Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Commentary (Updated: April 18, 2024): Jonathan Bailey, acclaimed for his performances as Olly Stevens in “Broadchurch” and Lord Anthony in “Bridgerton,” has landed his most high-profile role to date in Showtime’s “Fellow Travelers.” In his role, Bailey portrays Tim Laughlin, a young congressional staffer entangled in a romantic relationship with a World War II veteran, played by Matt Bomer. Executing an empathetic and poignant portrayal, earned him critical acclaim, including a major win at this year’s Critics Choice Awards, where he surpassed competitors such as Lewis Pullman (“Lessons in Chemistry”) and Taylor Kitsch (“Painkiller”).
Meanwhile, Robert Downey Jr., riding high from his Academy Award win for Christopher Nolan’s best picture winning drama “Oppenheimer,” could be in line to achieve a rare feat. He aims to be the first man, and third person overall, to win both an Emmy and an Oscar acting awards in the same year. In HBO/Max’s satirical black comedy “The Sympathizer,” Downey Jr. showcases his versatility by playing four distinct characters, a performance that positions him as a strong contender for his second Emmy nomination. His first came 23 years ago in supporting comedy actor in the classic “Ally McBeal.”
Also in the realm, FX’s “Shōgun” has been leading the pack as a frontrunner the past few weeks, though its prospects in the acting categories have remained uncertain given the strong competition from many seasoned nominees and winners. Tadanobu Asano is emerging as a standout contender, while his co-stars Takehiro Hira and Yûki Kedôin are also potential inclusions, enhancing the series’ visibility on the awards circuit.
We’re two months from Emmy nomination voting and its already heating up.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Robert Downey Jr. — “The Sympathizer” (Max) 2 Tadanobu Asano — “Shōgun” (FX) 3 Jonathan Bailey — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) 4 Hugh Grant — “The Regime” (Max) 5 Lewis Pullman — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) 6 John Hawkes — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max) 7 Treat Williams — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: COURTESY OF ATSUSHI NISHIJIMA/NETFLIX Next in Line
Rank Performer and Series 8 Mark Ruffalo — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix) 9 Joe Keery — “Fargo” (FX) 10 Lamorne Morris — “Fargo” (FX) 11 Ron Cephas Jones — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic) 12 Christopher Eccleston — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max) 13 Harvey Keitel — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock) 14 Barry Keoghan — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+) 15 Takehiro Hira — “Shōgun” (FX) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: Nick Wall/Netflix Also in Contention
Rank Performer and Series 16 Clive Owen — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX) 17 Josh Hartnett — “Black Mirror” (Netflix) 18 Tom Pelphrey — “A Man in Full” (Netflix) 19 Tony Curran — “Mary & George” (Starz) 20 Johnny Flynn — “Ripley” (Netflix) 21 Aml Ameen — “A Man in Full” (Netflix) 22 Taylor Kitsch — “Painkiller” (Netflix) 23 McKinley Belcher III — “Eric” (Netflix) 24 Will Ferrell — “Quiz Lady” (Hulu) 25 Donald Sutherland — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Eligible Performances (Supporting Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Michelle Faye/FX **The list below is not complete and have been confirmed as officially submitted. All information is subject to change. Grouped by network that airs each series.
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More Information (Supporting Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ 2023 category winner: Paul Walter Hauser — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Other Awards Predictions
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