Final closing winning bet
$ 10.0 Fund Carryover
$1,356.8 Winning From MIDDLESBROUGH vs READING
$1,366.8 Final Fund (from $1,100 invested)
Stats Summary
Profit = $ 266.8 over $1,100 (24%)
Inactive weeks = 23 of 41 (56%)
Bets won = 12 of 48 (25%)
Looking at the chart, there was only 2 times over the 41 weeks where the returns is over investment. On paper, the 24% returns in less than a year (41 weeks) looks impressive but I rather call this a lucky sequence given the possible problems that goes wrong.
Big Problems with system
Assuming last bet of $640 lost
It will takes 13 months of $100 funding to allow for a next bet. An addicted gambler who can resist a 13 months of inactivity, should already quit. Assuming the next bet of $1,280 won, the ROI will be 7.9% for 93 weeks.
Chances of exponential bets
Given the bet won percentage of 25%, running a simulation test program of 10,000 runs, the maximum bet easily reached $17,179,869,183 which is a crazy amount. Even with a better win percentage of close to 50%, there is still a chance of getting a long stretch of losing streak.
Conclusion
This betting system is better left untouched.
Sports Bet History Table
Week # | Week Investment | Winnings | Bets | Fund Left | Bets Made | Last Bets Won | Total Investment Made | ROI | Inactive? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 100 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 4 | 0 | 100 | 100.0% | 0 |
2 | 0 | 11.5 | 35 | 56.5 | 4 | 1 | 100 | 91.5% | 0 |
3 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 6.5 | 3 | 0 | 100 | 56.5% | 0 |
4 | 0 | 102.5 | 35 | 74 | 4 | 3 | 100 | 109.0% | 0 |
5 | 100 | 0 | 90 | 84 | 8 | 0 | 200 | 87.0% | 0 |
6 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 200 | 42.0% | 0 |
7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 2.0% | 1 |
8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 2.0% | 1 |
9 | 100 | 0 | 100 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 300 | 34.7% | 0 |
10 | 0 | 82 | 80 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 300 | 28.7% | 0 |
11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 2.0% | 1 |
12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 2.0% | 1 |
13 | 100 | 0 | 100 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 400 | 26.5% | 0 |
14 | 0 | 168 | 80 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 400 | 43.5% | 0 |
15 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 400 | 23.5% | 0 |
16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 3.5% | 1 |
17 | 100 | 0 | 80 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 500 | 22.8% | 0 |
18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 6.8% | 1 |
19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 6.8% | 1 |
20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 6.8% | 1 |
21 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 600 | 22.3% | 1 |
22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 600 | 22.3% | 1 |
23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 600 | 22.3% | 1 |
24 | 100 | 0 | 160 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 700 | 33.4% | 0 |
25 | 0 | 336 | 320 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 700 | 58.6% | 0 |
26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 700 | 12.9% | 1 |
27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 700 | 12.9% | 1 |
28 | 100 | 0 | 160 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 800 | 23.8% | 0 |
29 | 0 | 320 | 320 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 800 | 43.8% | 0 |
30 | 0 | 640 | 320 | 350 | 1 | 1 | 800 | 83.8% | 0 |
31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 800 | 43.8% | 1 |
32 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 900 | 50.0% | 1 |
33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 900 | 50.0% | 1 |
34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 900 | 50.0% | 1 |
35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 900 | 50.0% | 1 |
36 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 550 | 0 | 0 | 1000 | 55.0% | 1 |
37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 550 | 0 | 0 | 1000 | 55.0% | 1 |
38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 550 | 0 | 0 | 1000 | 55.0% | 1 |
39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 550 | 0 | 0 | 1000 | 55.0% | 1 |
40 | 100 | 0 | 640 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1100 | 59.1% | 0 |
41 | 0 | 1356.8 | 0 | 1366.8 | 0 | 1 | 1100 | 124.3% | 1 |
Sum | 1100 | 3016.8 | 2750 | 48 | 12 | 23 |