The Safeway Open 2020 Tournament Preview

The thrilling conclusion to the 2019-20 season came with the back-and-forth TOUR Championship last week, but there’s no rest for the wicked and it’s off we go in the 2020-21 campaign with the Safeway Open.

There has been frustration for the tournament organizers with the news that those who were engaged in the TOUR Championship, and who had initially accepted an invitation to play, have since withdrawn, while a number of other big names have subsequently pulled out.

And so we have an event where the headline names are Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar and Shane Lowry. Yep, it’s one of those weeks.

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But such weak fields often breed opportunities for others, and the sense of the slate being wiped clean – the FedEx Cup points are reset at zero, remember – can bring the best out of those sensing an early season chance to make hay while the sun shines.

And boy, will the sun shine. There’s currently a heatwave warning in place in Napa Valley with temperatures in excess of 100°F, and that’s relevant because it may have a bearing on how the North Course at Silverado plays. Will the greens run fast? Will the rough be ‘burned’ off? Or will the surfaces be over watered and thus play slow and soft?

These are known unknowns, but we still have plenty of information to work with when placing our Safeway Open bets this week.

The Safeway Open 2020 Course Preview

It’s a question of rough at Silverado this week.

That’s because the narrow fairways on the North Course means that the short grass will be missed by all and sundry this week – especially if they are running fast – with an average driving accuracy of around 55% for even the tournament leaders here last year.

And so this is where the rough is key – will it be shallow and easy to play from, and thus missing a fairway doesn’t become a disaster, or will it be penal and place a premium on driving accuracy?

Historically at Silverado, the rough has not been too problematic, and so it could be a case of bombs away this week on a Par 72 track featuring four Par 5s – two of which at least can be tackled in two by the longer hitters.

The Poa Annua Greens normally run slow and are receptive too, and so Silverado has a habit of being something of a second shot golf course, where those who can hit their approaches closest – be it from the rough or otherwise – will thrive.

It’s not a golf course littered with hazards, aside from the odd bunker and water feature here and there, and so the thickness of the rough this week will determine whether the winning score is the -16 that is typical around this stretch or something around -20 or even lower.

The Safeway Open 2020 Outright Winner

As mentioned, the head of the betting market is not blessed with prolific winners or those who have been in earth shattering form of late.

And so it’s something of a surprise – to us and you – that Phil Mickelson is our pick in the outright winner market.

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He has something that few in the field have, and that is current form. Yes, his victory on the Champions Tour has to be taken with a pinch of salt, but anyone who saw Lefty hit the ball there spoke of how well he was playing.

Few can match his record on the west coast either, and there’s just something about the conditions – and the Poa Annua, presumably – that has contributed to so many of his PGA TOUR win haul.

We are assuming, of course, that the rough isn’t penal this week. If it isn’t, Phil could make his more junior rivals weep.

The Safeway Open 2020 Top 5 Finish Pick

The theme of taking a few liberties continues with our top-five finish pick.

There’s an element of smarts to backing Si-Woo Kim this week given how well he has been playing of late. His T13 at the PGA Championship was matched by T3 at the Wyndham Championship, and the foundation of both of those efforts was iron play magnificence.

Having described the North Course at Silverado as a second shot golf course clearly the Korean springs to mind, and his occasionally errant driving may not be punished badly.

With a decent history of form on Poa Annua, if Si-Woo’s form holds he stands an excellent chance this week.

The Safeway Open 2020 Top 10 Finish Pick

A player who appears on the brink of making his breakthrough on the PGA TOUR, there will be fewer opportunities as good as this for Doc Redman.

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A premium ball-striker, like many of his ilk it is on the greens where Redman struggles, but the hope is that if these Poa Annua greens run slowly he will hit his irons so close that a lack of confidence with the flat stick won’t be as disastrous.

Do poor putters prefer slow or fast greens? There’s been no concrete confirmation either way, but you suspect slower greens are preferable. Hopefully Doc agrees this week!

The Safeway Open 2020 Top 20 Finish Pick

With a weak field there are opportunities for others to step up to the plate, and his progress over the past 12 months or so suggests that Cameron Davis is a definite candidate for that this week.

There’s an obvious lack of current form in the field, and so Davis’ T12 at the 3M Open and T15 at the Wyndham Championship really sing compared to the records of others.

How do we rate golfers? Clearly, wins and top-10 finishers are the primary parameters, but there’s plenty to be said for season-long strokes gained stats and in 2019-20 Davis ranked 46th for SG: Tee-to-Green – in this field, and in this more forgiving betting market, that really does read well.

The Safeway Open 2020 Match-up to Watch

The nature of Silverado and its easy-going rough will lead some to taking a punt on Jordan Spieth this week.

And maybe that will prove fruitful, but he hasn’t shown a huge deal of quality in recent times as a formline of MC-72-71-30 attests.

It maybe a frugal idea to take Spieth on this week, and there will be no shortage of options to bettors. The case for Phil and Si-Woo has been made, and even the grinding games of Chez Reavie and Kevin Streelman can be favored over the inconsistent Spieth at a course he has never seen before.

Who to Fade this Week

The thing with golf betting is that when we have weak field events like this, the odds-setters tend to favor reputation over many other things.

It’s why the likes of Sergio Garcia are so well respected by the sportsbooks even though they really haven’t offered any suggestion that such optimism is deserved – the Spaniard doesn’t have a top-30 finish to his name in ten weeks and counting.

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Sergio has never visited Silverado before either, he doesn’t seem to be a huge fan of west coast golf, and he is an easy fade this week.

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