Oscar Predictions 2021: The 93rd annual Academy Awards, happening this Sunday night, will not be business as usual. Yes, there are still message movies, biopics, expertly acted dramas, and various movie stars milling about dreaming of golden statues, but otherwise things are different. We’re already in late April for one when the Oscar season is usually a distant memory. The COVID-19 pandemic has made all awards shows into Zoom meetings with breakaway rooms, considerably lowering their appeal (and ratings). It’s been ages since we’ve been able to see celebrities on red carpets, interacting with each other, and holding their trophies. Frivolous as these pleasures may be, they are missed! Nevertheless the show must go on. This year’s ceremony is doing things a bit differently — how differently we won’t know until Sunday night — including a pre-show “Oscars: Into the Spotlight” where all five Original Song contenders will be performed.

So who is going to win this year? It’s anyone’s guess. Oscar pundits agree that this is the most confusing Oscar race ever in quite a few categories. That’s exciting and potentially embarrassing for anyone who loves the guesswork. Let’s get right to the possibly terribly misguided assumptions…

PICTURE

The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: Nomadland, Choe Zhao’s study of displaced Americans living on the road, and the grief of one drifter (Frances McDormand) who has lost her husband, home, and job.
Could Win: Trial of the Chicago 7 if Oscar voters are feeling aesthetically conservative about the celebration of their liberal values. It’s a very traditional filmmaking in the ancient courtroom drama genre.
Should Win: My heart belongs to Minari, my head to The Father, and my eyes and ears are attuned to what Sound of Metal is delivering (they all made my top ten list). But there’s just something about Nomadland that’s ineffable, brilliant, and hard to shake. The frontrunner deserves the gold.

DIRECTOR

Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”

Will Win /Should Win: Chloe Zhao has basically swept the precursors and she will also take the Oscar for Nomadland (even if it loses Best Picture). She’ll only be the second woman to ever win this prize (after Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker) and the first woman of color.
Could Win: It’s Zhao, 100%. The easiest category to predict this year.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

Will Win: In the 20 years I’ve been writing about the Oscars professionally I’ve never seen a Best Actress race this tight. Usually the win is between two performers at this point if it’s not already wrapped up for a prize-sweeping star. This time it’s still anyone’s game. Andra Day won the Globe, Viola Davis won the SAG, Mulligan won the Critics Choice, McDormand won the BAFTA. In the end I’m predicting McDormand assuming that half of Hollywood wishes they had her confidence and steel (given her iconoclastic ‘give no f***s’ persona) and the other half agrees she’s a great actress. Nomadland‘s prominence will give her just enough boost for voters to ignore that she already has two Best Actress Oscars.
Could Win: Nobody but Kirby would be a surprise at this point.
Should Win: They’re all so great but it’s a tossup between McDormand’s unerringly authentic drifter and Mulligan’s instantly iconic avenging angel.

Fun trivia: There are multiple ways for Oscar to make history with their choice. If Davis wins it will be the first time a Black woman has won two Oscars in any field. If Davis or Day wins it will only be the second time that a Black woman has won Best Actress (after Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball). If McDormand wins she’ll becomes the second biggest winner in this category of all time, behind only Katharine Hepburn who won Best Actress four times. (Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman also won three Oscars but one of each of their statues was for a supporting role)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Youn Yuh-jung, “Minari”

Will Win: Momentum is with Youn Yuh-jung for playing the fun-loving Korean grandmother in Minari. If she wins she’ll only be the second Asian woman to take home an acting Oscar. The first was Miyoshi Umeki in Sayonara (1957).
Could Win: Glenn Close if Oscar voters are feeling guilty about stiffing her for The Wife (2018)… or Dangerous Liaisons (1988)… or Fatal Attraction (1987)… or The Wolf According to Garp (1982). Seriously what does she have to do?!? This is her 8th nomination and if she loses she ties Peter O’Toole’s all-time record for most acting nominations without a win.
Should Win: All five of these performances are admirable (yes, even Glenn’s… it’s hard to be good in a terrible movie!) but Youn Yuh-jung please.

Trivia: If Amanda Seyfried mysteriously wins the Oscar all three generations of Mamma Mia! actresses (Cher, Streep, and Seyfried) will have beaten Glenn Close to an Oscar win. Credit for this hilarious stat goes to Jorge Molina of the “Just to be Nominated” podcast.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman will surely triumph, posthumously, for his electric work as a frustrated ambitious musician in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. What a talent we lost.
Could Win: In any other year Sir Anthony Hopkins would have been cruising to a second win for playing the intricate dance of confusion, anger, and loneliness of dementia in The Father.
Should Win: I’m torn between Ahmed and Hopkins, but if you replaced Gary Oldman with Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) this would have been one of the all time greatest Best Actor lists.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Will Win: This category is ridiculous and deserves no careful consideration since it’s mostly leading men miscategorized as supporting players. Being a lead will always give you an advantage in the supporting category (which is why it’s so unfair but it’s been happening with increased frequently in the past couple of decades). The Oscar will go to Daniel Kaluuya in a landslide as the titular messiah of Judas and the Black Messiah.
Could Win: There’s no dethroning Kaluuya who checks every single Oscar box: leading role in the supporting category, well liked previous nominee, playing a real life person, tons of “Oscar clips” and an important film.
Should Win: Breakthrough performances are always such a joy to witness. Paul Raci was brilliant delivering the grounding gut punch Riz Ahmed needed in a true supporting role as his tough love mentor in Sound of Metal.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“Borat Subsequent MovieFilm”
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami”
“The White Tiger”

Will Win/ Should Win: Though the ballots don’t contain names in the craft categories (just film titles) enough voters might realize that Chloe Zhao doesn’t need four statues for one film (Nomadland) since she’s its producer, editor, director, and writer. As Oscar voting hit it seemed like finally people were talking about how strong The Father actually is. So let’s assume this is where they reward it. It’s masterfully written by Florian Zeller adapting his own Tony-nominated play with the help of Oscar winner Christopher Hampton (Dangerous Liaisons)
Could Win: Nomadland. Prior to the nominations we assumed Kemp Powers was taking this prize for adapting his own play One Night in Miami but since the film version underperformed in nominations, it’s now a long shot.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Will Win: This is another category that’s hard to predict. Promising Young Woman has a passionate fanbase and the British writer/director/actress Emerald Fennell won the BAFTA in this category. On the other hand Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari all arguably overperformed in nomination tallies suggesting that they really love these three films. When the smoke clears on this tight race we think Aaron Sorkin takes home Oscar #2 for Trial of the Chicago 7, because it’s the most “scripted” of these if not the best and the votes will be spread to all five films.
Could Win / Should Win: Promising Young Woman which is the most audacious of these and the most original though we should note that ‘original’ in this category title isn’t referring to a fresh voice but to ‘not based on pre-existing material like a book or a play’.

ORIGINAL SONG

“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
“lo Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami…”.

Will Win: While “Speak Now,” beautifully written/sung by Leslie Odom Jr, is the assumed frontrunner, I’m going out on a limb here to suggest that the overall Academy love for Judas and the Black Messiah is reflected in a surprise win here for “Fight For You”
Could Win: “Speak Now”
Should Win: The only one of these songs that is actually crucial to its storytelling is “Husavik” which is both a beautiful song and an excellent send-up of Eurovision ballads. Oscar voters need to stop voting for end credits songs if they want this category to actual be about filmmaking (as the other categories actually are).

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Tenet”

Will Win: Here is finally Mank‘s place to shine, given its recreations of Old Hollywood.
Could Win: If it turns out that voters only grudgingly admire Mank, News of the World could be a surprise winner since it stunningly recreates settlements and towns of the broken hostile post Civil War era in Texas.
Should Win: Such a good category. Mank and News of the World would both make excellent winners. The Father doesn’t have a prayer of winning but the work done on the visually shifting sets is subtly mesmerizing.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Nomadland”
“Trial of the Chicago 7”

Will Win: This is a tight race, presumably between Nomadland‘s magic hour landscapes and weathered faces and Mank‘s shimmery glamour. We’re going to guess Nomadland takes it…
Could Win: …but black and white movies often impress voters in the craft category so Mank could overcome the Best Picture frontrunner to win this one, too.
Should Win: Nomadland

Trivia note: Nomadland cinematographer Joshua James Richards is director Chloe Zhao’s partner offscreen. This is the first time romantic partners will win the Director/Cinematography Oscars together (unless there was some clandestine homosexual affair from Old Hollywood we aren’t aware of between a director and his director of photography).

COSTUME DESIGN

“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Mulan”
“Pinocchio”

Will Win/Should Win: Ann Roth, the legendary costume designer behind Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is 89 years old and still working regularly and exquisitely. We hope she wins… though the one obstacle might be the lack of variety since Ma Rainey takes place mostly on a single day so there aren’t many costume changes.
Could Win: Emma has the advantage of “Most” costumes but they’re also fairly extraordinary and it would make a fine winner, too.

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND

“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
“Sound of Metal”

Will Win/Should Win: Sound of Metal’s POV sound design has won raves from its very first screenings, helping immerse the audience in what it’s like to be torn between the hearing and the deaf world.
Could Win: The other contenders are just happy to be nominated.

ORIGINAL SCORE

“Da 5 Bloods”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“News of the World”
“Soul”

Will Win: Precursor awards of all sizes and varieties have thrown flowers at Soul and Oscar will too. This means Nine Inch Nails will now be two-time Oscar winners; Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross previously won for The Social Network‘s score. Jon Batiste shares this nomination with them.
Could Win: If there’s a shocking spoiler, perhaps News of the World sneaks in? James Newton Howard is on his ninth nomination and he’s never won.
Should Win: The great and handsome Italian composer Emile Mosseri is on the rise in Hollywood and Minari is yet another sterling example of his gifts.

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
“Tenet”

Will Win: This is a bit of a tough call as no one is really talking about these movies in the absence of the usual blockbusters that populate these categories. So let’s say Tenet which at least was talked about earlier in the year.
Could Win: The industry probably did sample The Midnight Sky since it represented George Clooney sticking his toes back into the movies.
Should Win: The great LGBTQ documentary Welcome to Chechnya was on the finalist list and we’re still angry that it missed a nomination since its work to “veil” the endangered community in Russia was both groundbreaking and a humanitarian achievement. But since we can’t have that one, our heart belongs to the fun and well designed creatures of Love and Monsters.

FILM EDITING

“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Will Win: Sound of Metal has emerged as a soft frontrunner in this category but this is still anyone’s game.
Could Win: My gut says that Metal is neck and neck with Trial of the Chicago 7 . The latter is competently edited but doesn’t push the needle on this particular craft. That doesn’t always matter since the whole Academy votes on the winners (whereas the individual branches vote on the nominees) and not all of them are well-versed in editing.
Should Win: The Father does for editing what Sound of Metal does for sound, making it a crucial POV experience.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”

Will Win: Give us Ma Rainey’s ‘Deep Moanin Blues’ and smeared greasepaint.
Could Win: The Academy sometimes ignores the “Hairstyling” part of this award but if they don’t this year, Emma and those ridiculously elaborate wigs could easily take this.
Should Win: Abstain. I didn’t get a chance to see Pinocchio but it’s supposedly stupendous in terms of makeup.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Another Round” – Denmark
“Better Days” – Hong Kong
“Collective” – Romania
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” – Tunisia
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” – Bosnia and Herzegovina

Will Win: Denmark is currently Oscar’s favourite foreign country in this category (Italy and France are the all time champs) being nominated very frequently for the past twelve years. This one goes to the entertaining Another Round… especially since it’s also nominated for Best Director.
Could Win: There’s a passionate fanbase for Quo Vadis Aida out there so if there’s an upset look no further.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”

Will Win: The shorts categories often result in surprising winners since there’s so little conversation about them before Oscar night. It’s anyone’s guess. I suspect it will be either the sentimental groundbreaking casting of “Feeling Through” starring an actually deaf and blind actor, or “Two Distant Strangers” which combines both the currently popular subgenre of the time-loop (thanks Groundhog Day) with the #BLM movement
Could Win: The Letter Room stars Oscar Isaac (his wife is the director) as a prison worker assigned to handle the correspondence of the death-row inmates so if they need a little starpower, look no further.
Should Win: My favourite finalists all missed the nominations (argh!) so from what remains The Present about a Palestinian man who runs into trouble at the border while trying to buy his wife a gift is the strongest.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”

Will Win: Soul has his locked up.
Should Win: Every movie made by Ireland’s Cartoon Saloon has been nominated in this category. Sadly they’ve yet to win since voters always default to Disney. Wolfwalkers is arguably the best yet from Cartoon Saloon.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”

Will Win: “If Anything Happens I Love You” is the most immediately potent of these shorts and it also has the highest profile.
Could Win: “Burrow” if voters want to keep it simple with a cute and funny short.
Should Win: “Opera” is incredibly stunning and strange and memorable and meant to play on loop. It’s difficult to describe but hard to forget!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Collective”
“Crip Camp”
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
“Time”

Could Win: Anything. Crip Camp about a summer camp for disabled teens, and Time about a woman fighting for the release of her husband from prison, would make more traditional winners in this category and both have won many raves. The foreign nominees Romania’s enraging investigation Collective and Chile’s adorable, funny, and sad The Mole Agent are both well loved too. With all these critical darlings populating the category, we’re guessing the most accessible audience favourite wins out. That’d be the octopus. My Octopus Teacher is a hit on Netflix and its inspiring pretty amusing reactions online.

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

“Colette”
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song For Latasha”

Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation which profiles the film composer Kris Bowers and his grandfather is life affirming and Oscar voters might want that after an exhausting year.
Could Win / Should Win: Hunger Ward, about feeding centers and exhausted healthcare workers in war torn Yeme, is the heaviest film nominated but it’s hard to shake .

Who do you think will win? The 93rd Oscars will air live on ABC on Sunday, April 25, 2021. The preshow begins at 3:30 PM PT / 6:30 PM ET and the Ceremony commences at 5:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET

Previously on Towleroad: Oscar Predictions 2021

Oscars 2021 Quick Guide: What To Watch and Where To Stream Nominees Before The Show Sunday Night