The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged. The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD. Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY. It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies. If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven. The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month. The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.
This insight is part of Smartkarma. For more follow this link.