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UK house prices pick up in April after seven months of falls, but factory downturn deepens – business live | Business


Introduction: UK house prices rise in April after seven consecutive falls

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

UK house price growth picked up in April, building society Nationwide reports this morning, with the first monthly increase in seven month.

Average house prices rose by 0.5% last month, Nationwide’s data shows, following seven consecutive falls going back to last September.

The average price increased to £260,441, up from £257,122 in March.

This has lifted the annual rate of house price growth to -2.7%, from -3.1% in March (the biggest fall since 2009), as calm returned to the markets after the chaos of last autumn’s min-budget.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, reports there were “tentative signs of a recovery” in the market last month, although this still leaves prices 4% below their August 2022 peak.

Gardner explains:

“Recent Bank of England data suggests that housing market activity remained subdued in the opening months of 2023, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in February nearly 40% below the level prevailing a year ago, and around a third lower than pre-pandemic levels.

However, in recent months industry data on mortgage applications point to signs of a pickup.

Last month, Rightmove reported that asking prices were at record levels:

Photograph: Nationwide

Gardner says the recent pick-up in UK consumer confidence may be helping the housing market, but cautions that….

….any upturn is likely to remain fairly pedestrian, as it will take time for household finances to recover, since average earnings have been failing to keep pace with inflation, and by a wide margin over the last few years.

Mortgage interest rates are also likely to act as a headwind. While they are well below the highs seen in the wake of the mini-Budget last year, rates are still more than double the level prevailing a year ago.

Photograph: Nationwide

Also coming up today

Britain’s biggest supermarkets are facing calls for the UK’s competition watchdog to investigate claims of profiteering amid the cost of living crisis, as food price inflation soared to a record high in April.

Overnight, Australia’s central bank has surprised investors by raising interest rates again.

The RBA board raised its cash rate 25 basis points to 3.85% at its monthly meeting on Tuesday, defying investors who had bet the central bank would extend its pause for a second month.

Higher interest rates lift profits at banks….. such as HSBC, which has reported a three-fold jump in earnings in the last quarter, On a constant currency basis, HSBC’s profit before tax increased by $9.0bn to $12.9bn, leading the bank to launch up to $2bn of share buybacks and a 10 cent-per-share dividend.

BP has defied an easing in energy prices to post one of the largest first-quarter profits in its history, reigniting a debate over windfall gains by oil and gas firms.

The energy giant said its underlying profits hit $5bn (£4bn) in the first three months of the year, outstripping analysts’ forecasts. More on this shortly…

The latest factory PMI reports will show how manufacturers in the UK and the eurozone fared in April. That follows a surprise contraction in China’s factory output, reported on Sunday.

We get the latest eurozone inflation report this morning, with prices expected to have risen by 7% in the 12 months to April, up from 6.9%. Core inflation could stick at 5.7%, worryingly high for the European Central Bank.

The agenda

  • 7am BST: Nationwide house price index for April

  • 9am BST: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April

  • 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for April

  • 10am BST: Eurozone core inflation rate on April

  • 3pm BST: US Factory Orders for March

The further contraction in UK manufacturing in April “makes for gloomy reading”, says Dr John Glen, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.

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But there is a silver lining, he points out – falling demand led to an easing of both supply and inflationary pressures on the sector.

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Glen says post-Brexit costs pushed down overseas demand:

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The overall downturn was driven by subdued market sentiment and client cost cutting, with consumer and intermediate goods producers hardest hit. Falling exports demonstrated diminishing demand from EU, US and China for UK manufacturing in response to ongoing Brexit and trade-related costs.

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The investment goods sector was the only notable bright spot, with export order growth hitting a 20-month high. “The lull in manufacturing activity did provide breathing space for supply bottlenecks to work their way out of the system, with improved material availability and shorter delivery times being reported.

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While there is still uncertainty about the future and potential for further geopolitical instability to destabilise trade flows, there is hope that we are coming to the end of the significant supply chain disruption which has gripped the sector for the last three years.”

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Maddie Walker, Industry X lead at Accenture UK, says the slowdown in rising costs is encouraging:

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“These results are a reminder that it is going to be a rocky road to recovery for the UK’s manufacturing sector. However, it’s positive to see an optimistic outlook remaining amongst companies, with widespread expectation that output will rise during the coming year. It’s also encouraging to see cost increases starting to slow as well as delivery times shortening, in a sign that some of the supply chain issues that have defined the sector for the past few years are starting to ease.

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Continued investment into supply chain resilience, digitisation and modernising the workforce will help stabilise manufacturers and position the sector well for a return to growth once demand improves.”

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Rising interest rates and inflation have dampened demand for manufactured goods, points out Glynn Bellamy, UK Head of Industrial Products at KPMG:

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“Supply has improved and some input costs have fallen, yet the UK manufacturing sector is struggling compared to some parts of the economy – as domestic and export demand for manufactured goods remains subdued by the cost of living crisis and short-term demand is adversely impacted by de-stocking in supply chains. The latter is the negative side of the easing of supply chain pressures and the unwind of the benefit many manufacturers experienced in 2021 and 2022 as there was a drive to build safety stock levels. Production volumes have subsequently fallen, costing jobs in the sector.

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“Whilst some input costs have fallen, UK energy prices remain significantly in excess of those in North America and the Far East, placing ongoing pressure on UK competitiveness. Given these dynamics, UK manufacturing needs an upturn in global consumer confidence to lead to more big ticket purchasing, but manufacturers will be acutely aware how volatile the global consumer landscape remains, particularly with the ongoing uncertainty over future interest rate rises.”

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HSBC’s chief executive has denied the possibility of a fresh banking crisis, saying the failure of four banks in six weeks was a merely a sign of poor risk management, as the lender tripled its own first quarter profits to $13bn (£10bn) after its rescue of Silicon Valley Bank UK.

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Noel Quinn’s comments came a day after JP Morgan stepped in to buy most of the collapsed lender First Republic in a $10.6bn takeover, as part of regulators’ efforts to draw a line under lingering turmoil across the banking sector.

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“We’re pleased that there was a resolution on First Republic at the weekend so that that situation has been resolved,” Quinn told journalists during a conference call on Tuesday.

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“We do not believe that there is a global banking crisis on the horizon. We think there are some challenges that have been evidenced in some of the regional banks in the US, but we do not believe that’s systemic in the US, or across all banks.”

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First Republic – which focuses on high net worth clients – is the fourth global bank to collapse since early March, after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, the New York-headquartered lender Signature Bank and Switzerland’s second-largest bank, Credit Suisse.

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More here:

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The downturn in the UK manufacturing sector continued in April as factories were hit by weak demand, the latest survey of factory purchasing managers shows.

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April’s manufacturing PMI survey shows that output and new orders at UK factories contracted last month, as the manufacturing downturn continued.

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Output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases all contracted during April, with companies reporting a drop in demand, due to “client destocking” as customers tried to cut their costs.

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This pulled the S&P Global / CIPS UK manufacturing PMI down to a three-month low of 47.8 in April, from 47.9 in March, below the 50-point mark showing stagnation – but better than the earlier flash estimate of 46.6.

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New export orders contracted for the fifteenth consecutive month, with firms reporting softer demand from the US, China and mainland Europe.

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But, there are also signs that supply chain pressures have eased. Manufacturers’ business optimism rose to 14-month high, while vendor delivery times shortened for the third successive month.

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The rates of increase in average input costs and output charges both eased in April, falling to 35- and 28-month lows respectively.

","elementId":"ba3c11d8-4fc9-45bb-a0e4-c017ee882e6c"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

The downturn in the #UK manufacturing sector continued in April (#PMI at 47.8; Mar: 47.9) amid sustained contractions in output and new orders. But there is a silver lining in the fact that supply and inflationary pressures eased on the month. Read more: https://t.co/TtSS4TDrnu pic.twitter.com/iub3OFVTXC

— S&P Global PMI™ (@SPGlobalPMI) May 2, 2023
","url":"https://twitter.com/SPGlobalPMI/status/1653317090613542914","id":"1653317090613542914","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"b9230682-3341-4820-b91e-18977f416019"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

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“The UK manufacturing sector remained in the doldrums at the start of the second quarter. Output and new orders contracted, as manufacturers felt the impacts of client uncertainty, destocking and tightening cost controls.

\n

There was no escape from the subdued mood of the market, with both domestic and export customers remaining reticent to commit to new contracts.

\n
","elementId":"ebd1a399-5336-43ef-8f3a-a154906dfdd4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

But, the fall in supplier lead time is better news, helping to push down raw material price pressures, Dobson adds:

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“Better-running supply chains have helped manufacturers reduce backlogs of orders, accumulated in prior months amid component shortages. But the concern is that these backlogs are being depleted, leaving firms with less work in hand.

\n

There may be some light on the horizon, as manufacturers remain stoically optimistic about the outlook for the year ahead. Over 60% of firms expect to expand production over the next 12 months. But demand will need to pick up in the months ahead to warrant any increase in production, and with the UK seeing stubbornly high domestic inflation coupled with a worsening export trend, risks seem skewed to the downside.”

\n
","elementId":"fc6ea4d6-c869-40cc-8ac9-ae9738b6c7fc"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1683016350000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"04.32 EDT","blockLastUpdated":1683017359000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"04.49 EDT","blockFirstPublished":1683017109000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"04.45 EDT","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"04.45","title":"UK manufacturing downturn continues as demand falls","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Tue 2 May 2023 05.10 EDT","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Tue 2 May 2023 02.19 EDT"},{"id":"6450c5c78f0856aad1f27ac6","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

The eurozone factory downturn deepened last month, according to the latest survey of purchasing managers, while raw material prices have dropped.

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The HCOB final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, has fallen to 45.8 in April from March’s 47.3. That is slightly better than the ‘flash’ reading of 45.5, but well below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for the 10th month in a row.

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The PMI was pulled down by a drop in the cost of raw materials, which suggests inflationary pressures are easing. Firms reported the biggest drop in operating expenses in almost three years.

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This allowed firms to slow their own price rises; the output prices index fell to a 29-month low of 51.6 from 53.4.

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An index measuring output fell below the breakeven mark to 48.5 from 50.4.

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Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, says:

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\n

“This decline has been fairly broad-based across the euro zone, with regional PMI indices in France and Italy also showing a drop in output, while output in Germany and Spain was nearly stagnant.”

\n
","elementId":"ee95a5c2-2bd2-4223-bdc5-5d08c54e40f1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"

Manufacturing output across the #eurozone declined in April for the first time since January, leading the #PMI to a 35-month low of 45.8 (Mar: 47.3). However, this was accompanied by falling input #costs and improving #supply conditions. Read more: https://t.co/HkHWeQVuKY pic.twitter.com/AsvjECFJdO

— S&P Global PMI™ (@SPGlobalPMI) May 2, 2023
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The surprise rise in UK house prices in April is reigniting interest in how high the Bank of England may raise interest rates this year.

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Professor Costas Milas, of the Management School at University of Liverpool, argues that the BoE could lift interest rates to 4.75% this year.

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In a new blogpost, Professor Milas explains that high public expectations of inflation have the potential of putting additional pressure on current inflation through demand for higher wages.

","elementId":"d3f16562-34fb-4388-a1e1-5bd45541afbc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

But this prediction is conditional on financial stress not escalating further. If, instead, financial stress worries take over, UK interest rates might end up below 4% by the end of 2023, he suggests.

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Professor Milas says:

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\n

In fact, there is growing expectation that the Chancellor of the Exchequer will increase the level for guaranteed UK deposits, from £85,000 currently. This suggests to me that UK regulators are somewhat worried that we have not fully escaped the risk of a financial/banking crisis.

\n

Therefore, I do not rule out the possibility that the BoE will cut UK interest rates below 4 per cent by the end of the year.

\n

JPMorgan’s move (over the weekend) to acquire most of failed US bank First Republic is a (constant) reminder that financial stress is not over.

\n
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The full blogpost is here:

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Predicting the short-term outlook for UK interest rates

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Shares in UK housebuilders have jumped this morning, after Nationwide reported an unexpected increase in UK house prices last month.

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Persimmon are up 5.8% in early trading, with Barratt Development (+2.5%) and Taylor Wimpey (+2.5%) and Berkeley Group (+2%) also in the top FTSE 100 risers.

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The sector could also be benefitting from reports that Rishi Sunak is drawing up plans to boost support for first-time home buyers.

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According to The Times, officials in Downing Street and the Treasury are looking at proposals to help thousands of renters who have been unable to get on the housing ladder in the face of high prices and rising interest rates.

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In the City, shares in BP have dropped by 4.5% in early trading despite the oil giant reporting bumper profits of aroudn $5bn for the last quarter.

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BP made $4.963bn on its favoured profit measure in January-March, up from $4.8bn in October-December 2022, but lower than the $6.245bn in Q1 2022 when the Ukraine war drove up prices.

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That was ahead of expectations for $4.3bn, and BP’s second-best result since 2012 thanks to strong oil and gas trading.

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Bernard Looney, BP’s chief executive officer, says Q1 was “a quarter of strong performance and strategic delivery”, adding:

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\n

And importantly we continue to deliver for shareholders, through disciplined investment, lowering net debt and growing distributions.

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But investors, somewhat ungratefully, seem disappointed that BP has cut its share buyback programme. The company plans to spend another $1.75bn buying up its stock, lower than the $2.75bn share buyback announced after the last quarter of 2022.

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