This article is written by Aman Rizwan

Background:

Before getting into this article, you must know some historical facts regarding this issue so that you have more knowledge about the conflict. In 1990 when East and West Germany got reunited at that time Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev and American President agreed that NATO will stop its expansion towards the East (Towards Russian Border) and they will not expand any further from Germany, But as the time passed the US and NATO didn’t stick to that agreement and started expanding NATO alliance towards the East as this wasn’t an agreement in wiring but it was verbal.

How things went South in 2022:

Now fast-forward to the year 2022, Ukraine officially had been giving signals to the world that they are getting the membership of the NATO. Now this was not just a signal to world rather a challenge to the regional heavy weight and their neighbour Russia. And because this is quiet an unusual happening which is directly affecting Russia’s national security, Russia invades Ukraine on the 24th of February, 2022 and starts a full scale war with Ukraine.

But before proceeding further I’ll would like to bring you a flashback of somewhat a similar thing. The very similar scenario occured in 1962 known as the Cuban Missiles Crisis, when the US acted way more aggressively in a similar situation. Cuba is a small Island just South of the US and the government in Cuba was communist and Soviet Union (today’s Russia) was supporting that government because Soviet Union was also in favour of a socialist government and that of course, was a headache for the US as their miles away rival and enemy Soviet Union is virtually sitting near them in Cuba. Now this was a very serious threat to the powerful US, so they tried to topple the Pro Soviet Union Cuban Government of Fidel Castro, but this attempt failed known as the failed Bay Of Pigs Mission. The Cuban supremo called Soviet Union and asked them to provide security for his country’s defense to protect his country from a possible American attack. So in response, the Soviet Union deployed heavy nuclear and conventional arsenal in Cuba. Now seeing all this activity, American foreign office warned Soviet Union to remove nuclear missiles from Cuba but Soviet Union placed reciprocal demand infront of America that first they remove their missiles from Italy and Turkey. Now these diplomatic attacks intensified and almost lead to a nuclear war but at the end, backdoor diplomacy saved the day, brought the US defense readiness back to DEFCON V, and both heavy weights agreed to remove their missiles from Cuba Italy and Turkey. Now the history repeats itself and this time Russia is reacting the same way as the US did in 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Russia invaded Ukraine, and they are facing a lot of resistance from Ukraine because according to Russains there are large silos of arsenal in Ukraine which is provided by Americans and NATO.

The war started and is still going on and the big G7 countries have imposed serious economic embargoes on Russia. Global brands Like KFC, and Mc. Donalds Apple, Samsung, IKEA, H&M, Nestle, Nike, Adidas, Unilever, etc suspend their operations in Russia.  Obviously they had an economic loss at first, but now it’s Russia’s turn to retaliate against the economic warfare that was started by the US and Its European Allies. Vladimir Putin decided to retaliate with full power against Europe and played the Trump card and cut its crude oil and LNG production by more than 50%.

Now this heavy economic attack jolts not only Europe but the whole world! This step has resulted in sky rocking fuel prices. The global supply chain which was just recovering from the impact of the global pandemic, is now facing another big crisis. But this crisis is way large for European countries than the rest of the world because they’re not only facing high commodity prices, but as Russia reduced its supply to the Nord Stream Gas Pipeline, Europeans are now facing an acute shortage of fuels, which is leading to their industry to shut down. They are facing extreme energy shortage which is heavily impacting their economy in the upcoming winter season. These energy crises probably would get worse, and their household users may face heating problems.

So who will benefit from it all?

Now I’m not certain who will be the major beneficiary in this Ukraine-Russia war, but one thing is clear that in this whole exercise, Europeans turn out to be the biggest losers.

Russia is now charging three times higher energy prices than it was before the war. Now this move is so powerful that it can bring whole Europe to its knees and in future to their negotiating table. So we can say that it looks like Russia has an upper hand in this whole scenario, but we shall wait for the things to unfold further to predict anything with surety.

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Sanctions Work In The Favour Of The Sanctioned

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