As the row over the discharge of Covid-positive patients into Scotland’s care homes during the early days of the pandemic deepens, health secretary Jeane Freeman has insisted that a new report does not diminish government accountability, writes Libby Brookes, the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent.

The report – which concluded the risk of an outbreak linked to discharge of positive or untested patients was “not statistically significant” – prompted anger from opposition parties, care chiefs and unions, who argued that it failed to properly explain why dozens of patients who tested positive for coronavirus, along with thousands who went untested, were discharged from Scottish hospitals into care homes in April and May.

Deaths in care homes account for about half of Covid-related deaths in Scotland, with about 2,000 residents having died.

Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland, Freeman said:

For relatives and families of people who have died in care homes during this pandemic, I want them to know really clearly that I am not saying that this report says there is no accountability here or that I think that report in any way offers them comfort. It’s a very technical report and it comes to a statistical conclusion but that doesn’t take away from the human impact of this virus…

Speaking on the same programme, Professor June Andrews, advisor to Dementia Services Development Trust at Stirling University, called into question the “statistical conclusion” that there was no significant risk posed by the discharges, saying that the data had been “cobbled together from a variety of sources” and that the conclusion appeared “defensive”.

She warned that the report – which also suggested that smaller care homes had dealt better with outbreaks – should not be used to blame staff. Others within the care sector have pointed out that larger homes tend to involve more elderly residents and more nursing care, which requires closer contact.

Andrews said that it made more sense to wait for a public inquiry – which the Scottish government has already agreed to – where the quality of data would be much better.

Angela Merkel faced shouts and heckles in Germany’s parliament this morning as she outlined her government’s plans for a “soft” second lockdown, writes Philip Oltermann, the Guardian’s Berlin bureau chief.

From Monday, bars, restaurants, theatres, swimming pools and fitness studios will close for a month, and public gatherings be limited to two households or up to ten people. Unnecessary travel is discouraged and hotels advised not to host tourists. Schools, nurseries and shops will stay open, however.

Merkel said on Thursday morning that Germany was in a “dramatic situation” as it entered the cold season. With the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care having doubled in the last ten days, the chancellor said, hospitals would be overwhelmed “within weeks” unless further steps were taken to curb the spread of the virus.

But Merkel’s “wavebreaker” lockdown has been met with cries of despair especially from the gastronomy sectors. In spite of guarantees for further state subsidies, restaurants, bars and hotels will be hit hard by the new closures, in spite of many owners saying they have willingly complied with requests for new hygiene measures so far. There is little data to suggest that restaurants and bars where guests wear masks have driven the recent spike in infections.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) led the charge against Merkel’s second lockdown in the Bundestag. “We consider Ms Merkel’s paralysation of the culture and gastronomy sector, practically the entire leisure life of our citizens, to be excessive and inappropriate”, said AfD co-leader Alexander Gauland.

Neither Gauland nor FDP leader Christian Lindner offered concrete proposals for an alternative plan, such as a closure of schools. Merkel justified keeping open nurseries and schools “with view to the supreme significance of education”.

Germany’s disease control agency on Thursday recorded a record new 16,774 new infections in the last 24 hours, though for now the infection rate in Germany is still considerably lower than in neighbouring countries such as France or Belgium.

China’s largest coronavirus outbreak in months appears to have emerged in a factory in Xinjiang linked to forced labour and the government’s controversial policies towards Uighur residents.

More than 180 cases of Covid-19 documented in the past week in Shufu county, in southern Xinjiang, can be traced back to a factory that was built in 2018 as part of government “poverty alleviation” efforts, a campaign that researchers and rights advocates describe as coercive.

Under the initiative, Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in the far-western region are tracked and given work placements that they have little choice but to take up.

Related: Large Covid outbreak in China linked to Xinjiang forced labour

Angela Merkel was heckled in the Bundestag, the lower house of Germany’s parliament, on Thursday morning, according to Reuters, as she said populists who purport the coronavirus is harmless are dangerous and irresponsible.

“Lies and disinformation, conspiracy theories and hatred damage not only the democratic debate but also the fight against the virus,” she said, adding this put human lives in danger.

“It is only with solidarity and transparency that we will be able to confront the pandemic,” she told the Bundestag. She sought to defend a circuit break lockdown announced on Wednesday, including the closure of restaurants, gyms and theatres, that is aimed at slowing the spread of the virus.

Merkel said German intensive care units risked being overwhelmed in a few weeks. “We are in a dramatic situation,” she said.

Preparations for coronavirus vaccinations in Germany are underway and the government is working on ethical guidelines on who vaccines should be available for, said Merkel.

“The winter will be hard,” she said. “Four long, hard months. But it will end.”

The debate continues to rage in England over whether a national lockdown is required to curb the spread of coronavirus, as infection rates increase in some areas and the country reports large increase in infections.

Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said the data from a nationwide study of coronavirus prevalence suggests “we need to think about changing the approach”.

I think what our study shows is there would be genuine benefits to some kind of national policy.

In that we could prevent the pattern in the South turning into the current pattern in the North and bring about a reversal in the North as quickly as possible.

If we’re going to end up using those restrictions that have been brought in elsewhere in Europe today and yesterday… we should think about timing. And sooner is better than later for these.

There has to be a change. The rate of growth that we’re seeing in these data is really quite rapid, so one way or another there has to be a change before Christmas.

We’ve fairly reliably measured a slight decrease in R (reproduction number) in our interim round five, now we have measured a slight increase in R, and the slight increase in R means that current measures are not sufficient.

Dr David Strain, clinical senior lecturer and honorary consultant at University of Exeter Medical School, questioned the rule of six.

The rule of six is fundamentally flawed – it allows people to spread the virus around multiple households completely legitimately.

Yet this is permitted indoors in Tier 1 and outdoors in Tier 2. All of these mean the virus is still growing.

But Strain said a national lockdown or circuit-breaker can only be effective if there is a “sensible exit strategy”, adding:

I do believe the local approach is likely to be a better way forward. Currently the focus is very much on controlling the outbreaks in Tier 3.

More focus should be placed on maintaining Tier 1 regions in Tier 1. These areas, after all, are currently maintaining the economy.

The British government’s coronavirus job retention scheme closes on Saturday, ending the first phase of the UK’s economic response to the pandemic.

When the scheme was announced in March it was hailed as an unprecedented intervention by the government, which committed to paying 80% of the wages of any furloughed worker (up to a monthly limit of £2,500). As large parts of the economy were forced to shut down, economists said the policy had been the main factor in preventing a dramatic rise in unemployment.

However, almost 32 weeks later, employment data suggests businesses and workers around the country are still relying on government support, even as the generosity of the support has been reduced. The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, last week updated the furlough programme’s more limited replacement, the job support scheme.

Jasper Jolly looks at six different ways UK jobs market has fared during the pandemic.

Related: Furlough: how UK jobs market has fared during the pandemic

In London, ambulance crews are dealing with another kind of epidemic.

The number of suicides and attempted suicides attended by ambulance crews has doubled compared to five years ago.

The Philippines’ health ministry on Thursday recorded 1,761 new coronavirus infections and 33 more deaths.

In a bulletin, the ministry said total confirmed infections had risen to 376,935, while deaths had reached 7,147. New Covid-19 cases in the Philippines increased by fewer than 2,000 in seven of the last 10 days.

The Czech Republic has reported 12,977 new coronavirus cases, health ministry data showed on Thursday.

Total cases rose to 297,013 while deaths climbed by 128 to 2,675.

Hospitals in the country have been looking for volunteers, as the country struggles with one of Europe’s fastest growing infection rates.

According to the Associated Press, the government is deploying thousands of medical students to hospitals and other students to testing sites.

The mayor of Prague, Zdenek Hrib, who has a degree in medicine, volunteered to help do initial exams of possible coronavirus patients at a university hospital.

And 28 medical personnel from the US national guards are expected to arrive to help treat patients at Prague’s military hospital and a new field hospital at the city’s exhibition ground.

Time for some UK national papers now, where the divisions in attitudes towards the coronavirus pandemic are being played out.

The Guardian reports on a plan to test 10% of the population for coronavirus every week.

Up to 10% of England’s population could be tested for coronavirus every week after government officials asked local health chiefs to deploy 30-minute saliva kits in an acceleration of Boris Johnson’s controversial “Operation Moonshot” mass screening plan.

In a letter seen by the Guardian, NHS test and trace claims it is embarking on an “important new front in our fight against coronavirus” and asks all directors of public health to sign up to receive rapid-result test kits for up to a tenth of their populations every week, to contain outbreaks and preserve freedoms.

Related: 10% of England’s population could be tested for Covid-19 every week

In The Times they are once again talking of a vaccine by Christmas.

The government believes that a German vaccine backed by Pfizer could be ready to distribute before Christmas, with the first doses earmarked for the elderly and vulnerable.

Albert Bourla, the chief executive of Pfizer, said that the vaccine was in the “last mile” and that the pharmaceutical company expected results within a matter of weeks.

Britain has already bought enough doses for 20 million people and is anticipating that some will be available for use immediately if the drug is shown to be successful.

The Telegraph has one for all its readers worried about travelling to their second homes in the Dordogne.

France will be plunged into a second lockdown tomorrow after Emmanuel Macron said Europe was being “overrun” by a second wave of coronavirus which would be “harder, more deadly than the first”.

The French president ordered the closure of non-essential shops, along with bars and restaurants, and told people to stay at home unless they had documentation showing why they needed to go to work or make other journeys.

Britons will be banned from entering France unless they have a signed certificate stating why they need to travel.

The Daily Mail rails against the prospect of a second national lockdown.

Business leaders, campaigners and MPs last night pleaded with Boris Johnson to resist a devastating new lockdown.

They warned that it would wreak economic carnage and devastate thousands of businesses.

It came as scientists said up to 85,000 could die in a second virus wave.

And the Daily Express warns of a Covid cancer time bomb.

Deadly delays in cancer testing due to the pandemic mean 50,000 people have the disease but are campaigners warned yesterday.

Experts claim this number could double in the next 12 months if referrals and screening do not catch up, with urgent action essential.

The toll, described by one of the world’s leading experts as “colossal”, relates to the number affected during the eight-month Covid crisis.

England should act sooner rather than later if it is going to follow Germany and France and take nationwide steps to slow a second wave of the coronavirus, said Steven Riley, author of an Imperial College study into the spread of the disease.

“I think we need decide if we’re going to end up using those restrictions that have been brought in elsewhere in Europe today and yesterday. And if we’re if we’re going to do that, then we should think about timing. And sooner is better than later for these,” Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics, told the BBC.

The spread of the coronavirus continues to increase across all parts of England with cases doubling every nine days, according to the new study by Imperial College.

However, the UK’s ruling Conservative party is facing opposition among its own MPs and prominent supporters against a second lockdown.

The hotelier Rocco Forte, a Tory donor who hosted a party for the prime minister after the Conservative election victory in December, told the BBC he was sceptical that the government was taking the correct approach.

I don’t think they got the balance right. I think they have overreacted, they have panicked in the first instance on the basis of a forecast of 500,000 deaths. We are now seeing new forecasts done by the same people who made the mistakes last time … forecasting armageddon and they have started to panic again.

The reality of the virus is that it is not the killer it was thought to be. At the beginning, I mean, they were talking about a bubonic type plague, where a third of the population dies. Deaths are terrible in any circumstances, but we are looking at a very very small proportion at the moment. Now we have more people dying of influenza and pneumonia than we have of Covid, and yet the concentration is solely on Covid. It doesn’t matter what you die of, if you die of a heart attack or cancer or anything that’s irrelevant. The only thing that matters is if you die of Covid, and it’s quite ridiculous.

The UK government is doing everything it can to avoid a second national lockdown in England, and it believes it can control the virus with local measures, Robert Jenrick, the housing minister, has said.

Speaking on breakfast television, Jenrick said that the government kept everything under review but it wanted to avoid a second full national shutdown because of the damage it creates to livelihoods and the economy.

“The very clear policy of the government is to do everything we can to avoid a full national lockdown,” he told Sky News. Jenrick added:

We will continue with our localised but proportionate approach on taking action where the virus is strongest but you can see from those figures that the virus is in a bad place in all parts of the country.

The approach of trying to bear down on it where it is most concentrated I think continues to be the best way forward because despite the fact the virus is rising across the country it is very concentrated in some places nonetheless.

A national lockdown in France may have to be extended beyond 1 December, the initial deadline, according to Prof Jean-François Delfraissy, a government scientific adviser.

The president, Emmanuel Macron, said on Wednesday that France might start to ease back lockdown measures once coronavirus infections fell back to about 5,000 per day, from around 40,000 per day at present.

But Delfraissy said he did not think that could be achieved by 1 December, according to Reuters.

“By 1 December, we will not be at 5,000 contaminations per day. I can tell that to you straight away today. We will need more time,” said Delfraissy, who heads the scientific council that advises the French government on the pandemic.

Good morning from London. This is Damien Gayle and I’ll be bringing you the latest updates in coronavirus news from the UK and around the world for the next few hours.

If you have any comments, tips or suggestions for coverage from your part of the world, please send them my way, either via email to [email protected] or via Twitter direct message to @damiengayle.

‘Turning pain into purpose’: why the Covid crisis is driving Arizonans to the polls

Maanvi Singh and Lauren Gambino in Phoenix

The coronavirus crisis, which has dominated the election cycle, looms especially large over Arizona. The virus has killed more than 227,000 people in the US, including nearly 6,000 Arizonans, and forced hundreds of thousands more to file for unemployment. It has taken a disproportionate toll on Latino, Black and Native American populations.

Maricopa county was especially hard hit, and remains the fifth worst affected in the US. With election day less than a week away, a traumatized electorate is weighing the failures of Republican leaders to control the pandemic in Arizona, and across the country.

Related: ‘Turning pain into purpose’: why the Covid crisis is driving Arizonans to the polls

More than 500 scout troops are facing closure after fundraising activities from jumble sales to supermarket bag packing were cancelled because of Covid, the movement has warned.

It means the 113-year-old institution faces the possible loss of at least 7% of its 7,300 groups.

Many of those in the severest financial difficulty are in the highest areas of deprivation. One, in Willesden, west London, only opened last May as part of a drive by the scouts to set up packs, troops and colonies in the UK’s poorest areas. It attracted children looking to avoid gang life:

Related: 500 UK scout troops face closure after Covid hits fundraising

This El Pais guide showing how quickly coronavirus spreads in enclosed spaces is well worth your time – what is particularly striking about it is the significant difference ventilation makes.

Dr Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious diseases expert, has praised Australia’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, saying he ‘would like to say the same for the United States’.

Speaking during a discussion with the University of Melbourne, Fauci celebrated Victoria’s approach to wearing masks, lamenting that ‘masks in the United States have almost become a political statement’:

The dollar held gains against a basket of major currencies on Thursday as escalating coronavirus cases in Europe stoked investor fears that fresh lockdowns would further hit the already fragile economic recovery, Reuters reports.

The safe-haven greenback steadied against a basket of six currencies at 93.39, taking a pause after its 0.3% gains in early trade.

Concerns of further damage to the economy grew as France and Germany went back into lockdown on Wednesday, as a massive second wave of coronavirus cases threatened to overwhelm Europe.

More than 300,000 migrant workers who have spent months mostly confined to dormitories in Singapore will soon be allowed to visit recreation centres on their days off, as coronavirus measures are relaxed.

Singapore was initially lauded for its response to Covid-19, but later faced criticism over an explosion in case numbers among low-wage migrant workers living in overcrowded facilities on the outskirts of town. Activists had warned about the risk of infection among the workers, who were sleeping in rooms with up to 20 people, and travelling to and from construction sites on crowded trucks.

Singapore has recorded almost 58,000 infections since the start of the pandemic, the vast majority of which involve migrant workers.

While disease prevention measures have been relaxed for most residents, workers have remained under tighter controls since April, when the dormitories were sealed off. Over recent months they have been allowed to travel to work and run errands, with social distancing and regular testing in place as a precaution.

From 31 October, people who test negative for Covid-19, and come from a dormitory with no active cases, will be allowed to visit recreation centres on their days off, where they will be able to shop for food, remit money, go to restaurants or get a haircut.

More now on US hospitals facing increases threats of cybercrime.

Federal agencies have warned that the US healthcare system is facing an “increased and imminent” threat of cybercrime, and that cybercriminals are unleashing a wave of extortion attempts designed to lock up hospital information systems, which could hurt patient care just as nationwide cases of Covid-19 are spiking.

In a joint alert Wednesday, the FBI and two federal agencies warned that they had “credible information of an increased and imminent cybercrime threat to US hospitals and healthcare providers”. The alert said malicious groups are targeting the sector with attacks that produce “data theft and disruption of healthcare services”.

The cyberattacks involve ransomware, which scrambles data into gibberish that can only be unlocked with software keys provided once targets pay up. Independent security experts say it has already hobbled at least five US hospitals this week, and could potentially impact hundreds more:

Related: US hospital systems facing ‘imminent’ threat of cyber attacks, FBI warns

India crossing 8m cases comes amod concerns grew over a major Hindu festival season and winter setting in, AP reports.

Life in India is edging back to pre-virus levels with shops, businesses, subway trains and movie theaters reopening and the country’s third-largest state of Bihar with a population of about 122 million people holding elections.

But health experts warn that mask and distancing fatigue is setting in and can lead to a fresh wave of infections.

India saw a steep rise in cases in July and added more than 2 million in August and another 3 million in September. But it is seeing a slower pace of coronavirus spread since mid-September, when daily infections touched a record of 97,894 and the highest number of deaths at 1,275.

Dr. T. Jacob John, a retired virologist, said that in most parts of India the infection curve was never flattened and the number of people who are now susceptible to the virus had decreased.

He warned that the ongoing festival season was likely to increase the speed of the viral spread, resulting in localized outbreaks where people gathered without masks and didn’t adhere to social distancing.

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have published an alert warning that hospitals and healthcare providers accross the country are facing an “increased and imminent cybercrime threat”.

Among these threats are ransomware attacks – where an institution’s systems are encrypted and held for ransom: the attacker will release the encrypted information only once money is paid.

The report’s key findings include:

CISA, FBI, and HHS assess malicious cyber actors are targeting the HPH Sector with Trickbot malware, often leading to ransomware attacks, data theft, and the disruption of healthcare services.

These issues will be particularly challenging for organizations within the COVID-19 pandemic; therefore, administrators will need to balance this risk when determining their cybersecurity investments.

America’s top infectious diseases expert, Dr Anthony Fauci, has praised Melbourne, Australia’s response to the coronavirus, saying he “wished” the US could adopt the same mentality.

In an interview hosted by the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne-based Doherty Institute, Fauci said Australia was “one of the countries that has done actually quite well” in handling the virus.

“I really wish that we could transplant that kind of mentality here,” he said. “Because masks in the United States have almost become a political statement”:

Fauci, who is the most senior member of the White House’s coronavirus taskforce, said that Melbourne’s lockdown and mandatory mask-wearing had struck the right balance between public health and opening up the economy.

“A couple of hours before I came to my home here to pick up this Zoom, I was at a meeting virtually in the situation room in the White House,” he said. “If I were to use the word ‘shutdown’ the country or ‘lockdown’, I would be in serious trouble. They would probably be throwing tomatoes at me or something”:

Related: Dr Fauci praises Australia’s coronavirus response and Melbourne’s face mask rules

Nicola Sturgeon is due to outline how each area in Scotland will be impacted by the tiered lockdown restrictions, PA media reports.

The new graded system is to come into effect on Monday after the proposals were backed by the Scottish Parliament.

It will be a five-tier system, ranging from the baseline Level 0 to the highest Level 4. The First Minister is expected to announce how local authorities will fall into each category at FMQs on Thursday.

Local leaders in Lanarkshire have pleaded with the Scottish Government not to impose the toughest coronavirus restrictions in the area – warning they could have “potentially catastrophic impacts” on local businesses.

North and South Lanarkshire are the only two authorities where the First Minister has been considering imposing the toughest restrictions straight away.

Much of central Scotland, including Edinburgh and Glasgow, as well as Dundee, could be placed straight into Level 3 when the tiers are introduced from Monday.

In Level 3, bars and restaurants are not permitted to sell alcohol either indoors or outside, and must close by 6pm.