THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Tournament Preview

So here we go: after all the Covid-19 shenanigans, we’ve reached the end of the 2019-20 PGA TOUR season.

As is customary, we see in the finale of the campaign with the FedExCup playoffs, which kicks off with The Northern Trust this week. The top-125 in the standings will tee it up at TPC Boston, and the aim will be to ensure they are in the top-70 of the rankings to book their spot at the BMW Championship next week.

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One of the players with an ambition of doing exactly that is Jim Herman, who triumphed in the Wyndham Championship last week at sportsbook odds of 750/1 – he was 40/1 heading into the final round. He climbed from 192 to 54 in the FedExCup standings….a good week all-round then!

THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Course Preview

Will we see a 750/1 winner at The Northern Trust? It seems unlikely given the quality of the field and the fact that the classier types tend to thrive here – the last three winners at this venue have been Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas.

So maybe there’ll be no repeat of Jim Herman’s shock victory, but you would say that the door is ajar for a surprise winner given the simplicity of TPC Boston.

This Arnold Palmer design is there for the taking, with wide, straight fairways and average sized Bentgrass greens that run at a pure 12 on the stimpmeter. The primary defenses are the numerous green-side bunkers and the weather – the forecast suggests it’s set fair in Norton, Massachusetts this week.

The average winning score when this layout hosted the Dell Technologies Championship was -16, and we would expect something of that ilk if not lower this time around too – especially with a field of this quality in town.

THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Outright Winner

Hit it long, chip it close and make the putt.

There’s nothing particularly sophisticated about Bryson DeChambeau 2.0, but already in the time since the resumption of the season – in which he revealed his new muscle-bound physique – he has shown tremendous form.

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A winner at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and top-five last time out at the PGA Championship, Bryson’s versatility makes him a danger at all courses. But especially so at TPC Boston, with its straight lines off the tee, wide fairways and receptive greens.

There are a few holes on this layout where length is a major advantage – the Par 5s, primarily, which can all be attacked in two by the longer hitters, and also a couple of the Par 4s which – pin position pending – can also lead to eagle putts for long drivers.

Bryson ticks all of the boxes this week….

THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Top 5 Finish Pick

With three top-10s in his last four starts, Tony Finau has been troubling this betting market on a consistent basis, and at a layout which suits his game we’d expect something similar this time out.

There are a couple of flaws in Finau’s game – his occasionally errant driving and his inconsistency with the putter, and while we’re in the lap of the gods with the latter problem, at least he will have plenty of room off the tee at TPC Boston.

A birdie machine, Finau boasts an elite approach game and he has been approving on and around the greens, and the beauty of taking him in this market is that we don’t need to worry about this notoriously shy closer taking the W.

THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Top 10 Finish Pick

You can get odds of 66/1 on Sungjae Im with the sportsbooks, and that looks to be a fantastic price given his proven quality.

But we can get plenty of juice from the Top-10 market with the Korean, who would have landed for bettors with his T9 effort at the Wyndham Championship last week.

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He played his final 54 holes in -15 to fire up the leaderboard, and most pleasing was that all aspects of his game were in fine order.

An outstanding driver of the ball, Im should put himself in plenty of excellent positions this week.

THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Top 20 Finish Pick

If Matthew Wolff takes his ball-striking form from the PGA Championship into this week, he’ll have his sights set much higher than a top-20 finish.

But it’s an excellent starting point for our bets, given that he ranked inside the top-five for both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach at TPC Harding Park.

It’s still early in his career, but this unusual combination – Bentgrass greens, but on the east coast – could really suit a young man raised in California but who has since relocated to the Florida.

A winner at another Arnold Palmer design at TPC Twin Cities, Wolff looks the real deal this week.

THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Match-up to Watch

In two trips to TPC Boston, Xander Schauffele has finished 49-53, and there is a feeling that he is a golfer who best thrives in tough conditions where ‘defensive’ golf is key.

At TPC Boston he will be met by perfect conditions and an easy, scorable golf course, and so we’re happy to swerve Xander in favor of another hot young property – Collin Morikawa.

The PGA Championship winner’s iron game is amongst the very best in the world, and don’t forget his putting performance last time out – if he can replicate that here, he will take some stopping.

Who to Fade this Week

While necessary for his health and wellbeing, a clack of competitive action on the part of Tiger Woods will surely get found in this high quality field.

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There won’t be too much strategy this week – it’s all about hitting bombs off the tee, and that in itself is a physical test as much as it is a test of skill. Against hungry young stars half his age, Tiger may just be found wanting.

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