Weekly analysis: $weakness? Forex trade ideas
I have posted my analysis for the week ahead. We had some big moves on Friday on the back of the NFP data which is forex at its craziest. Hence I recommend not trading it. Before you read this post check out my previous post where I explained what happened during NFP and why we saw the reversal on the majors.
NFP what happened & why?
(members only access)
Ashley will post either tomorrow or Monday showing you set ups on the shorter timeframes as we do need some big pullbacks on most of the pairs. However, the cross pairs do look attractive. You can watch Ashley’s video which he posted this week on how he caught 60 pips on GBPUSD on a day trade set up.
Now I have shown in the video below that we have a hanging man candle stick on a weekly timeframe on the DXY at a key level. This is a strong clue that the $ could possibly reverse after a strong bullish trend for 11 weeks. Of Course, this is not guaranteed but just a clue that might turn out to be true. We are all trading probability.
The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++
For the week ahead the US and Canada both have bank holidays. This means the markets are bound to be slow. Personally, I would wait until Tuesday to open any new trades because you don’t know what the US traders will do when they are back In the market on Tuesday. There isn’t a lot of news next week except Thursday, you have GBP GDP and the US CPI which is a very volatile time in the market so don’t open trades before that or manage them if they are in profit. On Friday the BOE, ECB, and FED members speak but we usually don’t trade it.
MAJORS
Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area once again on the weekly charts. It is now stuck at the 55EMA and you have the 200 EMA just above it. If it could break above that we could be looking at $ strength.
Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.
EUR/USD: It’s printed a pinbar reversal candle on the weekly. However no where to place a stop for a long. Will still watch 1.0750 for a short.
USD/CHF: I would not touch it right now. There is a triangle pattern which suggests almost a 1000 pip move. I need more confirmation.
Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”
GBP/USD: First area of interest 1.2375 and 1.24 is the A grade for multiple reasons.
AUD/USD: Not an A grade but 0.6450 is an area of interest.
NZDUSD: Similar to the AUD. 0.61 area is interesting on the weekly for a short.
USD/CAD: Interested to long at 1.3475 and 1.3410
USDYEN: The BOJ is very likely to intervene again so I wouldn’t bother playing around with it. Why try to fight a bank? You won’t win.
CROSSES
Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.
EURGBP: It is very messy, watch the video to see what I think.
GBPAUD: Check out Ashley’s analysis when he releases the video he has got two set ups on it.
AUDJPY: 93.20 is the area for a long again. One of our members had a big win on it this week.
NZDCAD: 0.8340 is the interesting area for a short.
As always, remember correlation!
M3 -Shorter timeframes.
I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):
Kind regards,
Marc
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