Some Interesting Cases
Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins
You would think that Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski. They have often been vocal critics of Trump and have the most political independence from him. They also are not up for re-election. However, they aren’t compelled to Vote against him either, unlike Susan Collins. So, I really don’t consider them higher than Tier 2.
Cory Gardner
This senator of Colorado is one of the most endangered ones in 2020, and who would suffer the most consequences by supporting Trump. Yet, that is not how he has been acting. A likely reason is that in this regard, the Trump team knows what they are doing. With atypical discretion, they have applied every carrot and stick to keep Gardner from defecting.
Richard Burr
Senator Burr was the Republican leader in the Senate investigation of Russian involvement in the 2016 election. That and the numbers would suggest he would at least be a voice of concern. However, so far, crickets. Either he is more partisan than he presented himself, or he is trying to be a principled juror and just not say anything.
Tim Scott
Talk about a mixed record. As the only black Republican senator, he has more than once criticized Trump’s behavior when it comes to racism. However, as representing a pro-Trump state, South Carolina, he has been more equivocal with the impeachment. Consider Tim Scott’s response to Trump’s lynching tweet.
Ron Johnson
OK, here’s one potentially for the history books. Again, by the numbers, Ron Johnson should be at least willing to go along with voting against Trump. However, there is a catch. He may be implicated in the crime, and reportedly talked to Ukraine officials while this was going on. At the least, he knew about the transgression. At worst, he participated.
Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul
What these three have in common is that they all have at some time been exceptionally critical of Trump and have, in turn, become hypocritical and sycophantic supporters of him. And, of note, they all three need Republican partisan support from their states. Rubio perhaps could change this, but at least that is the case for him now.
But more importantly, they all had, before Trump, voice ideologies that should make them hi staunch critics. And they have good reason to hate him. Voting to remove Trump may not be the most politically smart move, but there would be a personal upside. Yes, it would be seen as cynical and disloyal by Republicans, but that would not be so new for them. And none are up for re-election in 2020. Heck, if they break soon enough, they could all run for President again in 2024.
I would not say turning on Trump is likely, but it’s not zero.
Mitch McConnell
Of course, Moscow Mitch is the most relevant senator in this process. The conventional wisdom is that he would want to get the trial over with as soon as possible, and that certainly is what he has been signaling. However, let’s consider him delaying the trial.
First, I don’t buy into the idea that quicker is necessarily better for either party. For all the arguments for sooner, I can think of one for later. Yes, too long is bad, but that could leave months or even a year. In the end, it’s all really a guess. And there is a potential upside for waiting.
Consider the case of Susan Collins. Current polling says she will lose the 2020 election if she votes to exonerate. However, if she votes to remove, she is likely to get a Primary Challenger. And that pretty much sums up the case for any other senator where this vote is a tough choice.
But, what if the vote were after March next year when it would be too late for a primary challenger to file. Note that the bigger threat of voting against Trump is in the primary, not the general election. So, if the vote was late enough Collins could vote as she needed with no primary threat. And I expect other senators have a similar case.
More so, what if Moscow Mitch waited until after the election. If Trump has lost, then the vote will have limited consequences. If Trump won, the Senate could vote to remove him if they wished. Then they have the best of both worlds. A reduced backlash from Trump supporters and the much more acceptable President Pence.
Yeah, I don’t see these scenarios as likely. But, again, not impossible.
