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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK, 19TH OCT, 2015



Dear Customer,
 
Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.
 
  • U.S. stocks closed higher Friday for a third week of gains as mixed data pushed out expectations for the timing of the first rate hike.
Dow Jones
17216.0
+74.2
+0.43%
Dow Jones Fut
17080.0
-35.0
-0.20%
Hangseng
23018.4
-48.9
-0.21%
Nikkie
18190.4
-101.4
-0.55%
SGX Nifty
8251.5
-9.5
-0.11%
 
  • Asian stocks pared losses with Australia’s dollar as China reported third-quarter economic growth that beat estimates.
  • Market is expected to open on a flattish note and likely to remain range bound during the day.
  • Amtek Auto is close to reaching a solution with JPMorgan, which holds its non-convertible debentures worth Rs 200 crore. The balance Rs 600 crore of Amtek Auto's NCDs are held by banks. These will be realigned to the company's cash flow and not be due for payment immediately.
  • Lanco Infratech had won a case in the Supreme Court for its subsidiary company Lanco Kondapalli Power Limited (LKPL), dismissing appeals filed by Andhra Pradesh Power Coordination Committee and AP Discoms and also upholding the orders passed by APTEL and APERC in favour LKPL. As a result of this favourable order LKPL is entitled for reimbursement of income-tax of about Rs 175 crore for financial years 2001 to 2012 along with interest till an date of payment after adjusting the adhoc amount of Rs 70 crore already received. 
  • India's plan to raise as much as $3.3 billion from selling a 10% stake in Coal India Ltd could be thrown off course by global investment banks under pressure from environmental groups to steer clear of the share sale.
  • Mahindra and Mahindra rolled out two new products -- the Supro Van in the passenger van segment while the Supro Maxitruck in load carrier category
  • NBCC has bagged Rs 126.33 crore project in Telangana for carrying out civil works at different colleges of Acharya NG Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU) in the state.
  • The Vedanta group signed an early agreement to invest around Rs8,400 crore to expand and develop its mineral and mining base in Rajasthan.
  • Crompton Greaves Ltd has entered into a definitive agreement for sale of a portion of its land parcel at Kanjurmarg, Mumbai, to Evie Real Estate for an aggregate sum of Rs 496.48 crore.
  • Monsanto has moved court against eight domestic seed companies for refusing to pay over Rs 400-crore 'trait fee'. Prabhat Agri Biotech, Ajeet Seeds Ltd, Kaveri Seed, Ankur Seeds, Nuziveedu Seeds, Green Gold Seeds, Ram Agrigenetics and Amar Bio Tech - have refused to pay the dues, citing the state governments' price control order on cotton seeds.
  • Jindal Poly – Management Meet Note: We met the Management of Jindal Poly. Company is largest player in BOPET and BOPP films with market share of 28% and 40% respectively in India. Company acquired BOPP film business of Exxon Mobil in Europe 2 year back and US with 5 plants for US$216mn and with that company got 5% market share in World for BOPP film. Management has given positive outlook for the domestic film industry. The Gross margin which increased from 28% in FY14 to 31% in FY15 and 38% in Q1FY16 is sustainable in near term as capacity utilization has improved substantially and no new capacity are coming up in next 6-9 months. The performance of International business has also improved substantially as the Ebitda margin post acquisition has increased from 3% to 8% in FY15 because of the various measures taken by company. The margin in further likely to improve to 9% in FY16. The initial calculation suggests Jindal Film can do Sales of Rs 2,664cr, EBITDA of Rs.499cr at standalone level and Sales of Rs.5,062cr, EBITDA of 455cr at International level. Company hold 60% holding in International company as such Attributed Consolidated EBITDA to Jindal Film will be Rs.733cr. At EV/EBITDA of 6x and Debt outstanding of Rs. 1400cr The market cap works out to Rs.3600cr. Company has invested Rs.415cr till FY15 in group power company in the form of redeemable preference share and Further likely to invest Rs.300cr in FY16 in that project. Power company has setup 1200MW pit head power plant in Orissa and is struggling in absence of PPA for power sales. Company is going for 5 / 25 restructuring. Post this Rs.300cr investment Jindal Poly will not have to do any further investment in Power venture. Excluding Rs.300cr from Market cap the Balance works out to Rs.3300cr or Per share value of Rs.750 on diluted Equity post merger of Jindal Photo. About proposed QIP approval company has taken from Board the management has said it is more of an enabling resolution and has not plan to raise fund immediately. If company plan for any expansion or acquisition than company may raise this money.Overall outlook positive.
  • Institution Desk - Trade Data – September 2015 - Trade Deficit Narrows On Faster Decline In Imports: Following the 10th consecutive decline in Indian merchandise exports in September 2015 and imports contracting by the highest pace in the past six years, the trade deficit narrowed last month. Notwithstanding a weaker Indian Rupee (INR), declining global demand kept exports subdued, while the high-base effect led to a faster decline in imports. Although the fall in exports was broad-based, exports of ‘drugs and pharmaceuticals continued to grow in September 2015. On the other hand, while imports of industrial items (capital goods and commodities) contracted in the past couple of months, India imported a record amount of crude oil and petroleum products (in volume terms) in 2QFY16. Overall, India’s trade deficit was US$35.8bn in 2QFY16, worse than US$32.2bn in 1QFY16 but better than US$39.4bn a year ago. Accordingly, we expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen from US$6.2bn (1.2% of gross domestic product or GDP) in 1QFY16 to US$8.7bn (1.7% of GDP) in 2QFY16.
 
  • Results announced
Swaraj Engines
  • result ok.
  • Sales came at 152cr vs qoq 152cr yoy 166cr EBITDA came at 22.23cr vs qoq 22.26cr yoy 24.55cr PAT came at 15.54cr vs qoq 15.65cr yoy 17.73cr. Qtr Eps Rs.12.51
CRISIL - Insti
  • 3QCY15 Result Update- Healthy Growth In Research Business Revenue: Crisil’s 3QCY15 Revenue increased 14.6% to Rs3,594mn, 3.9% above our estimate, following a 23.9% growth in research revenue. Crisil Global Research and Analytics (GRA) witnessed strong growth driven by increase in demand from clients in the US and Europe. Crisil added a substantial volume of work in model validation, stress testing and risk management services in the Risk and Analytics vertical. With better revenue growth, the research division’s EBIT margin improved 541bps to 33.8%. However, following a one-third decline in subsidy provided by the government on SME (small and medium enterprise) ratings, accounting for ~20% of Crisil’s rating revenue, and muted growth in bank loan ratings because of sluggish credit off-take and pricing pressure, rating revenue declined  0.2% to Rs1,087mn, 2% below our estimate, and EBIT margin slipped 98bps to 35.3%. With weak rating revenue, operating profit/net profit, although up 13.1%/8.1% was 5.3%/2.2% below our estimate, respectively.
V-Guard - Insti
  • BUY- 2QFY16 Result Update- Weak Revenue, But Healthy Profit Growth; Retain Buy: V-Guard Industries’ (VIL) revenue grew by a mere 0.5% in 2QFY16 to Rs4,334mn, 4.4%/6.9% below our/Bloomberg estimates, respectively, following a 4.6% decline in the wire division because of a fall in copper prices and a modest 5.5% growth in voltage stabilisers. With a better product mix and lower input costs, gross margin improved  64bps to 28.7%, but higher employee costs capped improvement in operating margin by 15bps to 8.4%, 50bps below our estimate of 8.9%, but in line with Bloomberg estimate. Operating profit increased by a mere 2.3% to Rs365mn, 9.6%/6.7% below our/Bloomberg estimates, respectively. However, a 57% YoY decline in interest costs post debt repayment and a lower tax rate led to a healthy growth in net profit by 20.2% YoY to Rs231mn, in line with our and Bloomberg estimates. The management has cut its FY16 revenue growth guidance from 15% to 12% because of sluggish macro-demand but expects a 20% YoY growth in the 2HFY16 due to a lower base and a festive season boost. We had factored in a 12.8% revenue growth in FY16E, which we have retained.
International Combustion India
  • results good.
  • Sales came at 28.73cr vs 16.92cr qoq cr vs yoy 20.79cr .EBITDA came at 3.98cr vs qoq -2.49cr  vs yoy 0.79cr .PAT came at 3.67cr vs qoq -3.63cr vs yoy -0.36cr. Qtr EPS is Rs.15.35.
Reliance Inds
  • Result ahead of Expectation
  • Consolidated Sales came at 70901cr vs Exp 66668cr qoq 77130 yoy 109797cr EBITDA came at 10704cr vs Exp 8698cr qoq 10177cr yoy 9818cr Adj PAT came at 6522cr vs Exp 5925 qoq 6222 yoy 5972cr GRM came at $10.6 vs qoq $10.4 yoy $8.30
Edelweiss Financial
  • result improved total
  • Revenue came at 1239cr vs qoq 1154 yoy 904 NII came at 379cr vs qoq 341 yoy 310cr PAT came at 96cr vs qoq 91cr yoy 79cr
Unichem Labs
  • result came below expectation Sales came at 304cr vs Exp 300cr qoq 305cr yoy 275cr EBITDA came at 34.4cr vs Exp 38cr qoq 42.7cr yoy 33.4cr  PAT came at 23.09cr vs Exp 24cr qoq 28.8cr yoy 22.3cr
NIIT Tech
  • result marginally ahead of exp
  • Sales came at 677.9cr v Exp 675.7cr qoq 641.1cr yoy 588.3cr EBITDA came at 119.4cr vs Exp 112cr qoq 104 yoy 82cr PAT came at 68cr vs Exp 63cr qoq 59cr yoy 40cr Share is trading at 10 PE FY17 earning
RS Software
  • result declining.
  • Sales came at 64.92 cr vs qoq 77.4 cr vs yoy 99.4 cr. EBITDA came at 11.31  cr vs qoq 12.78 cr  vs yoy 24.73 cr. PAT came at  7.62cr vs qoq  11.10 cr vs yoy 16.62 cr. Quarterly EPS is Rs.3.21
Revathi Equipment
  • result declined qoq.
  • Sales came at 47cr vs qoq 53cr yoy 32cr EBITDA came at 5.24cr vs qoq 6.21cr yoy 4.27cr . PAT came at 2.30cr vs qoq 4.83cr yoy 0.30cr . Qtr EPS is Rs.7.50
Tata Metaliks
  • result ok.
  • Sales came at 326cr vs qoq 317cr yoy 348cr EBITDA came at 48cr vs qoq 47cr yoy 53cr PAT came at 22cr vs qoq 26.6cr yoy 27cr. Share is trading at EV / EBITDA of 3 which looks attractive but because of merger announced with Tata Steel lower valuation may not have impact.
Tata Sponge
  • result declining
Agro Tech Foods
  • Result is marginally below expectations
  • Sales is Rs 199 cr vs exp of Rs 201 cr. QOQ was Rs 181 cr. YoY Rs 197 cr
  • EBITDA came at Rs 13 cr vs exp of Rs 14 cr. QoQ rs 11 cr YoY rs 12.7 cr
  • PAT is Rs 5 cr vs exp of Rs 7.3 cr. QoQ Rs 4.6 cr YoY Rs 8.0 cr
Bhansali Engineering Polymer
  • result declined qoq
Menon Bearing
  • result ok
  • Sales came at 28.53cr vs qoq26.65cr yoy 27.58cr EBITDA came at 7.21cr vs qoq 6.01cr yoy 6.11cr PAT came at 3.93cr vs qoq 3.01cr yoy 3.08cr Qtr EPS is Res.0.84. Share is trading at 18 PE Q2 annualised Earning
South Indian Bank
  • result declining.
  • Assets quality further declined with GNPA increased qoq from 464cr to 550cr  though Operationally result improved. NII came at 388cr vs exp 356vt qoq 340cr yoy 358cr PBP came at 213cr vs Exp 193cr qoq 181cr yoy 211cr Provision came at 67cr vs qoq 80cr yoy 96cr PAT came at 93cr vs exp 80cr qoq 65cr yoy 76cr
 
  • Results to be announced (PAT Rs cr)
19-Oct
Sept'14
June'15
Expectation
NB Insti
Blue Star Infotech Ltd.
5.7
7.3
na
na
GATI Ltd.
6.9
7.8
na
na
Gruh Finance Ltd.
47.8
50.3
57.4
na
Heritage Foods Ltd.
4.8
10.7
na
na
Hindustan Zinc Ltd.
2183.5
1920.8
1964.7
na
Kesoram Industries Ltd.
-250.6
0.0
na
na
Kitex Garments Ltd.
19.3
16.0
26.5
na
Maharashtra Scooters Ltd.
47.7
2.0
na
na
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
32.7
28.4
na
na
Orient Cement Ltd.
43.3
27.9
25.3
na
Petronet LNG Ltd.
262.8
247.5
199.4
na
SKS Microfinance Ltd.
56.8
61.2
66.0
na
Thangamayil Jewellery Ltd.
-12.4
3.6


This post first appeared on Adam Capital Financial Services, please read the originial post: here

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK, 19TH OCT, 2015

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