The General Election of Bangladesh is nearing and opposition political parties under the leadership of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have been creating anarchy on the streets in demanding a free and fair voting system. To put pressure on the present Awami League (AL) government they are also getting engaged in a deep conspiracy with the major development partner to topple the Sheikh Hasina government.

In some respects, few countries have not received the democratic pulse of the AL Government that they promised to the country’s people for a quality election. AL government has overtly disclosed a statement for a free, fair election in which every political party can participate. Despite this, some of the development partners have started putting pressure on the Sheikh Hasina government.

But why they are behaving in this order to show a big interest? Indeed, Bangladesh has an important geopolitical strength, and in this newly developed complicated international situation over Russia and the Ukraine war, the importance of Bangladesh has increased. There is a burning question of which block Bangladesh will fall.

You can also read: India’s Strong Apprehensions against US Policy before Bangladesh Election

MAJOR POWERS COMPLEX MOVE IN THE PACIFIC REGION

Observers as well as analysts of international relations see that the US has shifted military interests in the Pacific Ocean. It is also keeping eyes on the Indian Ocean by the extended vision of presence.

After two decades of fighting in the Middle East, the U.S. Army is shifting its focus to the Pacific to counter a rising China. It was President Barack Obama who said it first, after years of fighting in the Middle East, the U.S. was going to, quote, “pivot to Asia.” That was aspirational more than anything else as the war in Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism kept the U.S. mired in that region. On the other hand, we need to know what is China doing in this context and what reactions from the US are. According to Thompson REUTERS report last year, “China sees the Pacific islands as an area of significant strategic interest and the United States should strengthen its commitment to North Pacific island states, now in talks to renew a defense compact, to maintain a vital military buffer, a U.S. Congress-funded Think Tank said.
China had made progress in the Pacific on geostrategic goals it has been unable to achieve elsewhere, said the report for the United States Institute for Peace, whose co-authors include former senior military officials.

The Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and Palau are sovereign nations known as Freely Associated States (FAS), after signing compacts in the late 1980s that give the U.S. defense responsibility and the right to military bases.

Priorities have changed. During the Cold War, American defense strategists thought it important to maintain a massive land force in Europe to keep the Soviet Union at bay. In the 2000s, the focus was primarily on the Middle East as the U.S. waged its “war on terrorism” in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now the game planning centers on China. To counter the “two great-power competitors” of China and Russia, “U.S. forces must be deployed abroad in a more forward and expeditionary manner than they have been in recent years,” wrote Robert O’Brien, President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece.

BANGLADESH IN OTHERS’ GAME TARGET

In this game plan, why Bangladesh is countable to both countries? Before putting an answer let me define Geopolitics. According to Christopher Gogwilt and other researchers, the term is currently being used to describe a broad spectrum of concepts, in a general sense used as “a synonym for international political relations”, but more specifically “to imply the global structure of such relations”; this usage builds on an “early-twentieth-century term for a pseudoscience of political geography” and other pseudoscientific theories of historical and geographic determinism.

Notably, Bangladesh has natural links between South Asia and the rest of the Indo-Pacific. This position gives her an important strategic importance. We say she has two wings, South Asia and South-East Asia. In this new era of global economic and military order, she has emerged as a highly significant partner in the region’s ever-changing geopolitical landscape. As a result, Bangladesh is naturally a geopolitically important country to the powerful countries of the outside world, especially India and China. Because both countries are always trying to exert influence or dominance in the region.

Bangladesh and India are two neighbors in South Asia. The world’s fifth-largest border link exists between the two countries. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner. One thing is very clear Bangladesh and India are closely dependent on each other. Because the only way to travel from their mainland to land with the seven northeastern states of India – the Seven Seas – is the Siliguri Corridor in Bangladesh.

Although both countries are dependent on each other for trade, border killings by BSF, and the sharing of Ganga water, Bangladesh’s good relations with China (especially in commercial and military fields), are creating a lot of tension in the relations between the two countries.

On the other hand, in the context of China’s economic and military rise and India’s readiness to emerge as a superpower, the future of politics in Asia and the Indian Ocean region will depend a lot on Bangladesh’s course of action. Therefore, China is giving a lot of importance to Bangladesh due to its geographical strategic location. China always wants to support Bangladesh in resolving various types of problems. Militarily, Bangladesh is very important for India and China. Because in any war situation between India and China, China can easily close the Siliguri corridor through which India maintains connectivity with its eastern states. India will then have only the option to maintain connections with the eastern states by using the territory of Bangladesh. That is why India’s friendly relations with Bangladesh are very important, which is necessary for its security. China has always believed that India will avenge the 1962 war whenever it gets a chance. That’s why India is busy searching for friends in the Indian Ocean region. On the other hand, China is also adopting various plans and policies to bring India’s neighbors under its fold, such as China’s “One Belt One Road Policy”. Moreover, China is taking Bangladesh’s access to the sea very seriously. China wants to keep the Bay of Bengal under its control.

Having said this, the people of Bangladesh also feel this hot from China, India, and the USA. China wishes to get Bangladesh into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) club. In other words, China’s policy is to get her to the BRI ambitious project to walk together. But the US wants Bangladesh to join the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS).

CHINESE AND THE USA SECURITY INSTIGATION IN THE PACIFIC REGION

Naturally, one wishes to know what is BRI and IPF. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a strategy to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks to improve regional integration, increase trade, and stimulate economic growth. The name was coined in 2013 by China’s President Xi Jinping, who drew inspiration from the concept of the Silk Road established during the Han Dynasty 2,000 years ago – an ancient network of trade routes that connected China to the Mediterranean via Eurasia for centuries. The BRI has also been referred to in the past as ‘One Belt One Road’.

The BRI comprises a Silk Road Economic Belt – a trans-continental passage that links China with southeast Asia, south Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe by land – and a 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route connecting China’s coastal regions with southeast and south Asia, the South Pacific, the Middle East, and Eastern Africa, all the way to Europe.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy is a US military thought. Officially what is it? In December 2021, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken laid out the U.S. Government’s IndoPacific Strategy, America’s vision for a free, open, connected, prosperous, resilient, and secure IndoPacific region in which all countries are empowered to adapt to the 21st century’s challenges and seize its many opportunities. While examining the Chinese and US interests through the window of BRICS and IPF, it seems that IPS is very sensitive for Bangladesh to get engaged in the US military vision. Bangladesh is always for peace and will be on it.

When the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman liberated Bangladesh, he inherited a war-ravaged nation and knew that, without the right partnerships, he would not be able to support his people. Thus, he adopted the principle that has now become Bangladesh’s foreign policy theory: “Friendship to all, malice to none.” This means Dhaka is not in a position to buy stress related to any military block or vision. That is why Bangladesh has come up with a very fresh Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO), which emphasizes neutrality and achieving close economic engagement with both China and the US.

BANGLADESH’S INDO-PACIFIC OUTLOOK (IPO)

Bangladesh formally announced its “Indo-Pacific Outlook” (IPO) to the world in April this year. Together with almost all other Indo-Pacific foreign policy doctrines of the US, UK, Japan, Australia, India, and other developed nations, Bangladesh now openly shares a “vision” of “a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity for all.”

The timely release came right before the prime minister began her three-nation diplomatic visit to Japan, the US, and the UK, and right before the World Bank inked a $2.25 billion loan for five new megaprojects to be implemented over the next five years. The 15-point outlook emphasized security as a prerequisite for economic prosperity and clarified that Dhaka leaning towards no side in the growing geopolitical competition between China and the United States centering the region.

State minister Shahriar Alam said in the press conference that “Being a littoral State of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh considers the stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific to be a crucial factor in realizing her “Vision 2041’, i.e. building a modern, knowledge-based developed country by 2041. The Indo-Pacific area’s collective share in global GDP, preponderance in international trade, enhanced climate action, and growing technological dynamism can be key determinants for ensuring Bangladesh’s longterm resilience and prosperity. Bangladesh, therefore, envisions a free, open, peaceful,

The Indo-Pacific area’s collective share in global GDP, preponderance in international trade, enhanced climate action, and growing technological dynamism can be key determinants for ensuring Bangladesh’s long-term resilience and prosperity. Bangladesh, therefore, envisions a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive IndoPacific for the shared prosperity for all

EXPERT OPINION

PRESS XPRESS: In the context of geopolitical scenarios: Why is Bangladesh a hotspot of global power?

It is in this context, Bangladesh has emerged as a significant player in the region owing to its miraculous economic development, visionary leadership and geopolitical importance. Eventually, Bangladesh has come under intense focus from great powers in the region and beyond. The growing attention to Bangladesh may be attributed to a couple of factors.

Domestically, Bangladesh has witnessed a great transformation in its economy and society under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Per capita income and gross domestic product (GDP) in Bangladesh have increased more than five times over the past decade. Bangladesh has surpassed Pakistan in South Asia both in terms of per capita income and GDP in the recent years and thus becoming the second largest economy in South Asia. Similarly, Bangladesh’s achievements in social development are impressive.

Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen argued on many occasions that Bangladesh has achieved exemplary social progress in many indicators such as women empowerment, life expectancy, poverty alleviation, school enrolment and access to sanitation and drinking water. The achievement of graduation from the least developed country (LDC) to a developing country (DC) with effect from 2026 is another landmark achievement.

Bangladesh is now pursuing to become a developed country and smart nation by 2041. The opening of the Padma Bridge on Bangladesh’s own fund, inauguration of Dhaka Metro Rail, and the construction of Elevated Express Way, the Karnophuli Tunnel and Third Terminal Dhaka International Airport are some examples of infrastructure that has changed the nation. The transformation of national capacity of Bangladesh has increased its role in the external world.

Externally, the rise of China and India in its own vicinity and growing attention of the US to the Indo Pacific region are critical ingredients to amply the importance of a country like Bangladesh in the region. The geopolitical location of Bangladesh as a bridge between the Southeast Asia and South Asia has assumed a new level of significance. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Myanmar’s relations with China and continuing instability in this country, Sino-India competition in the region, a new balancing act by the ASEAN and growing presence of China and the US in the Indo-Pacific region have put spotlight on Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh becomes an actor in the region with immense geopolitical and geo-economic interests.

PRESS XPRESS: How do you examine the peace directives of Sheikh Hasina to deal with growing US attention to Bangladesh’s domestic politics?

Dr. Delwar Hossain: Bangladesh has always emphasized its bilateral relations with the US. Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman government established diplomatic relations with the US in April 1972. The Bangladesh Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina is the architect of strong BangladeshUS relations in the early 2010s when the two countries started Security Dialogue. With changing geopolitical and strategic realities and growing geopolitical significance of Bangladesh, the USA is keen to court Bangladesh into its strategic orbit.

On the occasion of the 50th Anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations, Bangladesh and the United States expressed optimism and urgency for further consolidation of bilateral relations. President Biden wrote a letter to the Prime Minster, Sheikh Hasina about the contours of bilateral relations and exchanged diplomatic nicety between the two nations. In January 2023, the US President also expressed highly optimistic view about Bangladesh-US relations and observed that the two countries to work for enduring bilateral partnership.

The US has recently shown its interests about domestic politics in Bangladesh. It has repeatedly talked about free and fair elections in Bangladesh. Several rounds of visits from the US have taken place to discuss various issues, including the Rohingya crisis and elections in Bangladesh. Both the countries have common understanding of two issues. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has repeated mentioned that the upcoming elections in Bangladesh will be free and fair and it will be held according to the Constitution.

One may argue that Bangladesh comes strongly to the US policy circle for several reasons: sustained economic growth in Bangladesh that has already surpassed Pakistan; growing strategic importance of Bangladesh; protecting existing business interests of the US in Bangladesh; critical importance of Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific region. In this context, Bangladesh as a key regional player is immensely important for regional peace and stability. The continuation of liberal and secular political leadership in Bangladesh with ‘Zero Tolerance Policy’ to curb terrorism, radicalization and transnational crimes is extremely critical for advancing Bangladesh-US relations in the coming days.

PRESS XPRESS: Do you think Bangladesh has enough international friends to support Its mission for economic development?

Dr. Delwar Hossain: Perhaps, Bangladesh is the only emerging middle power and a significant regional player in the world which maintains friendship to all great powers. It’s a unique phenomenon in the modern history. Bangladesh’s miraculous economic development of the last fifteen years is the outcome of its partnerships with its global partners. Everybody knows that Bangladesh has profound friendships with India, China, USA, EU, Japan, UK and Russia. Bangladesh is enjoying its highest level of warm and brotherly relations with the Middle Eastern powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, Egypt, Palestine and others. Bangladesh has received and is receiving crucial support from Japan, China and India for its infrastructure and connectivity projects. Bangladesh has growing trade and investment links with China, India, US, EU and UK. Therefore, one can argue that Bangladesh can boast of having international partners and friends to support its journey to a developed and smart country by 2041.

Besides, one of the critical strengths of Bangladesh’s foreign policy is that Bangladesh has no hostility with great powers for its own interests. Bangladesh does not allow using its soil or policy for the purpose of harming other nations. Unlike many nations in the Cold War era, Bangladesh does not pursue the policy of using one power against another. The strategic posture of Bangladesh is based on achievement of economic development and preservation of national security. It is defensive and peace-centric. Bangladesh peacekeepers and common people are dedicated to support peacebuilding in different parts of the world. Bangladesh has sheltered 1.2 million Rohingyas in its own soil despite its resource constraints and overpopulation. Bangladesh is strongly pursuing a balanced and independent foreign policy approach to contribute to achieve its national goals and global peace and prosperity.

secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity for all.” Shahriar Alam further said Bangladesh followed four guiding principles to finalize the outlook, with the first one being the foreign policy dictum of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman — Friendship towards all, malice toward none.

The second principle is a “constitutional mandate on the conduct of international relations based on the principles of respect for national sovereignty and equality, political independence, non-interference in internal affairs, peaceful settlement of international disputes, as well as respect for international law and the principles enunciated in the United Nations Charter, and striving for renunciation of the use of force in international relations and for general and complete disarmament.”

The third principle is adherence to the relevant UN treaties and international conventions, as applicable, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and the fourth one is constructive regional and international cooperation for sustainable development, international peace, and security, humanitarian action, and fundamental rights and freedoms.

Consistent with these four principles, in the peacebuilding process, the objective that will guide Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook and engagements includes “Strengthen mutual trust and respect, forge partnerships and cooperation, and promote dialogue and understanding to ensure peace, prosperity, security, and stability for all in the Indo-Pacific.” It also aims to “strengthen existing mechanisms on maritime safety and security in the IndoPacific, including response to emergencies at sea and conduct of search & rescue, and uphold the exercise of freedom of navigation & over-flight, by international law and relevant international conventions, including UNCLOS, 1982. The outlook aims to “maintain the meaningful and value-driven contribution to international non-proliferation, peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and counter-terrorism efforts, including with partners in the Indo-Pacific, and support regional and international efforts towards combating transnational organized crimes in the Indo-Pacific through both normative and practical actions.”

It targets to “expand global lead on the flagship agenda of a ‘culture of peace’, enhance focus on the ‘women, peace and security’ agenda, promote interfaith harmony and work towards building peaceful, just and inclusive societies in the Indo-Pacific.” More so, it gives importance to inclusiveness, i.e. Bangladesh will get engaged with every power that will extend hands of friendship. That’s why the 15-point outlook includes “collaboration with subregional partners and relevant organizations towards bolstering regional cooperation and enhancing mutually beneficial complementarities,” as well as to “strengthen collaboration and cooperation in science, technology, research, and innovation for shared benefits of all, in keeping with the vision of ‘Smart Bangladesh’”

IMPORTANCE OF BANGLADESH MILITARY STRENGTH IN SOUTH ASIA

Bangladesh is the fourth military power in South Asia. Bangladesh ranks 18 out of 33 countries in Asia-Pacific in military strength and 53 out of 126 countries in the world. This information has been published based on a report by the US intelligence agency CIA on a website called ‘Global Fire Power (GFP)’ based on military power. Although the 53rd military power in the world and the fourth military power in South Asia, Bangladesh is becoming important in world politics, economy, and military policy due to its geographical location.

America, Russia, China, and neighboring India all now want to get close to Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also maintaining good relations with everyone by adopting this strategy diplomatically of ‘friendship with all’. Therefore, even after the purchase of submarines from China, there may be a formal proposal for a ‘military cooperation agreement’ during the prime minister’s upcoming visit to India. However, it seems that Bangladesh is still not looking at such a proposal from longtime friend India in a positive light. As a prudent politician, the Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has taken over Bangladesh in the world political context like a skilled fisherman. She is known to have balanced relations with both China and India.

However, Bangladesh is in a very important position in the strategic aspect of security as the Bay of Bengal is in the waters of the Indian Ocean. Because of this position in the Bay of Bengal, the importance of Bangladesh in the future economic, political, and especially international arena depends on how much we can take advantage of it. On the other hand, in the present context, friendship and enmity at home are no longer permanent issues due to the changing strategies in world politics. The politics of friendship is constantly changing one after the other due to the polarization of the economy and military policy. Now the country’s politics and economy are working in the selection of friends. So due to the sea, geopolitical location, naval and road communication routes, etc., everyone wants to keep everyone’s eyes on Bangladesh, everyone wants to keep their eyes on it.

For its protection, Bangladesh’s defense arsenal is increasing day by day. So in the international community, everyone is now praising the emerging economy Tiger Bangladesh for their business, too. Due to its strategic geopolitical position, the major players of the world want to make Bangladesh their own. Bangladesh’s position in the political geography of the world is being felt acutely by the strategically important powers.

The USA has long been interested in military cooperation agreements with Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s relations with China have progressed to a strategic level. As a result, India now wants military-strategic relations with Bangladesh. Russia is now becoming one of the suppliers of arms to Bangladesh. EU countries, including Britain, are also pushing for enhancing strategic ties with Bangladesh. In the 45 years since independence, Bangladesh is now very strong militarily. Realizing its importance, Bangladesh is moving forward with a strategic foreign policy.

In this complex texture of superpowers’ diplomacy, Bangladesh is firm on own stand for peace. It is well surfaced that the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is having many good friends those who are considering her government a good friend. They believe that the government structure of Bangladesh is a choice of its people, because the people of Bangladesh have support for the decades long massive development and this observation in keeping them away from BNP-instigated conspiracy. Whatever the situation generated by any complicated interest of any country, beyond question, Bangladesh would be able to play a balanced strategic role in the power struggles in the Indian Ocean region only under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina on the avenue of peace and economic development for the people.

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