknowledged that the program is currently difficult to get going, leaving some areas, especially rural areas that would benefit the most from the program, unable to participate.

However, Morath said that where the program works, the data so far shows that it works.

“Teachers are called to do this work. They do it professionally, (and) they focus on it, but what pay changes could make them work as teachers longer than they would otherwise,” Morath said.

Several days of Senate Finance Committee meetings were postponed last week after an ice storm hit much of North, Central and West Texas. These meetings have been rescheduled for the end of the month.

The Texas Legislature is required by law to pass a budget only during each biennial legislative session.