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targets set by President Trump, and as a result, the president is expected to appoint more experienced Powell to the chair. In such a situation, Taylor will be appointed to the position of lieutenant and join the Fed’s board of directors to help the administration get Senate approval for appointments.So where is the risk-taking argument for markets anyway? Probably the most important decision to surprise the markets is to appoint the youngest of the group, 47-year-old Kevin Worsh, a lawyer and former senior at Morgan Stanley Bank.According to Uri Greenfeld, chief economist and chief strategist at Summits, Worsh has the closest views of President Trump on regulation issues and personal relationships with him. Worsh served as economic advisor to President George W. Bush before joining the Fed Board in 2006. At the beginning of the financial crisis, he was a member of Governor Ben Bernanke’s “room of war” at the time, brainstorming and raising ideas before Bernanke presented them to the entire Central Bank Board of Governors.Worsh was a member of the Fed’s board of directors under Bernanke Whelan and resigned in 2011 due to disagreements with Yellen regarding continued quantitative expansion policy. According to Greenfeld, it is also worth noting that Warsaw also objected to the second quantitative expansion that Bernanke implemented, claiming that it was a risky one that could generate inflationary pressures. In retrospect, Worsh of course was wrong and big, but Lellen and Powell seem to be a relatively hawkish candidate. According to forecasts, the Fed has left US interest rates unchangedThe Federal Reserve’s open market committee released its decision – interest Rate remains unchanged ■ Will begin reducing balance sheet in October ■ Mixed lockdown at the end of Wall Street day as predicted, Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. At the current meeting, however, there is a more than 50% chance that the Fed will announce a rate hike in December.Futures will trade a 99% chance of yielding interest rates in the range of 1% -1.25%.The US central bank is currently at a point where


it has to decide when to stop expanding policy – which is talking about raising interest rates but the real “bomb” is down to the dreadful $ 4.5 trillion balance sheet and today provided the answer – from next month.Recall that earlier this month, Federal Reserve Vice President Stanley Fisher, who previously served as Governor of the Bank of Israel, announced his resignation on October 13 after three years at the US Central Bank. Fisher justified his decision on “personal reasons.”His term was scheduled to end in June 2018, and Fisher estimates he was to be appointed Fed chairman, but recently the possibility was raised that President Donald Trump’s plans for US economic leadership would not appoint Fisher. Yellen herself is scheduled to leave her position in February 2018.Macro: At 17:

00, US home sales data were released in August. The forecast was for 5.46 million transactions (annualized), and the final figure was 5.35 million. At 17:30, the crude oil stock was published In the US last week, it was expected to record 2.8 million barrels after a sharper increase (5.9 million barrels) recorded in the week before, but recorded a much sharper rise: 4.6 million barrels  Stanley Fisher resigned as Federal Reserve ChairmanFisher, 73, appointed Deputy Governor of the US Reserve Bank by Janet Yellen in 2014 by then-President Barack Obama ■ His resignation comes into effect on October 13, Federal Reserve Vice President Stanley Fisher, who previously served In the post of Governor of the Bank of Israel, he announced his resignation to take effect on October 13 after three years at the US Central Bank. Fischer reasoned his decision for “personal reasons.”Fisher, 73, was appointed by President Barack Obama in 2014 as Deputy Speaker of the Federal Reserve and his term was slated to end in June 2018. Fisher was expected to be appointed Fed chairman but was recently offered the possibility of President Donald Trump’s upheaval in economic leadership American will not be appointed Fisher Recently, Fisher made headlines following a flamboyant speech in which he said the world will not survive


another economic crisis in the 2008 crisis style. It should be noted that the US Central Bank is currently at a significant decision point where it will have to decide when to stop expanding policy – although Talk about raising interest rates but the real “bomb” is on Reducing the tremendous $ 4.5 trillion balance sheet.Stanley Fisher’s retirement looks like good news to US President Donald Trump, who could soon build a central bank for his heart. Just recently, incumbent governor Janet Yellen got in trouble with the president when he expressed support for the financial regulation known as “David-Frank”, which former President Barak signed Obama, and Trump longs to cancel.In the past, the US president said he was considering appointing Yellen for another term in the Fed, but even then, his remarks seemed to be out of language – and that was before her remarks. He always seemed to want to appoint someone else for the job, someone who believes in extreme market deregulation. Fisher, who is Yellen’s nominee, now goes home and leaves her a bit more alone. Yellen herself is scheduled to leave her position in February 2018. Fisher, who was due to leave in June 2018, may have saved himself six months of tenure under a major governor who would not believe his way  Investors are waiting for Mario Draghi’s performance at Jackson HallECB President Mario Draghi is expected to focus most attention on the Federal Reserve’s annual conference this weekend at Jackson Hall The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hall annual conference in Wyoming in August has become a central bank showcase for the past decade . They are coming to the small town, revealing their new policy in the era of the financial crisis. Usually the Fed itself is in the spotlight, but sometimes others steal the show – such as ECB President Mario Draghi.Dragi is expected to concentrate most of his attention on a conference opening this weekend at Jackson Hall, as he will deliver one of the keynote address at the conference. He did it one last time in 2014: Then he promised in a lunchtime speech to use “all the tools at our disposal” to curb the downward


trend in inflation, laying the groundwork for a European government bond buying program – six years after the Federal Reserve began its move ” Just as Dragy laid out the conceptual framework for quantitative easing in 2014, the nickname for buying bonds, European Central Bank observers think his re-appearance at Jackson Hall this week will give him the opportunity to review the evidence and describe this time why it should be completed in 2018. Emphasize the policy that has produced positive results, especially a significant drop in unemployment in the euro area.In June, unemployment in this area dropped to 9.1%, the lowest rate since February 2009. In August 2014, unemployment was 11.5%. The number of unemployed has dropped by 3.7 million since then. Economic growth also strengthened: in the 12 months ended June 2014, the euro economy grew by only 1.1%. Three years later, growth rose to 2.2%.There is also progress towards meeting the ECB inflation target, which is almost 2% per year. “There will be little congratulations to the ECB on a controversial policy in 2014,” said Dominic Bryant, economist at BNP Pariba Bank. “But Draghi will want to leave the message that monetary support for the European economy is still needed.” The Federal Reserve buys time (and prays that inflation will rise)The Fed top can actually wait until December to see inflation return to its desired level of 2% a year, or think how to respond if it doesn’t, the Federal Reserve, the US Federal Reserve, is very lucky or smart. By signaling that he would not touch interest rates again until December, he bought himself time for a longer and more necessary discussion on inflation. There are doubts, very legitimate, that traditional models can explain what’s going on – and more precisely what isn’t (no inflation).The minutes of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting in July released Wednesday show a widespread debate over inflation and why it is on the decline instead of progressing, with unemployment in the economy only 4.3%. The central bank is shocked that prices have been “soft” for several months. In the absence of any real inflationary pressure, one can expect the Fed to take time off from raising interest rates until it has an idea of ​​what is happening. When the Fed operated in March and June and raised interest rates, and signaled that in September it would begin to reduce its bond balance, it bought itself some leeway.The Fed top can actually wait until December to see inflation return to its desired trajectory, 2% per year, or think how to respond if it doesn’t. Fed has a meeting at the end of


October, but the central bank’s historic reluctance to act in the absence of new forecasts and without a scheduled press conference removes any possibility of surprise in October.The postponement until December gives Fed officials at least another four months of inflation data. Most of them still expect it to reach its target, in line with traditional economic models – and to be fair, I would point out that this is not just a US phenomenon: inflation is also weak in Europe and Japan, despite a clear increase in growth (in the UK the central bank’s inflation target, and the barcasite complicate its picture) .But the US is still the world’s largest economy, and the Fed is still the de facto World Bank. US capital markets are dwarfing others, despite frequent forecasts of their decline. So – how the US inflation mystery will end is the key question.And what if this book didn’t end? The Fed meeting protocol reflects some doubts that are beginning to emerge alongside the confidence of most Fed leaders. Most of the participants indicated that they expect inflatio

n to rise from its current low in the coming years, stabilizing around the 2% target in the medium term. However, many participants in the debate saw some likelihood that inflation would remain below 2% for a longer period than they currently expect. Some participants noted that the risk of inflation forecasts is more downward. The protocol even contains some statements of apostasy mainly on the relationship between very low unemployment and inflation and wages, although the majority still believe in traditional models. By the time we start to see inflation rising to the target level of 2% per year, there will probably be more skeptical statements in this style. Less surprising was the Fed’s skepticism about the prospects for a budget package of economic incentives from Congress and the White House. Some participants expressed doubt that such a package would come at all, and if so, they suspect the size of the economy would be smaller than previously expected. There was not much opposition to this assessment.Recall that on the last day of August, the Federal Department of Commerce will publish inflation figures for the current month. In the meantime, enjoy the debate.  As expected: US federal interest rates will remain at their current level


The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its two-day meeting with unsurprising announcement ■ The decision comes against the backdrop of lukewarm US inflation figures ■ Reduced balance sheet at the end of its two-day meeting, the Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced Of the US Federal Reserve that decided to leave the interest rate at its current level of 1% -1.25%.In a statement issued by the FOMC, the Commission appears to have begun the work of laying the foundations for reducing the Fed’s massive incentive program following the financial crisis. The reduction in the Federal Reserve’s accumulated balance of assets, estimated at $ 4.5 trillion in bonds, is expected to begin in September.The reduction plan is expected to start at about $ 10 billion a month and grow quarterly, to $ 50 billion a month. Fed officials predict that by the end of the move, the US Central Bank’s balance sheet will be $ 2 trillion. Prior to the announcement, futures contracts would have a 97% chance of a decision leaving interest rates unchanged.Federal Reserve Chairman and FOMC Janet Yellen recently made statements to US lawmakers about the central bank’s monetary policy, saying that Fed officials are following inflation rates “very carefully” after tepid macro data has hit the Fed’s target (pace 2% annual) show too ambitious.US employment report: unemployment rate rose to 4.4%US Department of Labor released monthly employment report data ■ Bright spot: Addition of 222,000 jobs to the labor market – Above the early expectation of 175,000 jobs, the US Employment Report was published in June. The US economy (non-agricultural sector) was added 222 last month A thousand jobs, after adding 147,000 jobs in May.The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, although it was expected to remain unchanged at the 4.3% low.The average wage in the country (the non-agricultural sector), which was expected to climb 0.3%, rose at a lower rate – about 0.2%, keeping pace with the May rate.


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