The World Bank (WB) anticipates a positive trajectory for Ghana's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), forecasting a growth rate of 5.0% by 2026. This projection follows a marginal GDP growth estimate of 2.9% for 2024, surpassing the government's anticipated rate of 2.8%. The government is also aiming for a growth rate exceeding 3.0% in 2025.
Dr. Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank Chief Economist for Africa, shared insights from Washington DC, highlighting factors influencing Ghana's growth prospects. He pointed to the country's elevated levels of Debt and inflation as determinants affecting growth. These conditions may prompt the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to consider increasing the policy rate to curb inflation, potentially impacting consumption and investments.
Despite these challenges, Dr. Dabalen expressed optimism, suggesting that Ghana could outperform projections. Factors such as the gradual slowdown in inflation and potential debt restructuring agreements with international creditors could bolster growth prospects for 2024. Additionally, debt restructuring initiatives might unlock resources for critical sector investments, further aiding Economic growth.
Dr. Dabalen emphasized the importance of sustaining the recovery through continued reforms, fiscal discipline, and transparent debt management. He underscored the significance of maintaining monetary tightening measures to ensure economic stability. Concerns were raised regarding potential policy lapses, particularly during election years, underscoring the need for steadfast discipline to safeguard against economic volatility.
Moreover, Dr. Dabalen identified the performance of developed economies as a significant external factor influencing Ghana's economic recovery. The country's growth trajectory will be closely linked to global economic trends and policies, highlighting the importance of monitoring external dynamics.
In summary, while Ghana faces challenges such as high debt levels and inflation, concerted efforts towards reform, fiscal discipline, and debt transparency, coupled with favorable external conditions, could propel the country towards sustained economic recovery and growth.
