The U.S. equity market has been up over 1%, the week of the release of the first round of the French Presidential Election resultsrisk-on sentiment was back. Although traders and investors have shifted away from safe haven assets, the results of the final round of the French Presidential election on May 7, 2017 could surprise the markets, if Le Pen wins. Now, there are some exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that investors might want to keep an eye on ahead in an event of a Le Pen Win.
Gold-Related ETFs
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) was down just over 1% on the week, as of April 28, 2017. The SPDR Gold Shares aims to provide investors with investment results corresponding to the price of gold bullion. Since gold is seen as a safe haven asset, in the event of a Le Pen win, there should be an increase in political risk, and in turn, gold prices should rise. This should drive GLD higher, if Le Pen wins.
According to trader Jason Bond, “Another asset traders might to keep an eye on is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX), which I’m currently long. Now, this a long-term play and I think the price of gold should rise in an event of a Le Pen win, and this should trickle down into GDX.”
Source: TradingView
If you look at the performance of GLD and GDX on the hourly chart shown above, these two ETFs trade in tandem, and could both benefit in an event of a Le Pen win.
Euro-Related ETFs
The euro could experience a high degree of volatility before, and after, the final round of the French President election. Now, the Guggeinheim CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA: FXE) aims to track the price of the euro, and if Le Pen wins, this ETF should fall significantly. We’ve seen FXE rise 1.75% over the past week, after Macron led the first round of the French Presidential election.
“Traders who are highly risk tolerant may want to keep an eye on the ProShares UltraShort Euro, in the event of a Le Pen win. I’m currently long this inverse leveraged ETF, and believe the euro could fall ahead of the final round of the election,” one trader stated.
The ProShares Ultrashort Euro (NYSEARCA: EUO) aims to provide daily investment results correspond to two times the inverse of the daily performance of the USD price of the euro. Consequently, this is considered a highly risk ETF.
Here’s how EUO and FXE performed recently, on the hourly chart:
Source: TradingView
The Bottom Line
The final round of the French Presidential election is coming up, and in the event that Le Pen wins, gold-related ETFs could see a rise, while the euro could fall. Consequently, GLD, GDX, EUO and FXE should be in focus both before and after the election.
