During the 2014 strike, economists, traders, and various stakeholders estimated daily economic losses ranging from Tk 1,500 to 2,000 crore. The ready-made garments (RMG) sector, a key export industry, bore the brunt with daily losses reaching Tk 600 crore

According to a report published in a friendly news outlet, BNP leaders have recently been discussing the possibility of continuous and drastic protests. However, the party appears to be hesitant when it comes to implementing measures such as hartals (strikes) and road blockades. Insiders within the party suggest that their reluctance to pursue these strategies stems from the international and domestic criticism they faced due to arson incidents during their protests surrounding the January 5, 2014 elections.

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Simultaneously, several top leaders have come to realize that even if peaceful rallies gain substantial popular support in cities, including Dhaka, the government may remain unaffected and unwilling to resign. A senior leader, who chose to remain anonymous, remarked, “Given this situation, we may have no choice but to resort to hartals and blockades. However, such actions cannot be sustained for an extended period.”

Some senior BNP leaders have suggested that, as a last resort, they may need to contemplate blockades and strikes. The extensive series of strikes and blockades executed by the BNP before and after the January 5, 2014 elections caused significant disruptions in daily life but fell short of accomplishing their objectives.

Last week, the party announced its intention to unveil a comprehensive and uninterrupted program during the upcoming general assembly scheduled for October 28 in the capital. However, in his speech, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir did not mention the possibility of strikes or blockades. BNP leaders are concerned that the ruling Awami League might resort to the kind of arson attacks seen in 2014 as soon as they announce any plans resembling a strike.

Hartal Loses Its Edge as a Political Tool – BNP & Allies Leaders Opined

A BNP leader mentioned that programs resembling hartals will only be considered once the movement gains significant traction. Some party officials suggest that the concluding phase of the movement will involve the occupation of key government buildings and sit-in protests, primarily in Dhaka. During discussions with allied parties, recommendations for actions akin to hartals were put forth.

Mahmudur Rahman Manna, convener of Nagorik Oikya, emphasized that these more rigorous programs have the potential to disrupt the functioning of the state machinery but acknowledged that they would unavoidably result in public hardship.

BNP standing committee member Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury expressed uncertainty about the specific programs the party might announce, emphasizing that their choice would hinge on the government’s response to the demonstrations. He stated, “Our movement remains peaceful, and we intend to keep it that way. However, we reserve the right to defend ourselves if faced with aggression.

Hartal: Imposing Significant Economic Costs on Bangladesh

The hartal, a prominent feature of Bangladesh’s politically charged landscape, exerts far-reaching effects and consequences that often surpass common perceptions.

During the 2014 strike, economists, traders, and various stakeholders estimated daily economic losses ranging from Tk 1,500 to 2,000 crore. The ready-made garments (RMG) sector, a key export industry, bore the brunt with daily losses reaching Tk 600 crore. Other sectors, including non-export businesses, labor, shopping malls, grocery markets, and casual laborers, collectively incurred losses of approximately Tk 500 crore on a single strike day.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private think-tank, revealed that between 1975 and April 11, 2013, 95% of strikes were driven by political motives, while only 5% stemmed from other concerns. Such strikes tend to foment violence, disrupt production, hinder exports, and negatively impact small income earners.

While it is contended that hartals are a constitutional right of political parties, they do not condone violence, destruction, and vandalism. In addition to existing challenges like poor infrastructure, corruption, and legal complexities, the frequent strikes called by the opposition, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat, have deterred foreign investment in the country. Investors often opt to remain on the sidelines as long as the threat of shutdowns persists, as noted by economists and experts, resulting in a dampening effect on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Reflections on the Unsuccessful 2014 Movement and the Quest for a New Approach

In 2014, the Awami League (AL) defended its uncontested renewal of office by invoking the argument of constitutional continuity in governance. However, by 2018, the party recognized that this rationale would not suffice, leading to a strategic shift towards a more inclusive approach to elections. In February 2018, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina extended an offer to create an all-party poll-time government and engaged in dialogues with opposition groups, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). It remains somewhat perplexing why the BNP and its allies chose to participate in the election without first replacing the partisan government with an all-party interim administration.

Considering the 2018 offer was intended to promote a participatory election, it seems reasonable to anticipate a new government proposal ahead of the upcoming general election. Such a proposal could potentially reshape the political landscape.

The recent resurgence of the BNP’s organizational strength has raised concerns among political analysts regarding the potential for agitation and political unrest in 2023. Despite these possibilities, there are indications that the BNP has learned from past experiences and recognized that they are at a disadvantage in political confrontations with the ruling party as long as law enforcement and the administration remain unaligned.

Conclusion

the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been deliberating the possibility of more sustained and drastic protests, including hartals and blockades. However, they appear cautious due to past domestic and international criticism, especially related to arson incidents during their protests in 2014. Some senior BNP leaders have suggested that such actions might be considered as a last resort, as previous efforts have fallen short of their objectives.

The economic costs of hartals in Bangladesh have been significant, affecting various sectors and hindering foreign investment. Frequent strikes have deterred foreign investors, further impacting the country’s GDP growth.

Looking back at the unsuccessful 2014 movement, the BNP and its allies have learned from past experiences and may be considering a more strategic and inclusive approach to elections. However, political analysts are still concerned about potential political unrest in 2023.

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