Observers and investors are accustomed to business cycles. That’s because cyclical patterns have dominated not only during the post-World War II era, but also for decades before that: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has documented the phenomenon over the past 150 years. During that century and a half, economic expansions lasted 38 months on average, followed by recessions that averaged 17 months. There could be a lot of variability in the cycles at times, but the overall pattern was consistent. But now look what’s going on. We are in the 11th year of the recovery from the Great … Continue reading—>

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