Election forecasting has been a trend in Indian Political domain for so many years. Karnataka Election is considered to be a dress rehearsal for Lok Sabha Elections next year and all political pundits are calculating minutely the fate of Karnataka. As of now, most of these self-acclaimed pundits are calling for a hung assembly in Karnataka. But the automatic question is whether they have missed any vital aspect or not.
No doubt, considering Election mandates over the years, especially in the last five year, Indian voters prefer to back single party rather than bringing any short-term alliance. As of now, both BJP and Congress have vowed to fight on their own and there is still no explicit signs of BJP – JD(S) alliance against the Congress.
Considering the specific constituencies and the political demography, a closer analysis is necessary. First and foremost, there has been ample discussion on Lingayat issue. In Northern Karnataka, 14 of the 30 districts in the state constitution the Lingayat belt. This comprises 104 of the 224 Assembly seats which also reflects BJP stronghold.
As far as coastal Karnataka is concerned, which comprises of 33 seats, both BJP and Congress are equally poised to get ahead in the election. In Bengaluru, which the tech capital of India, has 28 seats.
Among those seats, 18 are from urban and comprise the cosmopolitan population. The case of Mysore is different as JD(S) has stronger vote base among the Vokkaligas. Thus it is clear that oversimplifying with political stalemate is improbable in this case.
The role of Siddaramaiah is going to be important but he faces strong anti-incumbency factor working against him. His rainbow social coalition of minorities titled AHINDA hasn’t been successful either.
He even tried to portray Amit Shah and Narendra Modi but didn’t get many takers among the common mass. Overall it can be said that BJP stands a very good chance against all odds and paid coverages in the media.