Review of Forecast for May 9, 2016

Sideway tight range week as expected. Range bounded within 1.5% as expected. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.

Forecast Starting May 16, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of May 13, 2016:

• Trend week expected with advantage to the downside
• Premium members already know where the swing target below is from MBO Special Update
• Intraday volatility expansion likely

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Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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