Maldives has elected the opposition leader, Muhammad Muizzu, as its new president. On Saturday, September 30, 2023, Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has admitted his defeat in a presidential run-off vote to his rival, Mohamed Muizzu.

In an emphatic tweet on X, formerly known as Twitter, Solih extended his congratulations to President-elect Muizzu. The Elections Commission of the Maldives had revealed that Muizzu had secured a commanding 54 percent of the vote. Solih, in a gracious tone, expressed his gratitude for the exemplary display of democracy exhibited by the Maldivian people during the elections. Official results are anticipated to be announced on Sunday.

Muizzu’s Surprising Lead Shakes Up the Election

The emergence of Muizzu, aged 45, as the unexpected frontrunner during the initial round of voting on September 8, where he garnered 46 percent of the cast ballots, was a turning point in the race. Solih, on the other hand, faced challenges, including a low voter turnout and internal divisions within his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). This factor resulted in him securing only 39 percent of the votes.

However, a poll conducted last week by the local BaaniCenter think tank indicated that the incumbent was ahead with 30%, while Muizzu had 24%, leaving 36% of voters undecided.

Thousands of Maldivian citizens turned out early at more than 586 polling stations spread across 187 islands, renowned for their sun-kissed beaches and luxurious resorts. Notably, Maldivians residing abroad in countries such as India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Britain, and Abu Dhabi also exercised their right to vote.

Transparency Maldives, a watchdog group, reported isolated incidents of “electoral violence” without providing further details. The election saw participation from over 282,000 eligible voters, with a substantial turnout of 78 percent an hour prior to the closure of polling stations.

Elections commission president assures smooth process

Fuwad Thowfeek, the president of the Elections Commission, offered reassurance to the public, stating, “Everything is proceeding as planned. No issues have arisen thus far.”

Solih, at the age of 61, will act as the interim president until his successor’s inauguration on November 17.

A prominent member of Muizzu’s Progressive Party of Maldives, Mohamed Shareef, underscored the patriotic spirit of the Maldivian people, saying, “Today’s outcome reflects the patriotism of our citizens. We call upon all our neighbors and international partners to fully respect our sovereignty and independence.”

Shareef also emphasized that the election result gives Muizzu a mandate to rejuvenate the economy and work towards the release of People’s National Congress party leader and former President Abdulla Yameen from prison. Yameen is presently serving a prison sentence on charges of corruption and money laundering, with his supporters arguing that his incarceration is politically motivated. With Muizzu, who previously held the position of housing minister for seven years and is currently the mayor of the capital Male, now assuming a leadership role, he is poised to address these critical issues.

Solih’s ‘India First’ vs. Muizzu’s ‘India Out’

The run-off election carried significant implications for the foreign policy of the Maldives, particularly concerning the ongoing struggle for influence between China and India in this strategically positioned archipelago.

Solih, who seeks a second five-year term, has staunchly advocated for an “India first” policy. Conversely, the coalition supporting Muizzu has launched an “India out” campaign, pledging to remove a small Indian military presence comprising several surveillance aircraft and approximately 75 personnel.

Contrasting Foreign Policy Approaches

1. Solih, in pursuit of a second five-year term, strongly champions an “India first” policy
2. In contrast, Muizzu’s coalition has initiated an “India out” campaign, vowing to eliminate a modest Indian military presence

Muizzu entered the political arena with the backing of pro-China former President Abdulla Yameen. Yameen had been disqualified from contesting the election by the Supreme Court in August, 2023 due to a conviction for corruption and money laundering. This dynamic sets the stage for a high-stakes election that not only impacts the Maldives but also has significant implications for the geopolitical balance of power in the region.

President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who secured victory in the previous election in 2018 amid widespread discontent over corruption and human rights violations during his predecessor’s rule, has strengthened the Maldives’ ties with India. This effort has resulted in obtaining more than $1 billion in loans for housing and transportation projects in the capital city, Male.

Notably, the Maldives also has a comparable debt owed to China. Under Solih’s predecessor, Abdulla Yameen, Beijing funded critical infrastructure projects, including a groundbreaking bridge connecting Male to neighboring islands and upgrades to the country’s primary international airport. These projects have significantly increased the Maldives’ debt. It reached 113 percent of the country’s GDP by the end of 2022, with India and China estimated to each hold 26 percent of this debt in their respective stakes.

Unspoken focal point

Critics of Mohamed Muizzu express concerns that his leadership could usher in a return to the authoritarianism witnessed during the former president Yameen’s tenure. Under Yameen’s rule, the Maldives experienced a widespread crackdown on dissent, including the imprisonment of virtually all opposition leaders, the prosecution of journalists, and a substantial corruption scandal that saw millions of dollars misappropriated to bribe judges, lawmakers, and members of oversight bodies. Additionally, Yameen turned a blind eye to the presence of groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS, even after the murders of a young journalist and a blogger.

Azim Zahir, a lecturer and research fellow in international relations and politics at the University of Western Australia, underscores the fragility of the Maldives’ democratic experiment, particularly during the period when the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) led by Yameen was in power. Zahir expresses concern about the future of democracy if Muizzu were to win the election, given his previous role as a cabinet minister in Yameen’s government.

Amid these concerns, Muizzu has repeatedly pledged not to engage in brutality or take action against his political opponents, emphasizing the importance of allowing everyone to participate in political activities.

In contrast, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has dismissed Muizzu’s assurances and framed Saturday’s vote as a choice between democracy and autocracy. Solih characterizes the election as a decisive moment for the Maldives, presenting the electorate with a choice between peace and stability or brutality, fear, and chaos.

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