By Sagarneel Sinha

Currently, West Bengal is
witnessing a political chaos with state Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee staging
dharna against CBI at Metro Channel in Kolkata accusing the centre for using
the institutions to get political mileage ahead of the general polls. However,
in the midst of all the Mamata vs CBI drama, another significant political
development ignored is the Left Front, which ruled the state for 34 years and
presently is relegated to the third position behind the BJP, is showing signs
of revival.

Left Front led by CPM
organised a huge public rally on 3rd February in the Brigade Parade Ground,
where Mamata Banerjee held her United India rally on January 19 joined by many
key opposition leaders cutting across states. But the difference between the
two rallies is that Left organised the rally without any support of the
administration unlike Trinamool’s rally at a time when Left is struggling hard
to maintain the status of the main opposition party in the state due to a
resurgence of BJP.

However, the rally was
impressive with crowds numbering in lakhs with many comparing with that of
Mamata’s rally. The Left leaders including CPM state secretary Suryakanta
Mishra to party’s general secretary Sitaram Yechury targeted both the Mamata
Banerjee led West Bengal and Narendra Modi led central government. But one
thing noticeable was when the speakers criticised Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool
Congress, the crowds cheered loud in comparison to the criticism directed
against Modi and BJP. The crowds were mostly enthused during tribal leader and
former CPM minister Debolina Hembram’s (whose hair was pulled by a TMC MLA
inside the assembly in 2012) Santali and Bengali mixed speech which from
starting to the end was mostly critical of Mamata Banerjee and her government’s
failure to provide education and jobs to the tribals of the state.

Turning the Brigade rally a
successful was definitely a key challenge for the Left parties ahead of the Lok
Sabha elections and the rally turned out be a big success pumping oxygen to the
beleaguered Left Front. The rally was attended by supporters from various parts
of the state and the attendance of large number of youth in the rally was
definitely the silverlining point for the Left. It is to be mentioned that Left
which presently having no appealing leaders like Mamata Banerjee or Narendra
Modi managed to pull a huge crowd to the Brigade ground highlighting mainly on
burning issues like unemployment, education, farming distress and demand for
industrialisation in the state.

West Bengal is a crucial state
which has 42 Lok Sabha seats and during the last polls, Trinamool Congress won
a whopping 34 seats by garnering 39% while the Left which got 30% votes managed
to win only 2 seats. BJP riding on Modi wave increased its vote share to 17%,
although got only 2 seats. BJP has since managed to grow in the state as the
credible opposition against Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress pushing
behind the major opposition Left Front.

If the saffron party has to
form the next government at the centre, increasing its seats in Bengal assumes
much significance this time for the BJP. Party has already identified 23+ seats
which are spread across North Bengal, tribal dominated areas of Junglemahal and
the constituencies bordering Bangladesh.

BJP has been banking on Hindu
polarisation by raising the pitch with the help of the Citizenship Amendment
Bill 2016 and specially targeting the Matua ( a scheduled caste) community
which has influences in at least five Lok Sabha seats in North and South 24
Parganas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi already addressed a rally in Thakurnagar
of Bangaon constituency (where 65-70% voters are Matuas) on 2nd February.

However, the success of the
Left’s Brigade Rally will definitely change the political arithmetics of the
state. Left has been banking on growing disenchantment of farmers and peasants with
the state and the central government. During the month of November, Left
peasant fronts organised two day march from Singur that ended with a rally in
the heart of Kolkata with the gathering swelling to more than the expected
50,000 figure. The farmers’ march to Kolkata pressed for various demands
including setting of industries for creation of jobs, minimum support prices
for the farmers etc.

Also, the 2 day Bharat Bandh
called by the various trade unions including the Left against the policies of
the BJP led central government was successful in Purulia, Jhargram and Paschim
Medinipur, where BJP performed better in the panchayat elections last year amid
wide allegations of rigging by TMC. Not only this, CPM supporters came out in
various parts — Hooghly, Howrah, East Burdwan, West Burdman, North 24 Parganas
and in the North Bengal — and strike was successful in these areas despite
Mamata government’s strict anti-strike measures across the state.

So, one thing is apparent that
Lok Sabha elections in Bengal will not be polarised only between TMC and BJP —
Left will also be a key force. Growth of BJP is at the cost of the Left and now
with signs of Left growth in the state plus the broken myth of the BJP being
invincible after losing assembly polls in the Hindi heartland, there are
chances that many BJP voters will join the Left. Presently, TMC supremo and
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is trying all her ways to portray herself as the
opposition leader, despite her being in power for the last 8 years, by staging
the dharna against the BJP led Modi government. However, there are chances that
the rise of Left will not only dampen hopes of BJP, although the saffron party
will be able to increase its seat numbers but not as expected in Bengal, but
also has the probability to dent TMC’s aspirations to win maximum seats by
taking a chunk of the disgruntled rural votes plus a section of the Muslim
votes. (IPA Service)

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