Disappointing Retail sales figures out of Australia were disappointing and pushed Audusd to 4-monthly lows. The RBA is concerned with household debts and is quite reluctant to raise interest rates whilst their counterparts in the US still see a chance to raise the cash rate this year. However, weaker US Data released on Friday supported a rally of AUDUSD but failed to close above the 0.74 handle but found support on the 0.7330 level.

High Impact economic news for this week includes the RBA Monetary minutes to be released on Tuesday and more likely to give clues to the Central Bank's view on Australia's economic situation.

On Thursday, Unemployment Rate is expected to stay flat at 5.9%. However, the Employment Change is expected at 5.2k jobs added to the economy compared to the previous 60.9k.

Gold - the Australian dollar is affected by the commodities markets especially gold. Gold is currently fighting a support level on the Bottom of the Kumo Cloud and a rally is positive for the Aussie.

On the Weekly chart, the price fell towards the 0.7330 handle and found support on the bottom of the Kumo Cloud (Senkou Span B). The price rallied after hitting this level to create a hammer. The price was rejected on the 0.733 level to the upwards and this is a positive sign for the Aussie. A break of the hammer to the upside is a strong bullish sign for AUDUSD otherwise a break at the bottom is bearish sign towards the 0.715 range.

The daily chart is conflicting the weekly bullish signal. The Friday trading session created a shooting star with the upper shadow showing that the bulls were in control during the session and lost control by the end of the trading session failing to keep the prices higher. However, the longer weekly timeframe suggests that the bears were no longer eager and were loosing control at the 0.733 level.

 The H4 chart shows that the Kijun-sen has been broken at 0.7376 to the upside and price retested the level and rejected to the upside. Additionally, a Dow theory uptrend has been confirmed as the second low was higher than the previous low and the price moved beyond the peak between the two lows. In case a rally did materialise, there is room to move to the upside before a stall is expected. 

The currency pair has been in a consolidating phase since mid 2015 and is expected to trade in a sideways direction till there is clarity with the RBA monetary policy. I am neutral on AUDUSD but will be watching the weekly chart for a breakout of the hammer. A breakout to the top will see a bullish move confirmed which will last for a couple of days even weeks towards the 0.75 - the daily Ichimoku cloud. A rally in the gold market which is currently testing a support level will provide further confirmation for a bull aussie. A breakout to the bottom is a bearish move towards the 0.715 level. Patience is needed to enter positions on this pair and wait for confirmation.