Russia’s revocation of its ratification challenges US post-Cold War nuclear planning and could reshape global nuclear diplomacy

Russian lawmakers have until October 18, 2023, to deliberate on the best course of action regarding the revocation of Moscow’s ratification of a landmark treaty that prohibits Nuclear tests. This directive comes in the wake of President Vladimir Putin’s pronouncement on the matter.

On October 6, Russia’s envoy to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) declared that Moscow would indeed withdraw its ratification of the treaty. The move was swiftly condemned by Washington, which viewed it as a threat to the crucial “global norm” opposing nuclear test explosions.

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Russia’s fate in the balance

This maneuver is widely perceived by Western security analysts as a pointed reminder from Moscow, emphasizing its status as the possessor of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. All this unfolds at a time when Russia finds itself entangled in a tense standoff with the Western world, chiefly over the situation in Ukraine.

The prospect of Russia conducting a nuclear test, not only to convey unwavering determination but also to instill fear, carries the ominous potential to ignite a perilous chain reaction. Such an act could embolden other nuclear powers, including the United States and China, to follow suit, igniting a dangerous nuclear arms race. This alarming scenario threatens to undermine the hard-fought stability achieved since the cessation of nuclear testing following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In a statement made on October 5, Putin affirmed that Russia’s nuclear doctrine, the circumstances under which he would authorize the use of nuclear weapons, did not require an update. However, he also mentioned the possibility of rescinding Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to align with the United States, which has signed but not ratified the pact.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the Chairman of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, deliberated on this issue with parliamentary leaders on Monday. He asserted that the revocation of ratification serves the best interests of the nation. Together with other parliamentary leaders, he has tasked the lawmakers on the International Affairs Committee with thoroughly studying the option of deratification, with a strict deadline of October 18 set for their deliberations. This pivotal decision carries immense consequences and has brought us to the precipice of a crucial climax in the realm of global nuclear diplomacy.

CTBTO chief urges urgent talks with Moscow

Robert Floyd, the head of the CTBTO, expressed his deep concern regarding Russia’s recent actions, and he actively engaged with senior Russian officials to advocate for the continuation of ratification. Floyd swiftly sought a meeting with pivotal figures in Moscow, emphasizing the urgency of the matter.

In a resolute statement, Floyd underscored the global reach of the CTBTO’s monitoring system, capable of detecting a nuclear test explosion at any place and time. He emphasized that the prohibition of nuclear testing remains a pivotal element in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ensuring the protection of current and future generations from the destructive consequences of nuclear testing.

Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, issued a stark warning that de-ratification could plunge both Russia and the world into a perilous era marked by retaliatory nuclear threats. This ominous possibility looms large amidst escalating tensions between Moscow and Washington, reminiscent of the harrowing Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Simultaneously, China is actively expanding its nuclear arsenal as it strives to cement its status as a burgeoning superpower.

The act of revoking its ratification serves as Russia’s stark message to the United States, challenging the fundamental assumptions that have shaped post-Cold War nuclear planning. The repercussions of this audacious move could reshape the very foundations of global nuclear diplomacy.

Eight countries hold the CTBT’s fate

The CTBT, signed by 187 nations and ratified by 178, awaits entry into force until eight specific holdout countries append their signatures and complete the ratification process. Among them, the United States, China, Egypt, Iran, and Israel have signed but not yet ratified it, while India, North Korea, and Pakistan have yet to sign it.

The last nuclear tests by the Soviet Union and the United States occurred in 1990 and 1992, respectively. While Russia inherited most of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, it has never conducted a test. However, ominous signs hint at the possibility of testing resuming. Recent satellite images, as reported by CNN, revealed heightened activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, China, and the United States. In 2020, the Washington Post disclosed discussions within the then-Trump administration about the prospect of conducting a nuclear test.

In the backdrop of the CTBT’s aspirations, the alarming reality remains that since its inception, ten nuclear tests have transpired. India and Pakistan conducted two each in 1998, while North Korea carried out tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016 (twice), and 2017, as documented by the United Nations. This intricate web of global nuclear politics and diplomacy teeters on the precipice, as nations navigate the complex landscape of nuclear disarmament and proliferation.

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