2022 BMW Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

The battle for the Fedex Cup took a huge twist on Sunday when Will Zalatoris wrapped up his maiden PGA TOUR title.

He needed the help of six playoff holes – and a wall guarding a water hazard – to finally see off Sepp Straka at the FedEx Cup St. Jude Championship, and finally got the breakthrough his obvious talent merits. His yelled ‘what are they gonna say now!?’ was as much relief, you fancy, as defiance.

Even so, it puts Willy Z at the top of the FedEx Cup standings with just two events left to play, and a strong showing at the Bmw Championship this week will allow him one hand on that rather fat paycheck.

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The BMW is a really frustrating event to bet on. It’s played at a different course each year – often at those that haven’t hosted a PGA TOUR event in a while or, indeed, ever. So finding an edge, which we really need in a low number, high quality field, is difficult.

But we’ve had a good luck at Wilmington Country Club online, listened to what those that have played it have said, and come to the conclusion that this could be a layout worthy of the TOUR’s penultimate event of the campaign.

There’s thick tree-lines and some necessary shot shaping off the tee, with dense rough and plenty of sand to gobble up any loose drives. And the greens, although large in size, are well protected by sand and water, and they have little shelves and undulations too that make quality approach play a necessity. 

What’s more, Wilmington CC will play at around 7,534 yards for its Par 71….so it won’t be a test for the faint of heart or those short of clubhead speed. 

So quality ball-striking is the name of the game, and it goes without saying that the 70 assembling for the BMW Championship, for the most part, tick that box.

Or should that be 68. Tommy Fleetwood has declined to take part in the FedEx Cup, while a mysterious hip injury has caused the reportedly LIV Golf bound Cameron Smith to take the week off and hope he isn’t too far behind at the start of the TOUR Championship next week.

As has become an annual tradition, the top-30 in the standings will take their place at the money-spinning seasonal finale at East Lake, leaving the likes of Shane Lowry and Adam Scott with work to do to progress to the curtain call.

That race also has implications for our five betting picks, which you can see below in the rest of this 2022 BMW Championship sleeper shortlist.

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Billy Horschel – 66/1 – Quite simply, this is a pick based on price as much as anything else.

Billy Horschel won the Memorial Tournament not that long ago – we consider Muirfield village to be a potentially correlating course with Wilmington CC, and he was in decent order at the Open Championship too….historically an event in which he has struggled.

A missed cut at the St. Jude perhaps explains the sportsbooks’ reticence, but he gained strokes on approach in the first two rounds at TPC Southwind, and assuming his putting returns to his normal reliable standard, Horschel can outperform quotes of 66/1 this week.

J.T. Poston – 90/1 – It’s been a stellar few months for J.T. Poston, who has won the John Deere Classic, finished T2 at the Travelers and delivered three consecutive finishes of T21 or better since.

The reason is obvious – he is simply hitting the ball better, and he has gained strokes on the field on approach in five of his last six outings.

Currently sat 24 in the FedEx Cup standings, Poston has some work to do in booking his place at East Lake, but at a time when he is playing some of the best golf of his career, he will surely be confident of achieving exactly that.

Denny McCarthy – 125/1 – There will have been plenty of golf lovers and betting enthusiasts who would have expected better from Denny McCarthy in recent weeks.

Some had pinned him as a likely tournament winner, but three top-10s in his last seven starts have not yielded the silverware predicted.

One of the best putters on the planet, McCarthy has started to gain strokes on approach lately too – as he did at the St. Jude on his way to a T20 finish.

If McCarthy’s time is now, where better to win a long-awaited event than at a golf course that nobody has seen before?

Wyndham Clark – 150/1 – A long golf course anyway, potential rain over the weekend could see Wilmington CC play even longer.

That will prohibit some in the field from contending, but for bombers like Wyndham Clark it will creak open the door of opportunity.

Long off the tee and reliable on the greens, Clark has shown some improvement on approach lately – as evidenced by two top-tens and a T16 within his last seven starts. He has the tools to thrive at Wilmington, that’s for sure.

Trey Mullinax – 150/1 – We could have copy and pasted Clark’s description from above here – Trey Mullinax is another putt-orientated bomber.

But the improvement in his ball striking has been even more stark – he’s gained +0.70 strokes on the field on approach in three of his last four starts, which included victory at the Barbasol Championship.

But T21 at the British Open, followed by last week’s T5 at the St. Jude, suggests that Mullinax has taken a clear step up in grade – that confidence, and his prodigious length off the tee, could prove invaluable this week.

Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the BMW Championship here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

Total Top 3s

Total Top 10s

Total Top 25s

Total Winners Picked

Total Runners-Up Picked

Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)

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