It’s strangely funny how a thing could be taken for granted — missed just after it’s gone away. Now that the Breeders’ Cup is over with, where on earth would be the Kentucky Derby futures wagers?
I acknowledge it. I’m writing this feeling as a caffeine addict who can’t satisfy his morning-cuppa jones with the instant decaf that is in the cupboard. I am shaking like I have been conquered by the DTs (look that one up, kids). I have this overwhelming urge to jump in my car and drive off for countless miles until I run into the nearest ADW — the likes of which can be hypocritically barred here in Nevada. (Don’t get me started on this )
Something tells me that I am not alone. Greater than six months prior to the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, something is lost. And we are not talking about just any old Derby odds.
I had a market on Twitter with someone who wanted to understand why the Westgate hadn’t put up Derby stocks yet. The Westgate? Come on. It has a racebook, but is not the horse store. It had been the Wynn that was the haven for horseplayers — the location that had the actual Derby futures. Can this Tweep have mixed his dubyas?
No, he insisted. He explained that he had lost money on a Derby bet in the Westgate last winter. In my addled state, I summoned the area to avoid pointing out that the Westgate appears to other bellwether markets to set its Derby lines after the first of the year. And I stopped short of posting a snarky Tweet to remind one and that it isn’t winter yet. I stored that burst of pith with this column.
That brings us to the kernel of the withdrawal. In a normal year we’d already have had Johnny Avello’s listing of 300 or so Derby candidates to chew on. Like clockwork for 13 years, Avello cranked out those sheets complete with attractive odds and myriad possibilities to throw a historical Hail Mary — or five — in the Derby.
Sucker bet? Obviously it is. But just how much are we talking about investing? Request the couple who threw some cash last February in Justify at odds of 300-1 to win the Derby, odds that were posted even before his very first race. Do they look like suckers?
Is it a ROI play? Hell, no. It’s better than the Powerball, although not by much. Still, it is fun. And Avello’s sheets were crucial catch from the Wynn Las Vegas every September.
But right around the time that summer turned to fall this year, Avello declared that he was leaving the Wynn to get a new gig at DraftKings, which has branched out from everyday fantasy sports to jump onto a particular May 14 Supreme Court decision to get into the sports-wagering business.
Naturally, I asked Johnny if he’d be moving his Derby futures to DraftKings. He explained, however, there were details to be worked out.
Now we have reached the Ides of November, and there are still no Johnny Avello futures.
There was a glimmer of hope that they’d be posted this weekend at Mississippi, where DraftKings is opening its first bricks-and-mortar sportsbook in the brand new Scarlet Point Casino hotel in d’Iberville, just north of Biloxi — and a mere 678 miles south of Churchill Downs. But among the worker bees — let us mention a spokeswoman — at DraftKings’ corporate offices in Boston promised me Wednesday that they weren’t in the horse business. Yet.
Not long after that, I got a text from Johnny stating that his futures were still on hold.
It is not like I can’t get down a bet. William Hill has published a list of 73 horses for its small Derby futures. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner is your preferred — in 6-1.
Seriously? 6-1? In November? Fourteen months back when Bolt d’Oro was the favorite from the Avello futures in the Wynn, he had just been bet down from 40-1 to 30-1.
Even if one concludes that the William Hill futures are better than nothing, there’s an alternative coming weekly. Churchill Downs will start the first nationally Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool in Thanksgiving Day until the next Sunday, and it will be available through every ADW in the country. (Did I mention that ADWs aren’t allowed by a Nevada legislature that is practicing bald-faced hypocrisy? I could not recall )
By now we’d have the Avello odds to be our North Star. They would be a guide for William Hill, the Westgate and even Johnny’s old buddies at the Wynn to place inactive odds. They would also be an influence for Mike Battaglia in Churchill Downs to set a legitimate morning lineup for the KDFW and its own pari-mutuel betting.
Eventually the red tape is going to be cleared, and Avello is going to be able to publish his chances somewhere. He did inform me that Game Winner would be his favorite, but he didn’t disclose the chances.
Let us get real. No one worth his or her horseplaying salt should take a plunge on Game Winner at this time. This time of year should be about taking a chance on a colt that Bob Baffert isn’t a Chad Brown colt that isn’t racing on turf or a 200-1 shot which fired a bullet function that everyone else overlooked.
This is about speaking to Johnny roughly Coliseum, the 2-year-old that is racing for the first time . He’s a 2-1 morning-line preferred to win a maiden race which starts the Saturday card in Del Mar.. Coliseum was sent to Baffert by Godolphin, which paid $300,000 for the colt. This is the exact same Godolphin that is owned by the United Arab Emirates’ Sheikh Mohammed, who’s desperate to win a Kentucky Derby for the first time.
After I told him this story, Avello told me that he would then include Coliseum in his early Derby futures. But that was before things got complicated nowadays.
There’s no other bookmaker here in vegas or perhaps everywhere who’ll take orders like this. Johnny did, after all, take huge stakes until he left the Wynn on Instagrand and Roadster to win the Derby. In August he opened Roadster in 25-1 and Instagrand at 30-1. At William Hill now, Instagrand is 10-1 and Roadster 50-1. And are for the moment from training.
No, it isn’t the exact same this autumn. We do not have Johnny’s countless horses to choose from. At William Hill we’ve got heaps — and we are thankful. As soon as the KDFW opens Thursday, we’ll have 23 choices plus»others.» (By»we,» I do not mean Nevada. I have said that .)
Here’s hoping that the rigmarole that is holding up Avello’s futures contract is dispensed with sooner than later. Until then, I cannot be held accountable for the activities stemming from my withdrawal. God forbid, I might actually bet a great deal of money rather in an overnight race out of Moe, Australia.
Oh, where’s Mr. Avello if we actually need him?

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