“In this year’s election, ‘dissenters’ are in a strong position to challenge the predictable dynamics that the Chilean party system has followed since the country returned to civilian rule” (written by Carlos Salas Lind).

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In 2008, after the polls repeatedly showed the center-right opposition candidate gaining ground ahead of this year’s presidential Election, very few Political leaders in the Concertación (Chile’s center-left governing coalition), seemed interested in standing up to a venturous challenge.

Probably the fear of becoming the first candidate for the Concertación to suffer a defeat in the post Pinochet-era was making it hard to find a serious contender to further postpone the opposition’s (long) wait for alternation in power.

Among senior experts for the government, the dominant view appeared to be that if a right- leaning candidate was ahead in the polls, then a rather conservative center-left coalition candidate would more likely erase that lead.

Consequently, former Chilean President Eduardo Frei, a member of the Christian Democratic Party, emerged as the best card to neutralize the opposition candidate’s gains. The move looked to boost the morale of those who considered the task of winning a fifth term in office insurmountable.

Nevertheless, this optimistic assumption proved wrong, and an incipient revolt brewing among less prominent figures within the governing coalition finally broke out.

Mr. Enríquez-Ominami, the son of a hardliner of a socialist revolutionary movement in the 60’s, stepped forward to fill the void left by those who chose to play down the call for renewal. During the last three months, Mr. Ominami’s popularity has soared as high as 20% leaving many supporters of the Concertación in disarray(1).

Indeed, not only has Mr. Frei seen his base of Electoral support shrinking to very threatening levels, but the center-right candidate’s chances of winning in the first round election have also faded away.

The fact that a young and inexperienced Member of Parliament can be in position to seriously alter the dynamics of Chile’s electoral competition reveals more about the state of the Chilean democratic process than the candidates themselves.

20 years after Pinochet was compelled to allow his opponents to lead the transition to democracy, civil engagement in the political process and faith in political institutions are in bad shape (2).

Call for renewal of the political elite has never been absent within the two political blocks that monopolize the country’s electoral competition. However, in this year’s election ‘dissenters’ seem to be in a Strong Position to challenge the Predictable Dynamics that the Chilean Party System has followed since the country returned to civilian rule.

Even though Mr. Ominami also poses a threat to the center-right opposition candidate; Sebastian Piñera, it is Mr. Frei who faces the toughest test in the first round of the presidential elections. Conceding a humiliating defeat on December 13 can seriously jeopardize the existence of the broad party alliance that put a period to the continuation of Pinochet’s regime.

Despite the sagging poll numbers, Mr Frei’s competent strategists have not been able to reinvent his image. Frustration has also contributed to switching the campaign into negative attacks which are proving to be the wrong recipe to revitalize the plummeting confidence among the supporters of the Concertación.

In fact, it is turning out to be a colossal challenge to convince Chileans that a series of ‘unfulfilled’ social demands will surely be addressed in a fifth term of office.
This ‘doubtful’ promise certainly does not strengthen Mr. Frei’s ability to attract electors that are both tired of waiting and hungry for change.

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(1) Some of the latest polls show Mr. Frei’s margin over Ominami within a range of just 2% to 5 %.

(2) One of the most peculiar inheritances of Pinochet’s regime is Chile’s binominal electoral system. Under the binominal system, parties or coalitions are only allowed to present a list with two candidates per district. Forcing parties to fuse in order to secure at least one of the two seats has resulted in limited political competition and the exclusion of minorities.