US President Donald Trump is visiting India on 24 and 25 February. This two-day visit is appearing high on excitement but uncertain in terms of expectations. For Trump the success in domestic politics – his acquittal from impeachment thereby improving his position in the upcoming presidential election and wooing Indian-origin electorate in the US – is one of the major factors behind this visit. For India this visit is looked at further strengthening the growing India-US relations.

Trump’s foreign policy is considered as transactional in nature while India is promoting multilateralism as a means to forward its own interests. However, considering the direction that US’ policies is taking it would be necessary for India to combine transactional policy and multilateralism while taking relations with the US further. This must be considered from economic and strategic perspective. In both the areas India must seek to redefine its own role.

Economic perspective

Maximum focus of this visit is being placed on the anticipation about India-US trade deal. While uncertainty exists about the possible trade deal, whether it would take place now or later, but Trump has his reasons to be skeptical about the trade deal. These reasons need not be valid from India’s point of view and India need not necessarily worry about them.

The US is one of the few countries in the world with which India has a trade surplus. Besides although Trump himself has been promoting America First policy which includes protectionism, he has been critical at times when India has tried to protect its own interests. Trump has even gone as far as calling India a tariff king.

Large population makes India an attractive market for any country to do business. But India needs to change this image as only a market for other countries. India must negotiate to invite foreign capital that would play some part in boosting India’s economic and employment scenario. To a certain extent India has tried to remain competitive with the US by way of tariffs. But India also should look beyond tariffs and explore other competitive means to do business.

Strategic perspective

Over the past two decades India-US relations have developed significantly in the strategic area. These relations range from defence deals to logistic agreements. However the redefining part relates to India to a situation where India participates in the security architecture of a region. In this case two regions warrant a mention, South Asia and Indo-Pacific.

The US’ policies differ significantly when it comes to these two regions. The US and Trump consider India as a partner in the Indo-Pacific region. India is considered as a bulwark against China’s growing influence in the region. While Trump is inclined to taking a more confrontational approach against China in the Indo-Pacific, it is here that India proposes multilateral order. India is a strong advocate of rules-based order and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific. But India also takes a stand that such an arrangement should be for protection of interests of all the stakeholders and not targeted against a particular country.

As regards to South Asia, India is more isolated than the Indo-Pacific. Especially Trump’s approach towards, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran have potential to have negative impact on India’s interests in the region. US is about to sign a peace deal with Taliban on February 29. This is an important development from India’s point of view since it is taking place immediately after Trump’s visit to India. Withdrawal of the US’ troops from Afghanistan and deal with Taliban would increase Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan. This would leave little space for India to forward its interests in Afghanistan where India has made huge investments and is engaged in rebuilding and reconstruction.

With respect to Iran, the stand taken by the US affects India in two ways. First, with the US declaring Iran as the most dangerous country in the world, it undermines threats to India’s security that originate from Pakistan. Second, instability in West Asia affects India’s project at Chabahar Port, Iran which is India’s entry point through Iran to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

With the US’ presence set to shrink from major strategic areas in the world, it offers China an opportunity to fill the space. It is important for India to formulate a strategy to meet the upcoming challenges. India must deal with the US as a part of a multilateral order and not necessarily as one of the principal poles in the world.