What Will the Midterms Change?

Is there going to be a blue wave or a red wave? Most likely they’ll be both, or at least that’s how it will be spun.

So, here’s the deal. Only in sports and board games are there clear winners and losers. Whether it’s war, business, elections, or otherwise, there is always the opportunity to argue that you won even if you lost. You just redefine what winning is. Note that in the famous and celebrate battle at Marathon, the Spartans lost. They just lost well.

So, with the most likely result of the Democrats winning the House and the Republicans keeping the Senate, both will be able to declare victory, even if only by one seat.

But, of course, regardless of spin, reality does matter. Each seat will count in effecting 2020 election. Personally, I’ll be excited if the Republicans win only one or two senators and ecstatic if they lose even one. For the same reason, I’ll be concerned if the Democrats win less than thirty. Each case puts the Congress in danger in 2020 independent of who wins the Presidency.

So, what’s really is at stake?

Here’s the breakdown of probabilities as per FiveThirtyEight’s House and Senate forecasts (approximately):

70% that the Republicans keep the Senate and lose the House T
15% that Democrats win both the Senate and the House
15% that Republicans keep both the Senate and the House

Note that the likelihood that the Republicans win the House but lose the Senate is not worth mentioning. That’s because elections are not independent of each other. If Democrats win the Senate, they are assured the House, and if Republicans keep the House then so the Senate.

In the most likely case of split government, no significant legislation passes, and the House will spend most of its time doing investigations. The Senate will focus on countering House investigations and getting more judges. Though, you have probably, so let me try some more ambitious predictions.

• Nancy Pelosi does not remain House Majority leader. My thinking here is that there will be a lot of new representatives that want a different speaker
• There will be a Republican challenger against the President for 2020. I expect that Trump will have lost his mojo, and some Republican politician will see this as an opportunity.
• There will be no drama around debt limits, funding the government, etc. Most of the new representatives will be from districts where they are punished for that. 

What I don’t know well enough to predict is whether Trump gets impeach or will his chances of reelection change. That depends on how aggressive the House is willing to be and what they find. The House will probably issue subpoenas, but are they ready to act if the subjects refuse to answer the question? Are they willing to jail them for contempt (as was done in the McCarthy hearings)? If they cite presidential privilege, are they willing to take it to court? How will the courts rule? What happens if the subject pleads the Fifth?

Also stating the obvious is that Trump has given up on the House and is focusing on the Senate, hoping to ensure he is not removed from office. However, I’m not sure that won’t backfire. I can always find 17 to 19 senators that would be willing to vote against him, either because they’ve already decided to retire, or they’ve just been re-elected and have six years to recover. But, we would have to find something bad. Really bad. More than we’ve suspected. And that’s really bad. Honestly, as low my opinion of the President, I’m uncertain that he is that much a criminal.

Not much changes if Democrats win the Senate as well. The margin will be too small with no good reason to end the Filibuster. The only difference will be that no more conservative judges are appointed, but in that case, most of the damage has already been done.

Regardless, of Democrats winning both or one, the margin does matter. First, a few representatives and one senator could be the difference as to who controls the Congress in 2020. Also, it affects what the Republicans can do. As of now, their biggest obstacles have been themselves and the willingness of a few members to block the rest. With a lower margin that makes it more likely. Finally, a lot can happen in two years: congressman can switch parties, leave because of scandal, or (God forbid) die.

However, if Republicans keep the House, then it is over. If that happens, despite all the evidence (polls, special elections, protests, etc.) that Democrats should win, then there is something fundamentally wrong America. It means my country is controlled by greed, selfishness, cowardice, bigotry, and racism as is feared. And worse, those horrid impulses will be empowered. Our only recourse is to look to the next generation because mine is a lost cause. Though there is hope for now BECAUSE all the evidence says Republicans, and by extension Trump, will lose.

Needless to say, be sure to vote.