So nobody knows what's happening, really, but here's some expert opinion: From Tom Nichols at The Atlantic, A Crisis Erupts in Russia:To be clear – so far there is no evidence of anything happening beyond Prigozhin's voice memos and various official statements.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 23, 2023
Wheeling the generals out, or mentioning Prigozhin on TV, is highly unusual. That suggests it's serious – whatever *it* is. But we have seen *nothing*
A simmering political feud in Russia has exploded into a crisis. The head of a Russian mercenary army fighting in Ukraine alongside Moscow’s official military forces has declared war against the Russian ministry of defense,...Think of this conflict not as a contest between the Russian state and a mercenary group, but a falling out among gangsters, a kind of Mafia war.A government doing a lot of bad things in the world can make great use of a cadre of hardened and nasty mercenaries, and Prigozhin has been making his bones for years as a tough guy leading other tough guys, ultranationalist patriots who care more about Mother Russia than the supposedly lazy and corrupt bureaucrats in Moscow. The Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, is led by a political survivor named Sergei Shoigu, who has managed to stay in the Kremlin in one capacity or another since 1991. Shoigu never served in the Soviet or Russian military, yet affects the dress and mannerisms of a martinet....A full-scale civil conflict—for now—seems unlikely, if only because Prigozhin has no institutional base and no major force beyond his fighters, who are a pretty unsavory bunch....Right now, none of this looks organized enough to be a coup. But coups sometimes look ridiculous in the offing—the 1991 coup against Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was a complete clown show—so the possibility remains that Prigozhin has friends in Moscow who are working with him....So far, tonight’s chaos does not seem to involve the U.S., NATO, or even Ukraine, but a fight among Russian gangsters, in part over whether Russia is being brutal enough in a war of unprovoked aggression, is something to watch....no matter how this ends, Prigozhin has shattered Putin’s narrative, torching the war as a needless and even criminal mistake. That’s a problem for Putin that could outlast this rebellion.
🚨 Wagner PMC tanks have surrounded the Defence Ministry building in Rostov-on-Don pic.twitter.com/EgcFPbjDi5
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023
Former US Amb Bill Taylor on BBC says indications Russian defence forces crossing over to Prigozhin.
— Andrew Coyne 🇺🇦 (@acoyne) June 24, 2023
For everyone who was inaccurately bandying about the “crossing the Rubicon” metaphor the other week…
— Dr K ☕️ 🇺🇦 (@DocKimResists) June 23, 2023
Prigozhin heading toward Moscow with 25,000 soldiers is actually a “crossing the Rubicon” moment.#RussianCivilWar pic.twitter.com/koIQAV8LuZ
Rostov houses the command of the Southern Military District and the Operational Headquarters for the war in Ukraine. It’s also one of Russia most important logistical hubs for the war. Wagner could get it hands on enormous stockpiles.
— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) June 24, 2023
I’ve made the drive from Rostov to Moscow at least a dozen times. Voronezh is more than halfway to Moscow. If reports of Wagner fighting in Voronezh are accurate, then they are hours away from Moscow.
— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) June 24, 2023
Yep, its for real, at least for now. Footage from Rostov is quite shocking. Wagner appears in control of this major city. https://t.co/egp3urO4gH
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) June 24, 2023
Sunrise in Voronezh. This city is the next target for #Prigozhyn Wagner group after Rostov-on-Don. If the offensive succeed, the final stop will be in Moscow.
— Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) June 24, 2023
Wake up russia. New reality.
Justice exists, bastards. pic.twitter.com/oJz3y9Xpml
Whatever is happening in Moscow underscores how fortunate it is Joe Biden is POTUS now and not the bumblefucking moron Donald Trump.
— Jeff Timmer (@jefftimmer) June 24, 2023
