The difference between a Superpower and a Hyperpower is subtle. Picture, for a second, the United States of America in the 1980s. The economy is booming, President Ronald Reagan has just won all but one state (and the District of Columbia) in the 1984 Presidential election, flown over to West Berlin, and demanded for General Secretary Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin Wall. These are, in short, the “good old days” that many in the USA pine for today. Halfway across the world, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) has begun to crumble and break down. Solidarity holds a large degree of popular support in Poland, the policies of Glasnost and Perestroika are slowly reforming the USSR, and the Berlin Wall is mere years from falling. For four decades, the United States and the Soviet Union had been in a bitter conflict, competing in terms of economic development, military strength, and the size of their respective spheres of influence. Proxy wars had been fought in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, and elsewhere. After forty years, the United States was finally a hyperpower, a superpower so dominant that it effectively faces no competition in terms of power. Pax Americana (American Peace) was the most significant diplomatic and military doctrine across the globe.

Many, especially in recent years, have envisioned the rise of a new superpower, one to challenge the global hegemony of the United States. The People’s Republic of China, arisen out of the defeat of Chiang Kai-Shek in the 1949 Chinese Civil War, began its life as just another pathetic supposedly communist state. China had been subdued by the British and French ever since 1839, at the outset of the first Opium War, a war fought to ensure openness of Chinese trade routes. China, even more so than India, had been the focus of all global trade policy for hundreds of years. Wars were fought over ownership of the profitable trade routes that imported porcelain, precious metals and gems, and agricultural products from China. However, much like the Ottomans before them, China overlooked the multiplicity of military and technological inventions created by the European West. More advanced ships, munitions, and military tactics began what the Chinese referred to as the “百年國恥” (The Century of Humiliation). From the outset of the First Opium War to the Japanese occupation of Manchuria in 1931, the second Sino-Japanese war (1937), and Chairman Mao Zedong’s Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War of 1949. From 1839 to 1949, China was ritualistically humiliated. First by Britain and France, then by Japan, and indeed by the entire global community.

Chairman Mao Zedong of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) immediately transformed China into a command economy, structured through top-down management from the governmental level. Landlords and merchants were persecuted, and China began to rapidly industrialize. Perhaps they were hoping for the supposed success of the successive Five Year Plans of the Soviet Union when they implemented the “Great Leap Forward”, urging iron smelteries to be created in order to increase steel production from the new People’s Republic of China (PRC). This new focus on smelting steel, however, cut down on agricultural production. This, alongside significant natural factors, led to between 10 and 50 million deaths through starvation and other famine-affiliated afflictions in China. China had attempted to industrialise too fast, and had effectively murdered a huge percentage of their population (approximately 1 in every 15 people).

On the 9th of September, 1976, Chairman Mao Zedong died. The ensuing power struggle eventually resulted in the premiership of Deng Xiaoping. After consolidating his power, Deng Xiaoping began to open up the economy of China. The countryside was de-collectivised, and government control of industry was decreased. Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Xiamen were conditionally released from direct government control, and private industry was permitted in those areas specifically. Deng Xiaoping did not permit capitalism in China, nor was the Chinese economy or government anywhere close to the standard of liberal democracy present in the United States.

Tom Foley had been elected as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States. Burning the United States flag had been ruled as constitutionally protected speech under the First Amendment (Texas v. Johnson), and Tim Burton’s Batman had been released, earning a box office record of $40,000,000 in its opening weekend. June of 1989 was a month that truly represented what the United States was like in the late 1980s. A centre of culture, freedom, and democracy. In China, the difference could not be as stark. On June 4th, hundreds (perhaps even thousands) had been murdered in a brutal putdown of a democratic Chinese movement to remove power from Deng Xiaoping’s central government. In Tiananmen Square, a column of tanks had been held up by the famous “Tank Man”, in a stark symbol of Chinese military brutality. 300,000 troops had been sent to Beijing to put down the protest. At the same time as a peaceful transition of political office in the USA, China had just committed an atrocity in order to put down a peaceful democratic protest. The disaster in Tiananmen Square promptly led to Xiaoping’s retirement from public life, and the successive premiership of Jiang Zemin. Hu Jintao followed, and in 2012, Xi Jinping became the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. China remains a dictatorship, with Xi Jinping appointed “President for Life”, without term limits, but their economic situation had changed significantly across the turn of the century. China was an agricultural and industrial powerhouse, and the transition of countries in the West from industry and production to more service-based economies had left a gap in the market for population-heavy countries such as India and China to step in.

A superpower can be judged by the influence that it has on various aspects of global participation. How powerful is the economy of the country, both internally (do the citizens of the country live comfortably?) and externally (how much is exported by the country? What is the country’s GDP?)? What is the military might of the country, and how effectively can this might be managed and utilized? What is the diplomatic strength of a nation, and what are the diplomatic coalitions that it has built? Is their culture dominant? However, as a general rule of thumb, influence can be measured by the flow of events. Think of the 10 most important events that have taken place in the last two or three years. Was your country at the centre of them? Was your country a belligerent, or a mitigating factor? Did they intervene? Negotiate a peace?

The United States is undoubtedly one of these superpowers. The culture of the United States has dominated Europe, North America, and parts of Asia since the 1920s, and even more-so after the end of the Second World War. American movies, books, and television shows flooded the shelves across the world. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) provided military protection for Europe, shielding them from the USSR’s sphere of influence. The US military might was nigh-unmatched, even by their Soviet competitors. American industry produced a vast quantity of goods, and the post-war economic boom through the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and 80s was near-constant, sustained, and on a level that had not ever been seen before in history. American citizens were comparatively wealthy, employed, and happy.

The USSR was, too. It did not fulfil all of the aforementioned requirements. Cultural domination was only felt within the borders of Russia, and the other constituent nations of the USSR. The USSR’s economy was never on the same performing level as that of the United States, and Soviet innovations were inferior to those produced by the United States. Soviet military might, especially in the field of ICBM nuclear weapon capacity was virtually equal to that of the United States, and the “Molotov Pact” engineered by Vyacheslav Molotov brought economic domination to many Eastern European countries. The Soviet coalition was a challenge to that of NATO. So the Soviets had military, diplomatic, and event-participation characteristics of a superpower. Their economic output was significant, and their cultural domination was significant.

However, from 1988-91, the USSR dissolved. The Baltic republics (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) broke free from Soviet control, there was widespread rebellion in the Caucuses (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia), and Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan all broke free from the USSR, as the superpower dissolved. Suddenly, within three years, the largest competitor to the Pax Americana doctrine of US-based global hegemony had been removed, split into several constituent republics and nations. Whatever your thoughts on whether it was the USSR or the USA that held the most power in the post-war period, it was now virtually undeniable that the United States was the preeminent superpower, to the extent that there truly were no other superpowers in existence in that period of time. The United Kingdom’s empire had dissolved due to a combination of the Japanese invasion of Britain’s South-East Asian holdings, and the Suez Crisis of 1956 further cemented the decline of the British superpower. France had been embroiled in political turmoil since the end of the war, with social turmoil leading to left-wing political victory in France, seeking to solve the economic and social issues that had been prevalent in the post-war period. Germany had been split into East and West until 1990, with the symbolic toppling of the Berlin Wall. No other nation could effectively compete with the United States, and many that could were member states of NATO, a US-led coalition of nations.

Is China a superpower? Had this question been asked in 1949, the answer would have been a resounding no. Had the same question been asked in 1989, in the midst of the Tiananmen Square protests, the answer would have been the same. Had the question been asked again in the early 2010s, the answer would likely have been a far more hesitant no. In the modern day, however, most would likely classify China as either a superpower in and of itself, or as an emerging (or potential) superpower. 57% of global investors would predict a Chinese replacement of the US as preeminent global power by the year 2030. This indicates that most do believe that the Chinese growth rate of approximately 6% (COVID notwithstanding) is enough to outstrip the US’s economic output significantly enough to replace the USA as the preeminent superpower on the global stage.

The answer to the question posed (which state has the greatest global influence today) is one that relies on identical parameters to those characteristics of a superpower. First, the military capabilities of the most significant nations (Russia, China, and the USA). Second, the diplomatic influence of those nations. Third, the economic strength and influence of these nations. Fourth, and finally, the cultural impact of each nation.

Which of Russia, the United States, and China has the strongest military? The US spends around 778bil. (all figures calculated in US dollars) on their military annually (equal to 3.7% of GDP). China follows at around 252bil. (1.7%), with Russia lagging behind at 61.7bil (4.3%). It is clear, then, that the USA spends the most on their military, with one country alone making up 39% of global military expenditure. China would have to triple their expenditure in order to equal that of the USA, and Russia’s would have to increase more than tenfold. However, this is not an entirely accurate picture of military might. Purely throwing money at something doesn’t necessarily mean that the quality of the armed forces increases in kind. 2020 figures for active military ranks China with around 2.2 million active military personnel, with the United States at around 1.4 million, and Russia standing at just over 1 million. In terms of the size of a navy, the United States boasts 11 carriers, and 279 other deployable combat vessels, including cruisers, submarines, and destroyers. China, in comparison, only has two carriers, one cruiser, but 177 other vessels (including submarines, destroyers, and frigates) including 341 coast-guard type boats. Russia, once again bringing up the rear, only has command of one aircraft carrier, with 5 missile cruisers, totaling 222 warships and 71 submarines. It is clear that in the realm of military power, the only true contenders are China and the United States. Russia’s navy is dwarfed by those of the US and China, and their military spending (while higher as a percentage of GDP) is still far lower than the other two nations. China does have a larger navy, but the United States has 9 more aircraft carriers than China does. Their navy may be objectively smaller, but is of a far higher quality than China’s, where the aforementioned navy includes a multitude of smaller ships that are still classified as warships within the navy. China’s standing army is larger, too, than that of the USA, but there is one significant benefit that the United States holds that China does not. The US military has gained a reputation as one of the greatest fighting forces the world has ever seen because of their fantastic logistics. The US military can deploy to any country on the planet within 18 hours. This is something that cannot possibly be overstated. The USA accomplishes this through extremely effective logistics teams, a military that is ready for deployment at all times, and troops stationed in US controlled military bases around the globe. The US is quite literally prepared to be the “world police'', to respond to any threat that it views as destabilizing the Pax Americana doctrine that the world has gotten used to in the last couple of decades. Because of this, it is clear that US military might and power still outstrips that of China, though the future of this domination does not look entirely secure.

What about the diplomatic influence of the countries involved. The United States, of course, has NATO. Despite President Donald Trump’s best efforts, a strong alliance with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy has persisted. These alliances mean that the United States has access to three vetoes on the UN Security Council (its own, France’s, and that of the United Kingdom). The United States has allies within all regions of the world, including primarily Israel in the Middle East (as well as sharing significant mutual interests with Saudi Arabia). The Monroe Doctrine (1823) commits the United States to protecting the sovereignty of South American nations. What, then, does China have access to? China has certainly been attempting to improve its public image in recent years, pouring significant funds into Social Media accounts that seek to repair the Chinese image overseas and to cover up events such as the Hong Kong Protests, beginning in 2019 and continuing on to today (though the brutal suppression of said protests has significantly decreased their impact recently). Unfortunately, when it comes to Russia, it has begun to look like they are only included in this exclusive list of three to be ritualistically made fun of. Russia’s foreign policy is woeful. Russia can count such stable nations as Iran and Syria among its allies, as well as the brutal Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Russia’s aggressive actions in Georgia and Ukraine has led to widespread distrust from the European community, as well as the Americans. After the process of destalinisation took place in the USSR under the leadership of Nikita Khruscschev, China’s relations with the USSR suffered. China and Russia have since reconciled publically, but Chinese influence is growing in Central Asia, areas that had historically been dominated by the USSR, and later by the Russian Federation. Russia cannot truly count China as an ally, then. Another victory for the United States and their wide coalition of liberal democracies and theocracies with an interest in the defeat of Iran, with a second place ranking from the Chinese and their buildup of trade-based Asian partnerships.

When it comes to the economy, the categories are far closer than any observer in 1949 would have been able to suppose. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States was approximately 21 trillion in 2020, even in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. China, in a similar situation, had a GDP of approximately 16 trillion. The GDP of Russia is a woeful 1.5 trillion. All of these figures are in US dollars. China’s growth for the first quarter of 2021 is 18.3%, a number artificially inflated by the bounceback of the country’s economy from the global recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Pre-pandemic, the GDP growth rate of China was approximately 6%. That of the United States was 2.3%, less than half of their Chinese competitors. Russia’s? A value of 1.3%. However, as previously stated, it is not purely the overall figures that matter when looking at the economy as a determining factor of what constitutes the nation with the greatest overall influence on the world. GDP per capita is a rough measure of the average income of a citizen in a country. The US had a GDP per capita of approximate 65,000 dollars. China sat at less than a sixth of that, at 10,300 dollars per person. Russia’s GDP per capita even outstripped that of China, sitting at around 11,600. This, of course, is because of the vast population that China houses. However, it is a somewhat telling figure. The average standard of living within a Chinese city is fairly high, though not as high as that of a US city. However, China houses millions of Chinese citizens that live in essentially pre-feudal towns, where there is no electricity and self-sufficient farming is still the de-facto way of life. The United States, for all the flaws prevalent in its small towns and villages, does not suffer this pre-modern affliction. The World Happiness Report, carried out by independent Finnish researchers, found that the USA was the 14th happiest country. China came 94th out of 156. The standard of living in China is not abhorrent, but it is significantly worse than that of the United States. Because of this, once again, the economic powerhouse of the United States is judged to be more powerful than that of China, though this is extremely likely to change in the near future. Chinese industrial power far outstrips any levels ever seen before in history, and cities are being built in mere months. Once China solves the issue of its rural population and continues on its steady path of high growth, it is almost certain that China will become more powerful than the US in the realm of the economy.

Finally, the much-debated idea of a “Culture War” will be briefly discussed. When weighing up the influence and power of a nation, culture may at first seem to be something divorced from the idea of a super (or even hyper) power. China recognised the importance of the concept of extreme cultural domination, however, and the Cultural Revolution took place within China from 1966 until 1976. It was a purge of liberal, western, feudal, and traditional ideas within the Chinese populace. Ideology was changed through mass-purge in the same manner as it had been purged in the Soviet Union, devastating the intellectual capacity of the country but ensuring a fairly dominable populace. However, we are not discussing cultural domination within a country, but rather cultural domination outside of a country. The influence of China ought not to be understated or underestimated. Chinese cities often appear in American media to appeal to the Chinese audience, and this is likely to continue into the future. We are seeing franchises such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe kow-tow to the Chinese line by releasing films about Chinese superheroes (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, set to release later in 2021). Chinese food and cuisine is also extremely popular all over the world, especially in the United States. Significant Chinese customs are passing down to the “West”. Chinese spiritualism has been widely accepted, with practices such as meditation being integrated into Western culture. However, Western domination cannot truly be overstated when it comes to culture. The vast majority of films and media created come from the West, and from the USA specifically. English is the most spoken language in the world, followed by Mandarin Chinese. International franchises such as McDonalds exist in 122 countries around the world. Chinese-started companies cannot truly boast the same. American cultural domination is not absolute, nor at the same heightened level that it existed at within the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, but is still extremely significant.

What conclusions have we reached, then? The United States has the most effective, though not the most extensive military. The US Navy is the most capable ocean-going organization in recorded (and unrecorded) history, even though the Chinese navy is technically larger in terms of ships. The US-led coalition of NATO, the reliable alliances of liberal democracies, the special relationship between the USA and the United Kingdom all contribute to US diplomatic dominance, even over the growing Asian coalition. US citizens are happier and wealthier than Chinese citizens. US cultural control is significant, though not absolute. The United States can no longer be referred to as a hyperpower. China is arguably a competitor to the United States in all of the categories that truly matter when ascertaining superpower status. Russia, too, wields influence, though not to the same degree that China does. However, it is almost foolish to argue that China has become more powerful than the United States. Pax Americana is still pervasive across the world, and US intervention in matters from the economy to military cannot be anything but expected for the coming future. China has extreme amounts of potential, but as everything stands right now, the United States still has a stable position as the most influential superpower, and indeed nation, on the global stage.