(May8) The Trump administration is annoyed at Saudi Arabia's inability to keep oil prices high enough to enable US shale producers to make any profit and some think the partial withdrawal is intended to punish the Saudis.
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US claims Iran threat is less now
The original rationale for sending troops and equipment to Saudi Arabia was claimed to be threats from Iran. The buildup happened after missiles probably from Yemen his Saudi oil producing facilities. Now the US will withdraw two Patriot missile batteries it had sent along with a number of planes. The two missile batteries and planes were to guard the oil facilities. About 300 troops who operated the batteries will also be withdrawn. However, at least two Patriot batteries remain at the Prince Sultan Airbase in the Saudi desert along with other air defense systems as well as jet fighters.
Conclusion The US no doubt hopes that the withdrawal will coax the Saudis into further attempts to reduce oil production and help raise prices for oil. However, there needs to be further reduction in production by other countries to also cut production as there has been a sharp drop in global demand. It seems unlikely that there will be any very damaging attack on the Saudis from Iran or anyone else. There is no needed for the US to spend a great deal to assure Saudi security. The forces remaining should be sufficient. However, attacks in Iraq by Iran-supported militia has resulted in the US sending Patriot systems into Iraq to protect bases there. Some bases have been closed to consolidate US troops in larger bases which can be adequately defended. The US was angered when the Saudis ramped up oil production slashing prices earlier this year. US Republicans accused the kingdom of creating even more instability in the oil market that was already weak because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tho cost of production for US shale producers became greater than the selling price. The result was layoff in the industry often in states where Republicans were in power. It remains to be seen whether the Saudis will find the US move a significant reduction in security which will cause them to action that would help raise prices. It seems more likely that they will accept the status quo. This may be acceptable to the US. Trump has always wanted to reduce US troops overseas and be less involved in what he has sometimes called useless wars. A partial withdrawal from Saudi may be acceptable to both parties.
