AUDUSD has been Bearish for three consecutive weeks and closed around 0.74160 handle. 

This week is rather quiet, with the retail sales figures being the only news to be released on Tuesday at 930 AWST.  Wages growth is expected to remain subdued as ascertained in the RBA quarterly report. The US Fed is optimistic about the economy pushing the Aussie lower. The recovery in commodity price would be positive for the AUDUSD.

The Annual Budget will be released on Tuesday 1730 AWST and outlines government spending with increased spending positive for the economy as work for contractors is generated therefore creating jobs. On the contrary, reduced spending will restrain the economy.

The currency pair has been trading in a sideways range following a strong bearish trend. The last candlestick closed inside the Kumo Cloud - a medium neutral indication. The last candlestick rose to pierce through the Senkou Span A before sharply declining and crossed through Kijun Sen (red line) to the bearish side. This shows that bulls were driving the market in the early days of the week and lost control as the week progressed as shown by a large upper shadow on the candlestick. The pair rallied after reaching a low of 0.73668 handle suggesting that the bears were loosing commitment. On the downside, Senkou Span B will like provide support around 0.73298 range.

AUDUSD is in a clear down trend on the daily chart as the pair made a series of lower peaks and lower troughs. A down trend line has been confirmed and intact. AUDUSD formed a double top reversal pattern and broke the neckline on 26 April and retested the neckline until successfully breaking it on 3 May. The neckline also provided support to the pair and will act as a resistance. On 4 May, the bearish candlestick shows a long lower shadow indicating that the price is finding support around 0.73821 range. On Friday 5 May the price pushed lower to the lowest since February around 0.73668 handle the rallied aggressively to close higher at 0.74160 creating a bullish candlestick with a larger lower shadow and a smaller body. This indicates that bears lost control and bulls moved in aggressively to push the price higher. A temporary support has been created around that level as the price is being rejected as it hits that level.

The first resistance level to watch is around 0.74520 handle which is the Senkou Span B. The price had found support earlier at this level and a rally towards this level will give opportunities to enter bearish signals. The next resistance level is around 0.75 handle which has provided support earlier and is also the neckline of a double top reversal pattern.

The near support level is around 0.7302 level, November 2016 low. The next support level is around 0.71952 handle, December 2016 low.