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2023 General Election: Electorate voting guide Part One: Auckland Central to Northland...

For some time now, I've tried to put together an electorate voting guide for those with a libertarian bent. Whether you Vote ACT, National or any other party you think will advance more freedom and less government, you know that with a few exceptions, it is the Party vote that is critical in determining the numbers in Parliament.  Electorate votes are either in safe Labour, safe National or marginal seats, or in a few cases seats that are or might be won by a minor party (Greens, Te Pati Maori, NZ First, ACT or now TOP).

You can choose to not bother if you don't like any of them, but I'm suggesting that in most cases it is worth making a selection.  A general rule of thumb is if it is a safe Labour or National seat, you ought to vote for a minor party candidate who is promising, or if the Nat is of a more classically liberal bent, then maybe vote for him or her.  However, the seats where the Greens or Te Pati Maori hold or are likely to win, keep them out. Both parties are antithetical to values of individual freedom, less government, free market capitalism and Enlightenment values around freedom of speech and private property rights. 

Auckland Central:
Chloe Swarbrick took this in 2020 and she will be confident she’ll keep it, but Chloe is a rabid socialist with a penchant for cheering on Palestinians who want to wipe out Israel.  She’s also a complete control freak on alcohol, so we don’t need a neo-puritanical moral equivocator here. Removing the Greens from having an electorate is the most important goal here, so given it was a National seat for so long, give Mahesh Muralidhar from National a tick, to evict Chloe. He’s an entrepreneur, although he has a MBA, don’t hold it against him, as he’ll be better than Oscar Sims from Labour.   Mahesh Muralidhar, National

Banks Peninsula:
Held by Tracey McLellan of Labour, there’s no point voting for a former union organiser and expecting less government.  However her main opponent is National candidate Dr Vanessa Weenink who is a GP who has had roles in the doctors’ union. She seems better and has a chance, but if you want to give a libertarian a tick, vote for Laura Trask of ACT, who declares herself to be a libertarian.  Laura Trash, ACT

Bay of Plenty:
Todd Muller is standing down, but this is a safe National seat and Tom Rutherford is likely to win. He seems like a nice enough chap but his background is experience in communications, media and local government. Haven’t we had enough of that sort of thing? Cameron Luxton is the ACT candidate, but he is number 11, so has a high chance of getting elected anyway and he’s a tradesman, so he’s of better use outside Parliament. Meh, give Luxton a tick so the Nats pick someone who isn’t a spin doctor.  Cameron Luxton, ACT

Botany:
Luxon’s seat, used to elect Jamie-Lee Ross.  Now Luxon is no libertarian, but if you’d rather not vote for a future PM, your choices are not great. Bo Burns from ACT says nothing to convince me she believes in less government, indeed being on the Howick Local Board is a bit of a red flag. Sure social conservatives could support Dieuwe de Boer from the New Conservatives, but he’s no libertarian. No enthusiasm here at all, but I’d probably default to Luxon, as he’s done nothing seriously wrong, yet.  Christopher Luxon, National

Christchurch Central:
The sitting MP Duncan Webb (Labour) is an odious little creep who is well known for being a member of a Palestinian solidary Facebook group that tolerates rabid anti-semitism and Holocaust denial. It’s not always been a Labour seat, but it is morally compelling to vote for the candidate most likely to evict this socialist who is National candidate Dale Stephens. Yes he was a cop, and there is little sign he holds much belief in free enterprise and reducing the size of the state, but the imperative here is to remove Webb.  Dale Stephens, National

Christchurch East
Labour’s Poto Williams is thankfully standing down, with the new candidate for Labour being Reuben Davidson who seems tedious and uninteresting.  National is offering Matt Stock, a teacher who seems nice enough, but Toni Severin from ACT, who is currently a list MP, is a better bet as she talks about freedom, school choice and less government.  Toni Severin, ACT

Coromandel:
National’s Scott Simpson holds this seat and is almost certain to win again.  He is a social liberal, but Joanna Verburg from ACT seems a better bet being more committed to freedom.  Joanna Verburg, ACT

Dunedin:
With David Clark retiring, Labour is punting up List MP Rachel Brooking in this safe seat.  She’s a former lawyer with a specialty in resource management law, so don’t expect a lot of belief in private property rights. Michael Woodhouse is the perennial National candidate who has only really a tinge of supporting more freedom and less government. However, ACT candidate Tim Newman is pushing for a tram through Dunedin, which isn’t going to come from private investment is it?  So go for Adrian McDermott from the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party because well, he believes in something.  Adrian McDermott, Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party

East Coast:
With Kiri Allan bowing out, Tamati Coffey as Labour list MP is having another shot at winning an electorate. He’s out of his depth and Rawiri Waititi beat him in Waiariki during a Labour landslide, so he’s useless as a campaigner and let’s not forget he sponsored the racist draft Bill (Rotorua District Council (Representation Arrangements) Bill) to give Rotorua District Counci Maori seats that required far fewer voters to elect Councillors than general seats. This himbo needs to be defeated, so although Dana Kirkpatrick from National is not compelling, it is worth to vote for her to kick this carpetbagger out of Parliament.  Dana Kirkpatrick, National

East Coast Bays:
Erica Stanford for National is safe here, and whilst she has some passion for change that is positive, having been on the record that National could work with the Greens and being supportive of a School Strike 4 Climate, you would think you could better than her. Michael McCook of ACT might be promising, but he’s a tax accountant who wants more representation of small business at the government level. How’s that consistent with free enterprise and less government? Paul Adams of New Zeal looks no better, and Bill Dyet from New Zealand Loyal seems like a nut. Labour list MP Naisi Chen is likely to just be worse than Stanford.  Honestly, I’d just not bother.   

Epsom: 
David Seymour is a shoo-in here nowadays but given his efforts to dilute measures to enhance the property rights of local property owners, there should be a review of the other options. Labour list MP Camilla Belich is a union lawyer, so forget her. National’s Paul Goldsmith isn’t inspiring either, being opposed to cannabis legalisation, even though he was brave in saying he thought colonisation was, on balance, good for Maori. There’s nothing inspiring in the NZ First and TOP candidates to support freedom (and NZ Loyal are lunatics), so you might give Seymour a tick for his efforts in standing up to a lot of abuse for having some very defensible positions.  David Seymour, ACT

Hamilton East:
Hamilton East is a marginal and tends to vote National more often than not, although it is held by Jamie Strange of Labour, as a rare social conservative in Labour, he’s not standing again. Georgie Dansey is standing, she is a union chief executive, so there is nothing here about less government. Ryan Hamilton, the National candidate has the best chance, who is a city councillor (sigh) and a small business owner. That’s not particularly inspiring, but bear in mind this is a marginal seat, you may just want to keep Labour out, which is a worthy goal. If you want someone a bit more interesting, Himanshu Parma, who has a real passion for whisky, is the ACT candidate and is much more promising.  We need more MPs with passion for alcohol.  Himanshu Parma, ACT

Hamilton West:
Remember Guarav Sharma? Well he’s not wasting time and money standing against Labour again. This seat is held by National’s Tama Potaka who ought to hold it and has a fairly impressive business background. Voting for him to keep Myra Williamson from Labour (who has a Ph.D from the University of Waikato) is reasonable, given Susan Stevenson from ACT says nothing about freedom on her profile. Tama Potaka, National

Hauraki-Waikato:
One of the Maori electorates, you would think Nanaia Mahuta should be safe here given the tendency to vote for the family name. Mahuta is behind the push for co-governance and eroding liberal democracy at local government with unelected Iwi members, and she is uninspiring as Foreign Minister, having “both-sided” Israel and Hamas with her first comment on the recent brutal attacks. The excuse of it being drafted by MFAT is not being accountable. So I’d be happy if Mahuta lost, but look at the alternatives. The main challenge is Te Pati Maori’s Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke. Leaving aside the threats and home invasion story, Maipi-Clarke is notable for blaming other people’s ideas for the threats and she wrote a book on astrology. There’s no point voting for a young communist to replace one of the old guard who whilst flawed is much less dangerous.  The third option may be tempting but Donna Pokere-Philips stood for Te Pati Maori in 2020 and stood for TOP in 2017 (and was number 6 on the list, which tells you a LOT about how useless TOP was in screening candidates) and in 1999 stood for the hard-left Alliance.  She may lead the Outdoors & Freedom Party now, but who knows what she believes in other than opposing the Covid vaccine (which she apparently described as a bio-weapon)? Pokere-Philips might be tempting to be disruptive, but since she hops all over the political spectrum she can hardly be trusted. Just hold out and pick Nanaia Mahuta, Labour if at all to keep TPM out.

Hutt South:
This never really was a marginal, as it used to be considered safe Labour, but Chris Bishop changed all that.  Ginny Andersen took it from him in 2020, and she’s hardly the worst Labour MP, but she’s been hopeless as a Cabinet Minister, and so it is right to vote to remove her. Your choice is Chris Bishop for National, who is indefatigable locally, or Andy Parkins for ACT, who claims to be in favour of freedom and personal responsibility. Bishop is passionate about enabling more housing to be built, even if he doesn’t have quite the right solution yet (there needs to be mandatory liberalisation of planning laws to build up and out, not leaving it to Councils who are the problem). He is a social liberal. Take it off Labour and pick Chris Bishop, National

Ikaroa-Rawhiti:
Meka Whaitiri’s seat which she has left to join Te Pati Maori, so she shouldn’t be rewarded for joining the socialist ethno-nationalists. To stop her you have to vote for Cushla Tangaere‑Manuel of Labour. Ata Tuhakaraina of Vision NZ (Destiny Church) has his own story of turning his life around, and isn’t a bad choice, but let’s be serious. None of these candidates will be advocating for more freedom and less government.  The priority here is keeping Te Pati Maori’s ethno-nationalism away from Parliament, so it is Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, Labour

Ilam:
Feel relieved that Gerry Brownlee isn’t standing, but Sarah Pallett from Labour has to go. She’s just another unionist.  Of course Raf Manji from TOP is standing here as well, but TOP believes in more state, more welfare and he is campaigning for pork-barrel funding for Christchurch. It’s like the public service has its own party.  Enough of that, it is important to block TOP and Pallett, so give Hamish Campbell from National your vote, just to clear them out of the way.

Invercargill:
On paper this looks marginal as National’s Penny Simmonds won it by a small margin in 2020, but this is usually a safe National seat. Simmonds opposed vaccine mandates and opposed suppression of the speech of abortion opponents near hospitals, which might gain her more support than she would get otherwise.  Scott Donaldson of ACT talks vaguely about freedoms.  There’s no strong reason to oppose Simmonds, but her willingness to speak up on vaccine mandates is rare in the National Party, so I’d say Penny Simmonds, National

Kaikoura:
Another safe mostly rural National seat, held by Stuart Smith. Having been Chair of the Winegrowers’ Association wins credit in my book, but given this is a safe seat it is worth looking around for better options. Keith Griffiths of ACT is not inspiring, and David Greenslade from the New Conservatives is into binding citizens’ initiated referenda, so that’s out. The independents are either unknown or weird. On balance, vote for the wine man. Stuart Smith, National

Kaipara ki Mahurangi:
Chris Penk is National MP in this fairly safe seat, he is interesting because he actually speaks his mind. He is a bit of a social conservative given voting on euthanasia and abortion and transgenderism, but I’m not holding all that against him as the guy has a sense of humour. A lawyer who spent time in the navy is interesting sure. Brent Bailey from ACT is better than some ACT candidates in talking about excessive government intervention, but on balance Penk seems to deserve another shot. Chris Penk, National

Kelston:
This safe Labour seat is held by Carmel Sepuloni and she is currently Deputy PM.  You absolutely wont want a prospective future leader of the party of democratic socialism, but you’re unlikely to unseat her, but Dr Ruby Shaumkel from National is smart and better than Jake Curran from ACT who says “public service is his calling”. We don’t need more ACT MPs who think that. Alister Hood from the New Conservatives talks explicitly about tax cuts, the doubling in the size of government, although localism is not individualism.  You might consider Hood if you’re not worried about social conservatism, or if you want to narrow Sepuloni’s majority, vote for Shaumkel, but I wouldn’t bother.

Mana:
Barbara Edmonds of Labour holds this safe Labour seat, she was a tax lawyer and political advisor to Stuart Nash, so you’ll want to vote against her. Dr Frances Hughes is the National candidate, but there is nothing in her profile that suggests any belief in less government. Lily Brown from ACT is better, but you can’t go past Richard Goode from NAP (Not a Party) as someone who actually believes in individual freedom.  Richard Goode, NAP

Mangere:
Another solidly Labour seat with William Sio standing down, so Lemauga Lydia Sosene is standing for Labour. She has a diploma in business administration and has been a local councillor, so is more interesting than most Labour candidates. You’ll want to take a stand against Labour though, so Pothen Joseph from ACT, who is loudly in favour of individualism is your best bet. Rosemary Bourke from National seems reasonable enough, but Joseph would be a vote for freedom. Pothen Joseph, ACT

Manurewa:
Arena Williams is Labour MP for this safe seat and she advances a greater welfare state. She will win again, but your choices here are slim. National’s Siva Kilari has a rags to moderate riches story that is worth endorsing to try to demonstrate that entrepreneurship not welfarism is the answer to advancing people’s lives. Siva Kilari, National

Maungakiekie:
Priyanca Radhakrishnan from Labour holds this marginal seat, which could easily switch to National. You wont want her to remain MP, so you might consider Greg Fleming, the National candidate who is notable for being a founder of the Maxim Institute, a conservative think tank.  You’ll pick Fleming to pick up a win from Labour, and at that moment that’s a positive, but if personal liberty matters to you, you’ll struggle to vote for him. On balance I’d probably prefer to give Labour a bloody nose here than miss the chance, but if you can’t stomach Fleming, Margo Onishchenko from ACT would be your better choice.  Margo Onishchenko, ACT

Mount Albert:
Jacinda Ardern is the MP not standing again, so you’ll feel less concerned about voting out Helen White who will win the seat for Labour (she is a union lawyer whose main redeeming feature is owning a dachshund).  Melissa Lee is standing for National, and she’s been around for a while, but doesn’t even have a functioning profile on the National website. Ollie Murphy from ACT leads Young ACT and seems to support less government.  Murphy if you want to bother.  Ollie Murphy, ACT

Mount Roskill:
Little Michael Wood is safe here, but he’s such a little socialist that you’ll want to put this tiresome union hack in his place. Carlos Cheung for National was born in Hong Kong and is both a businessman and a medical professional.. Rahul Chopra of ACT says on his profile he is a board member for the Department of Conservation, which must be a typo. I’d be tempted to give Carlos Cheung the vote, because someone from Hong Kong is likely to be more free market oriented than most in the National Party.  Carlos Cheung, National

Napier:
With Stuart Nash retiring in some disgrace, Labour is punting Mark Hutchinson, a management consultant, to replace him.  On paper the seat is usually Labour, but this can be stopped, and Hutchinson’s weak class rhetoric is worth opposing. You should pick Katie Nimon from National who actually says “I have always believed that a limited government, and competitive enterprise, sees the most positive impact on communities”.  Give National this woman for its caucus, it needs more of this.  Katie Nimon, National.

Nelson:
Last election you followed me in ejecting Nick Smith, an enemy of private property rights, from this seat. Now it’s time to eject union organiser and big government advocate Rachel Boyack of Labour. Blair Cameron of National is uninspiring, but although Chris Baillie of ACT is better, the goal to get Labour out seems worth pursuing.  Blair Cameron, National

New Lynn:
Another Labour safe seat held by Deborah Russell of Labour who was wholly unsympathetic towards small businesses facing ruin during the pandemic. She’s been hopeless as a Minister, although is moderately socially conservative. You want this tax expert who seems to love tax far too much to be out. National’s Paulo Garcia seems a nice enough chap, but ACT’s Juan Alvarez De Lugo is from Venezuela and is much more likely to be committed to freedom and free markets, so give him your vote. Juan Alvarez De Lugo, ACT

New Plymouth:
Labour holds this swing seat with Glen Bennett who seems reasonable enough, but Labour needs to lose. David MacLeod from National will do it, but Bruce McGechan of ACT is a far better candidate, openly classical liberal who believes in education reform.  Bruce McGechan, ACT

North Shore:
This safe National seat is held by Simon Watts who is benign enough, but ACT’s Anna Yallop doesn’t inspire any better.  Take your pick or don’t bother

Northcote:
Labour’s Shanan Halbert holds this relatively marginal seat, and whether or not you believe or care about the bullying allegations, he’s unimpressive, so needs to be defeated. Dan Bidois of National is seeking to win the seat back, and ought to be given the chance even though he is an economist.  Dan Bidois, National

Northland:
This seat is usually National, so it is unusual that Willow-Jean Prime from Labour won it in 2020. She’ll probably get in on the list, but she’s a Te Tiriti focused lawyer, so is not going to be a friend of property rights and individual freedom. Grant McCallum for National is a better bet.  You’ll want to avoid grifter Shane Jones, and Matt King (DemocracyNZ) has no chance and isn’t strong enough on freedom to counter that. Mark Cameron from ACT will get in on the list, and doesn’t say enough to differentiate himself from McCallum.  So Grant McCallum, National.

More to come...



This post first appeared on Liberty Scott, please read the originial post: here

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2023 General Election: Electorate voting guide Part One: Auckland Central to Northland...

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