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China's turning tide, smile on Indian economy's face


- On the economic front, a blow to all sectors of China, China's exports recorded a steep decline: Exports have been continuously declining since last October.

- The decline in China's exports is attributed to global demand and a slowdown in China, but it is actually China's growing bully. For years, China was under pressure from America and Europe. For the last two years, China has locked horns with America. Be it South China Sea or Semiconductors, China does not consider America. America behaves as if it has no reputation against itself. It has had a serious impact on China's economic development as both America and Europe have started distancing themselves from China.

China's unprecedented economic growth of the past two decades is believed to have started a turning point. China, which has the largest population in the world, started producing bulk goods from the 1980s and started distributing them to countries around the world at a very cheap price. By the year 2000, China has become one of the biggest economic superpowers in the world.

For the last two decades, China was not only the most economically developing country in the world but also became the largest exporting country in the world. Now, the new figures that have come out indicate that the water is turning on all fronts of China on the economic front. According to this figure, China's exports have dropped by 14.5 percent in July this year. This is the biggest drop in China's exports in the last two and a half years.

About two and a half years ago, i.e., in the last January-February 2020, there was a drastic decline of 17.2 percent in exports, but things were different then. At that time, the reason why China's exports fell sharply was the effect of the Corona period. It was the beginning of the Corona period, so there was a series of lockdowns all over the world. People were crowded into houses, factories were closed. Malls were closed and markets were closed. Because of this, no goods could be bought so the decline was understandable.

At present, Corona is nowhere to be seen, but the fact that China's exports have decreased is a big deal. A matter of concern for China is that China's exports have been declining continuously since last October. Between March and April there was a slight increase in exports, so China began to feel that our achhe din is back, but that hope turned out to be false. Exports have declined for the third month in a row after settling back in May.

Exports have decreased so imports have also decreased because most of the goods that China imports are raw materials. Now there is no demand for Chinese goods in the foreign market, then what to do by ordering raw materials? Due to this, a huge decrease of 12.4 percent has been recorded in imports. Even if the goods are not consumed abroad but are going to the country, raw materials are needed but imports have decreased, which means that there is a recession in China as well.

As the goods are not consumed abroad, it has also affected employment at the local level. Currently, the unemployment rate in China has reached above 20 percent. China never provides accurate statistics, so the real unemployment rate is said to be over 30 percent. The growth rate of the Chinese economy was only 0.8 percent in the April-June quarter, but given the current situation, the growth rate will drop to around half a percent in the next quarter. No wonder if it goes.

The decline in China's exports has been attributed to reduced global demand and a slowdown in China, but it is actually China's growing bully. For years, China was under pressure from America and Europe. By providing very cheap goods to Europe and America, China has increased its economic strength. For the last two years, China has locked horns with America. Be it South China Sea or Semiconductors, China does not consider America. America behaves as if it has no reputation against itself.

It has had a serious impact on China's economic development as both America and Europe have started distancing themselves from China. Economic transactions with other countries have started increasing. In the year 2023, China's exports to America have decreased by 25 percent, and Europe has also decreased by 2.6 percent. China has given 289 billion dollars in goods to the European Union in the first seven months but this figure is less compared to the period of the first seven months of last year. European Union countries are also forced to buy goods from China because the goods from Russia have stopped due to the Ukraine-Russia war.

It is unlikely that the European Union supply chain to Russia will resume, but the European Union countries are gradually setting up another supply chain. Due to this, China's exports have decreased. Exports will further decrease as other options come to the European Union. Both the US and the European Union are in a recession, so both are not in a position to buy more goods, so China will have tough days ahead.

Declining China's dominance is to India's advantage. India also has the power to manufacture massive goods like China, so India can increase its economic strength by taking the place of China. India has to work hard for it but it is not impossible. Taking advantage of the deterioration of China's relations with America, Mexico and Canada came to the top in providing goods to America. India is currently at the ninth position among America's trading partners.

The first number is Canada and India's trade is one-fifth of that. The same is the case with the European Union.

India has to work hard to change this situation. Taking advantage of China's backwaters, it has to penetrate both America and the European Union. India has good relations with both the US and the European Union. These relations have to be strengthened.

Mexico, not China, is America's largest supplier

The biggest blow to China has been due to the deterioration of relations with the US. Until now, China was the largest supplier of America and Chinese companies used to pour bulk goods into America. Since 2022, the deterioration of China's relations with the United States began and due to the fact that the United States gradually began to impose restrictions on China, Canada and Mexico have taken away China's position as the largest supplier of the United States. Mexico is the largest supplier, followed by Canada. China has been pushed to third place. In the first six months of 2023, China has exported a total of 203 billion dollars worth of goods to America. In the first six months of 2022, China's exports to America were worth 254 billion dollars, a sharp decline of 25 percent in a year has been recorded in China's exports. Mexico ranks first with $212 billion in exports, while Canada ranks second with $207 billion in exports. Compared to last year, Mexico's exports to America have increased by 5.4 percent, while Canada's exports have increased by 2 percent, but China's exports have decreased drastically. Germany and Japan are the fourth and fifth largest exporters to America.

A 20-point program for economic development in China

China's communist government has been struggling to get the economy back on track, but it hasn't been successful. China's communist government announced a 20-point plan last month to revive the economy. In this plan, a number of steps have been taken to increase people's purchases. Steps have been taken to encourage people to buy more houses, spend money on tourism and green technology including electric vehicles. China's central bank has also cut interest rates.

However, the economic situation in China is so bad that it won't make much of a difference. China has the worst condition in the property market. Developers are unable to provide houses to people on time so people are protesting. As houses are not available, people are not paying their loans, so the condition of banks is also bad.



This post first appeared on The Editorial News, please read the originial post: here

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