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Why The Answer To ISIS May Lie In Demographics

Notice: Here's my first regular blog post in quite a while, unaffiliated with the Government Accountability Project or other organizations. I wanted to pick a pertinent topic, and I hope you agree that I have. Enjoy the following article.


            Samuel Huntington’s 1996 seminal book The Clash of Civilizations And The Remaking of World Order can be summarized by this brief phrase: “Culture Matters.” Indeed, nothing has changed since the early days of a post-Cold War world—a growing number of people around the globe are developing stronger ties with their native culture. While the term is discussed frequently, few can pinpoint the constituent parts of culture. One of the largest components of culture is religion, or one’s belief in a higher deity and/or faith in a life after death. As foretold by Huntington, a religious resurgence has gripped the world, especially tenants of the Islamic faith in the Middle East.
            With this reemergence of religion, come important questions that the international community must face today. Overwhelmingly, the question pertains to “Islamic” fundamentalism and to organizations like Al-Qaeda and more recently the Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant (ISIS). I put Islamic in quotations since few adherents to the largely peaceful religion of Islam affiliate themselves with the barbaric “Islam” that members of ISIS proclaim. I can also use the term “Islamism,” which separates the militant political ideology from the religion. In the wake of the broadcasts of the beheadings of American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff, the United States is still in the process of devising a plan to weaken and/or eliminate ISIS.  

            The Obama administration, along with its allies in Europe and the Middle East, must undertake a multi-pronged approach that is conventional and unconventional, short-term and long-term. Steps that can be taken include:

Kurdistan flag flying on a rooftop
  • Increase funds (pre-scaling down of the conflict) to ensure that Iraqi military forces are well trained. These military forces include the Iraqi Police Service (IPS), Iraqi Federal Police (IFP), Iraqi Air Force (IAF), and others like the Department of Border Enforcement.
  •  Similarly, devise a comprehensive process of selecting those who are willing to enter into the Iraqi security forces. This is essential: (1) to prevent a similar incident that occurred in Afghanistan, leaving top U.S. officials and others dead or injured from happening next door, and (2) defections that might aid ISIS.
  • With extensive CIA, Department of State and Defense intelligence, the Obama administration needs to untangle the mess of factions embroiled in the Syrian Civil War. This can pave the way for possible arming of groups, even though the optimal time (at least for now) has passed.
  • Arbitrate a more durable political power-sharing agreement between the ethno-religious groups of Iraq, including more autonomy and/or eventual independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. This would begin to both increase the homogeneity of Iraqis and unite Shiite and Shi’a Muslims at least temporarily.
  • When the time comes, participate in a similar process in Syria.
  • Continue with targeted airstrikes in Northern Iraq to aid Kurdish and Yazdani forces. 

        As much as the United States can continue airstrikes and consider the politically controversial idea of reintroducing troops, it is essential to understand that the major force behind ISIS is not Islam itself, it is demographic—the Muslim youth bulge. Due to high birth rates and little development, throngs of young men find themselves in countries devoid of opportunity and hope. Similarly, young Muslims who live in Europe and the United States feel alienated from their surrounding community. This provides a partial explanation as to how ISIS is both recruiting American Muslims and finding plenty of support in the Middle East. These feelings of anger, lack of hope, and disappointment translate themselves into the post-9/11 scenario of terrorism that we see today.
        How can the international community, beyond the United States, harness the energy of the Muslim youth bulge? Something can be done, since, as an article points out, the youth bulge was the major thrust behind the Arab Spring movements that began in 2010. For one, the Obama administration and its European allies must work with Middle Eastern governments about putting “development” first. Development means many things, but a democratic (or at least responsive) political system, as well as economic opportunity and social mobility. In addition, there needs to be mechanisms, in Middle Eastern countries, Europe, and the United States to facilitate the incorporation of Muslims into the community. This does not mean full assimilation, as would alarm many Europeans, but an effort that reduces alienation that Muslims currently feel. The international community can look at the success story of Azerbaijan, a country in the largely Muslim region of the Caucuses. Azerbaijan made it impractical for Muslim youth to become radicalized by providing them with economic opportunity, social mobility, and positions in government. It is only until the international community invests long-term in the well being of the Middle East—beyond strategic and self-serving national interests—that young Muslims will believe that goals not guns can provide direction in their lives.  


This post first appeared on Conscience Of A College Student, please read the originial post: here

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Why The Answer To ISIS May Lie In Demographics

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