Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 PGA Championship  

PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

The Pga Championship – the 105th edition of this illustrious tournament – is finally here.

Often unfairly labelled as the least popular major, the PGA Championship will benefit in 2023 from being played at a sublime venue: the East Course at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York.

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This is a historic piece of golfing real estate that has hosted majors at professional, amateur and senior level, as well as a Ryder Cup and even cash games back in the days of Sam Snead and co.

So let’s get into it!

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Hatton as a late minute sub for the Spieth WD turned out to work out in a decent way for us.  He ended up finished T5 and notched a quite a bit in terms of fantasy points.   

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Overall, not a bad showing for our twelve total picks with two missing the weekend and three finishing in the top 14. 

The PGA Championship Field

It’s your customarily excellent field at the PGA Championship, with the undertone of aggression that we saw at The Masters in the PGA TOUR vs LIV Golf battle.

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Tiger, sadly, won’t be in the field, while Jordan Spieth has insinuated that he will make his decision on whether to play as late as possible – he’s suffered an injured wrist.

Otherwise, it’s as good as golf gets in 2023: Rahm, Scheffler, McIlroy, Koepka, Smith, D Johnson and any of the other myriad heavyweights you might care to mention. Slightly more unheralded stars from the DP World, Sunshine and Asian tours will be looking to make the most of their chance to shine. 

Justin Thomas is the defending champion, while a handful of slightly elder statesmen – Jason Day, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler et al – may just recall playing the East Course at the 2013 PGA Championship.

This Week’s Course Preview

The pros love it – Rory is a member there – and it’s been reported that Oak Hill Country Club’s East Course has never been in better shape thanks to a series of renovation projects.

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Originally designed by Donald Ross a century or so ago, the layout has been tweaked and altered over the years to make sure it’s a fit and proper test of the modern golfer of the day. That flexibility is why Oak Hill is the only venue to have ever hosted the U.S. Open, the PGA Championship, a Ryder Cup, a U.S. Amateur and a handful of senior majors as well.

But the reports of recent works at Oak Hill confirm that the track has been restored somewhere closer to Ross’ original vision. That means that trees have been removed – affording the players less respite from the New York breeze but adding the possibility of corner-cutting; green complexes rebuilt to feature more shelves, slopes and run-offs, and the routing re-worked to be more in tune with Ross’ blueprints.

The result is a Par 70 track that will play to around 7,400 yards (there’s scope for tee boxes to be moved forward or back depending on conditions). This is a long layout with particularly tiny Bentgrass greens, and with the rough expected to be left up in a manner befitting a major, the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill could become a grind – it’s just how Donald Ross would have wanted it to be.

Here’s a quick hole-by-hole and how we expect the East Course to play:

Hole 1 (Par 4, 460 yards) – This is a fairly gentle opening, with a fairway that runs at a fair lick on a downslope able to create mammoth driving distances for those stay straight. There’s no doubt that hitting a fluffy short iron into this green will be a huge advantage.

Hole 2 (Par 4, 405 yards) – Here’s a short Par 4 but one that is well protected by sizable bunkers on both sides of the fairway. The green slopes from back to front.

Hole 3 (Par 3, 230 yards) – A knee-trembling 230-yard approach into a tiny green, which is well-protected by sand. Make par and get out of there.

Hole 4 (Par 5, 615 yards) – The first of the Par 5s is a beast at 615 yards, meaning that the vast majority will lay up and leave themselves a wedge or short iron in for birdie. However, a funky green and danger right and left off the tee will make that easier said than done.

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Hole 5 (Par 3, 180 yards) – In theory, this should play as one of the easiest holes on the course. But only the most accurate will thrive as a two-tiered green protected by deep bunkers is not for the faint-hearted.

Hole 6 (Par 4, 503 yards) – What a hole. Take a look at the tight shoot of trees that the players must pick their drive through, and then marvel at a 200-yard or so approach into a small, rapid-speed green.

Hole 7 (Par 4, 461 yards) – The catch on the seventh is a narrow landing zone, which is protected by a creek flanking the right-hand side of the fairway. 

Hole 8 (Par 4, 429 yards) – Threading the needle is the key off the tee on the eighth. The right-side of the fairway should leave the best looks in to the green, whereas the left side has all sorts of hazards lurking. 

Hole 9 (Par 4, 482 yards) – The front nine concludes with another lengthy Par 4; this time a doglegging hole where the presence of a thick tree-line could block out some drives from having any sort of angle into the green.

Hole 10 (Par 4, 430 yards) – The back nine gets underway with one of the East Course’s more manageable holes. It’s your average hit-fairway-hit-green-make-putt Par 4, although a sloping fairway may send some drives careering into the rough stuff.

Hole 11 (Par 3, 245 yards) – Is this the longest Par 3 we will see all year? Few spring to mind that are longer on the PGA TOUR. The green is protected by a water hazard to the right.

Hole 12 (Par 4, 399 yards) – Some respite will come in the form of a short Par 4 that the longer hitters will get very close to hitting the green in one off the tee. It’s risk-and-reward though, with plenty of sand protecting both fairway and green.

Hole 13 (Par 5, 623 yards) – It’s rare that a Par 5 is a hole where making par is acceptable, but this beast surely will; a creek running across the fairway at approximately 325 yards meaning that most will essentially be laying up off the tee.

Hole 14 (Par 4, 320 yards) – It’s an uphill approach into a heavily-contoured green, but there’s a chance that plenty in the field will attack the green off the tee here.

Hole 15 (Par 3, 155 yards) – We’re heading for home, and the return journey gets off to a good start with an approach shot that most pros would expect to make. The green is framed on one side by bunkers, so concentration is required.

Hole 16 (Par 4, 458 yards) – Here’s a downhill fairway where 350-yard drives are possible. The problem is that the landing zone tapers into deep rough, so the players will need to decide how brave they are feeling.

Hole 17 (Par 4, 502 yards) – Another doglegging hole where hitting the right portion of the fairway is key. The green is seriously undulating, too.

Hole 18 (Par 4, 497 yards) – Champions will be made or lost on what could actually be one of the toughest holes on the property. There’s a thin slither of a green that slopes markedly from back to front, so the most precise of approaches – or a nerveless up-and-down – may be our winner’s final act of note.

Weather Forecast for Rochester, NY

Although subject to change, it’s looking like it’s going to be a largely dry but cool week in Rochester.

Thursday is shaping up nice enough with sunny spells, although the temperature may struggle to get up beyond 60 degrees. There’s likely to be the gentlest of winds.

Friday could be the change day, with stiffer winds of around 12mph potentially bringing in some rain. Temperatures could hit 69 degrees.

Saturday is a cool one again at around 62 degrees, with wind speeds of 11mph and the chance of some rain showers.

Sunday, the kingmaker, will hopefully be sunny with the mercury hitting 63 degrees. The wind looks stable at around 11mph.

ROCHESTER WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the PGA Championship

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Justin Thomas has two Major titles to his name, and both have come at the PGA Championship.

To say he had to guts out his victory at last year’s tournament at the Southern Hills club would be a mammoth understatement. JT started the final round seven shots back of the 54-hole leader Mito Pereira, whose fumblings at the finish line have been forever immortalized in the Full Swing documentary on Netflix. Tough break.

Only 12 players finished the week under par, and two of them – Thomas and Zalatoris – would ultimately do battle in a playoff. 

They shared birdies at the first extra hole, before Thomas asserted his dominance in the three-hole playoff with birdie at the second.

Par at the last would seal an emotional victory for Thomas, who looked visibly moved as he lifted the massive PGA Championship for a second time. 

As for Pereira, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young and Zalatoris, who all led JT heading into the final round, it’s a case of what-might-have-been. But the history books only remember the winners – unless Netflix’s cameras are rolling, of course….

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the PGA Championship this Week

Given that it’s a major week, not only can you enter the Milly Maker, but you can also enjoy some beefed-up ordinary contests – in which the payouts have been increased accordingly.

• PGA $3M Fantasy Millionaire: This contest is now the standard-bearer whenever a major rolls around. For your $25 entry, you’ll get a shot at the $1 million top prize plus a ticket to the Tournament of Champions contest. And even if you don’t win, there’s some mammoth consolation prizes to be clinched.

• PGA $600k Drive the Green: If you’re on a tighter budget and want to run several lineups, this $5 contest is the way to go given the huge $600k prize pool ($100k goes to the winner). There’s ample opportunity to land a three-figure payout – or better – here.

We’ve teamed up with DraftKings for an exciting offer this week! New customers can deposit $5 and will receive an odds boost to add +1000 to any pre tournament wager up to $10 on any golfer to win the tournament. To get in on the action this week use our promo code: GOLFPODCAST

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The PGA Championship, with its rotational host courses, is always a leap into the unknown when it comes to drafting a DFS lineup.

The crumbs of comfort are that we have a course architect in Donald Ross who is no stranger; he also designed East Lake, home of the TOUR Championship, Sedgefield (Wyndham Championship) and Detroit GC (Rocket Mortgage Classic). East Lake in particular should prove to be a good guide.

We also have the 2-13 PGA Championship to examine, although in truth little is given away – golf has also changed beyond recognition since then. The top-10 was made-up of outstanding drivers (Rory, DJ, Day, Scott), accurate tee-to-green merchants (Jason Dufner, Jim Furyk, David Toms) and nuggety putters (Jonas Blixt, Zach Johnson). It’s an eclectic band that gives away very little.

There is, surely, an emphasis on controlled length this week. The greens on the East Course are so small, so fast and so contoured that you really want to be approaching them with as short a club – for maximum loft – as possible.  That kinda goes against the grain of the 2013 edition of the PGA Championship, but golf has come a long way since then.

We need our guys to be hitting fairways at 300+ yards, but we also need them to be outstanding on approach through the bag too, with distances from 125 yards to 200+ yards required. Greens in regulation will be missed by even the straightest of shooters, so the full tee-to-green and scrambling game is required.

And champions are born on the greens, of course. The East Course has slick Bentgrass surfaces, so comfort in those conditions is vital.

As for other correlating courses, you could throw the likes of Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village and TPC Southwind into the mix – long, fairly hard tests with small greens that, in Muirfield’s case at least, are Bentgrass.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the PGA Championship   

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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