The South Australian Liberals are set to retain the prized state seat of Bragg in a byelection forced by the resignation of the former deputy premier Vickie Chapman – but not before being pushed to the wire, AAP reports.

With only postal and pre-poll votes to count this week, Liberal Jack Batty is clinging to a narrow lead over Labor’s Alice Rolls after another big swing to the ALP.

With about 50% counted, Batty had 50.9% of the two-party preferred vote to 49.1% for Rolls.

In the March state election, Chapman’s 16% margin was halved to 8%.

But most of that has now been wiped out in another strong performance by Labor, with the party also benefiting through preferences from the Greens.

Greens candidate Jim Bastiras attracted almost 18% of the primary vote, well up on the 13% the party managed at the state election.

About 9,000 voters cast either an early ballot or applied to vote by post in Bragg, with those ballots to be counted from Monday. They could now prove crucial to the result.

For all of the drama that forever surrounds Nick Kyrgios, there has been one undeniable constant of his season so far – his tennis.

Quietly, Kyrgios is playing some of the best tennis of his life and – even though he has competed sparingly – almost every time he has taken to the court this year his level has been high.

As a consequence, he has put himself in the position for the deep grand slam run that has evaded him so far in his career. But when so much toxicity constantly surrounds him, talking only about Kyrgios’ tennis can sometimes seem like the most difficult task in the world.

In a contest that lived up to all of the anticipation, from gripping, quality tennis to farcical, unhinged chaos, Kyrgios inserted himself deep into Stefanos Tsitsipas’s psyche and eventually emerged as a victor, defeating Tsitsipas, the No 4 seed, 6-7 (2), 6-4, 6-3 7-6 (7) to reach the fourth round of Wimbledon.

Afterwards, Tsitsipas called Kyrgios a bully and suggested that the tour should act to stop his on-court antics:

It’s constant bullying, that’s what he does. He bullies the opponents. He was probably a bully at school himself. I don’t like bullies. I don’t like people that put other people down. He has some good traits in his character, as well. But he also has a very evil side to him.

For the full story read Tumaini Carayol’s report from Wimbledon.

Related: Nick Kyrgios called ‘evil bully’ by Tsitsipas after stormy encounter

For the data-driven types keeping track:

Meanwhile, things are getting intense on the Hawkesbury-Nepean river.

The acting prime minister, Richard Marles, has said he is “deeply committed” to reforming the Australian Defence Force after the Afghanistan war crimes inquiry, declaring that “history will judge us”.

In an interview with Guardian Australia, the defence minister said the nation must “make right this appalling set of circumstances” and he promised to keep parliament informed of progress – a step avoided by his predecessor, Peter Dutton.

Marles said the new government was not going to “rake over old coals in terms of decisions that have been made by the former government”.

This indicates he is unlikely to revoke the meritorious unit citation from more than 3,000 current and former ADF members who served in Afghanistan between 2007 and 2013, given that Dutton decided against doing so in April last year. Dutton overruled advice from defence leadership.

But Marles said it was “hugely important” to implement lasting reforms following the “deeply troubling” findings of the inquiry headed by Maj Gen Paul Brereton.

The inquiry found “credible” information to implicate 25 current or former ADF personnel in the alleged unlawful killing of 39 individuals and the cruel treatment of two others.

For all the details, read the full story by Guardian Australia’s foreign affairs and defence correspondent, Daniel Hurst.

Related: ‘History will judge us’: Richard Marles commits to defence reform after Afghan war crimes inquiry

Backyard bee keepers are being asked to spy on the stingless native variety in a bid to unravel their mysterious sex lives.

Native bees are essential workers when it comes to pollinating Australia’s indigenous plants and wildflowers, but scientists know far more about the reproductive habits of introduced species.

Queensland University researcher Dr Tobias Smith says he hopes to change that by recruiting an amateur army willing to monitor hives on their farms, gardens or schoolyards.

“It’s as easy as watching a hive’s entrance for three minutes a week and recording information about bee behaviour,” Smith said.

One of the mysteries he wants to solve is how native stingless bees set up new colonies.

“When European honey bees want to create a new colony they send off a big swarm of bees; half the bees from a colony with the queen, and they fly off to find a new place to nest,” Smith said.

“Back at the old place a princess takes over with the other half of the bees. Now that’s big, obvious and dramatic.”

But Smith said the process with native bees was difficult to study because the process was less clear-cut.

“It is a much more cryptic process where bees travel back and forth to the new colony site over many weeks or months,” he said.

Instead of the queen leaving to set up a colony, as is the case with European honey bees, native stingless bee queens can’t fly – and instead a princess daughter must venture out to establish a new base.

“We know really basic things about these broad differences, but all the little details and how often this happens we know pretty much nothing about,” Smiths said.

Visit the website for more information on how to join the Native Bee Citizen Science Project.

– from AAP.

Sydney residents urged to stay home

Cooke speaking again now saying that “it is really not the time to travel if you are in those area that are impacted” and authorities are expecting the worst of the weather system to hit over the next 24 hours.

These weather events have rolled through our state consistently this year and I’d very much acknowledge the impact that they continue to have on our communities.

Evacuation centres set up for those fleeing Sydney floods

Carlene York from New South Wales State Emergency Services advises people to take precautions – prepare evacuation bags now, pay attention to flood warnings and leave early if they are in an at-risk area.

Evacuation centres have been set up for people who need them and people are warned to be careful of falling trees and items from balconies.

Thunderstorm warning issued for Sydney

Golding warned of incoming thunderstorms developing which will increase the risk of flash flooding:

For the Sydney area, we can expect more heavy rain today, particularly out towards the Blue Mountains and the western Sydney area over the Hawkesbury-Nepean, and we can expect more heavy rainfall to affect the Central Coast and other parts of the Hunter district today.

Golding asked residents along the Nepean river to pay attention to warnings and listen to emergency services as the flood waters reach their peak.

And this your regular reminder not to drive into flood waters – and if you absolutely have to because it is a life-threatening emergency, wind down your windows first.

Jane Golding from the Bureau of Meteorology is now giving an update on an “unfortunate rainfall event”, including rainfall measures and flood warnings.

Golding:

Over the last 24 hours alone, some locations – many locations – have experienced upwards of 200mm, and some along the Illawarra, close to 350mm.

The East Coast Low is continuing to develop as forecast and the forecast is for it to continue to develop and track slowly southwards and closer to the Hunter coast and to the Sydney coast over the next 24 hours.

The signs are it will remain in our region through until Tuesday before gradually shifting offshore some more.

SES have conducted 29 flood rescues in 24 hours

Cook:

In the same at 24 hours, they have conducted, with the support of our other emergency service organisations, 29 flood rescues. In the space of 24 hours, we have seen at 945 SES personnel stood up and working around the clock to respond to this current and unfolding emergency situation with this weather system.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued an update extending the area covered by its severe weather warning across western Sydney and up the NSW coast.

Rain totals in the 24 hours to 9am Sunday AEST reached 93mm for Sydney’s Observatory Hill, while Camden in the city’s south-west reached 156mm. Both Lucas Heights and the Holsworthy defence site received about 240mm.

The Bureau of Meteorology issued multiple warnings of severe weather and also flood warnings for the region.

All eyes are on the Warragamba dam as water levels continue to build to capacity – and beyond.

The rate at which it is filling is forcing calculations to be rerun and currently it is believed the rate will nudge 500Gl/day – or a quarter of the massive dam’s total capacity.

In addition to the risk of a major flooding event – the third this year – that will put the lives and property of those living on the floodplain downriver at risk, the concern about the spill relates to timing: it began about half a day earlier than expected.

It is a reminder of how fast weather events can moved as climate change increasingly makes systems more energetic.

According to the CSIRO, climate change is expected to make heavy rainfall events more intense as warmer air can hold more water vapour. Every degree of global warming results in a 7% increase in atmospheric moisture.

On abortion, Pocock says “we can’t take … hard-won gains for granted”:

As has been pointed out by many people – you can’t ban abortions, all you can do is ban access to safe abortions. And clearly the cost of abortions in Australia disproportionately affect vulnerable women in our communities and women who live in regional and rural Australia. I believe it should be covered by Medicare and the PBS.

On the recognition of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament:

We have got the oldest living cultures in the world here in Australia and we need that wisdom, leadership and connection to this incredible continent more than ever. To me, the Uluru Statement from the Heart is the most generous offering to all Australians and I back it in in its entirety.

And that’s a wrap!

Allocation of parliamentary staff should be ‘decided by independent body’, Pocock says

On the staffing issue, which has been the first big division in the new parliament, Pocock says he “doesn’t feel like he is in a fight” but the cut will limit his ability to meet with constituents and review legislation as it comes in.

For me, the thing that this has highlighted is the allocation of staff should probably be decided by an independent body at an arm’s length and shouldn’t be decided by the prime minister of the day. I think you said earlier in the week, you know, this staffing shouldn’t be used to reward or punish anyone.

The conversation now turns to a national integrity commission that the government has been consulting on. Karvelas is probing Pocock on his position. She asked whether Pocock supports a commission empowered to sack MPs through a code of conduct and a structure around that.

Pocock said he’d have concerns about an unelected body being able to dismiss elected officials.

I’m not a lawyer, but I’m guessing that there would be some constitutional hurdles with that one. But I can certainly look more into it, but as I said, it wouldn’t be, you know, an elected body. It’s an independent commission and I think actually being able to shine a light on corruption, to deal with it and then, you know, refer it to the police where needed.

Conversation has now moved on to voluntary assisted dying legislation, which Pocock has advocated.

Pocock describes the lack of movement on this is a “longstanding injustice”.

Every state has now legislated on voluntary assisted dying. But when it comes to a vote at a federal level, this is not about legislating voluntary assisted dying, this is a question whether the territories should have the same right to debate and legislate on that.

Asked whether he wants the government to commit to a conscience vote on any legislation, Pocock says: “I don’t need to claim credit for this. I just want to see it done.”

Karvelas asks about that time Pocock was arrested for chaining himself to mining equipment to protest against a coalmine expansion in New South Wales and whether, given this history, whether he could support legislation that would allow the construction of new mines.

Pocock answers that the IPCC was “very clear” that keeping warming below 2C means “we can’t approve and open up new fossil fuel projects” but adds “we have to actually be getting targets in place and then having the policy to have an orderly transition to renewables”.

My sense is that the community does want something legislated. We actually have to be able to legislate something and move forward and so I’m committed to being constructive when it comes to action to make sure we legislate something, and look at other ways how to ramp that up over time but crucially to be looking after regional communities who have relied on fossil fuels for generations.

David Pocock grilled over climate target

Patricia Karvelas is interviewing David Pocock on ABC Insiders now, asking whether the senator will wave through Labor’s climate bill as is – despite his concerns that it doesn’t go far enough.

In terms of the 43%, I have been very open saying that I’d like to see a higher target, but my sense is that what Australians really want is a target to be legislated. We have to actually bank some of these gains and I want to see a target with integrity. There’s some real concerns about the way that we’re actually getting to whatever target we set and that will be my focus.

Independent ACT Senator David Pocock will be speaking to ABC’s Insiders this morning and the New South Wales SES will be holding a press conference at 10am AEST.

We’ll bring you the latest as it happens.

Incredible imagery from the Bureau of Meterology shows the situation across NSW.

Heavy rain across New South Wales is causing dams to spill, with Warragamba expected to overtop later today – raising the prospect of major floods.

The volume of water is hard to appreciate but the speed with which the situation developed has surprised experts:

I don’t speak math (so please check my figures) but that is roughly equivalent to 54,800 Olympic swimming pools flowing out of Warragamba dam a day and 94,000 Olympic swimming pools spilling from Menangle weir.