Depending on what happens, six Hampton Roads house contests and two Senate contests may very well end up being competitive.

Here’s why:

HD71. The demographics of this District, which includes parts of James City and New Kent counties plus the city of Williamsburg, favor incumbent Amanda Batten(R), who was first elected in old HD96 in 2019. Voters in old HD96 make up roughly 62% of the new HD71. Redistricting, however, brought in some Democratic voters from old HD93 and a smaller share of Republicans from old HD97. If Democratic challenger Jessica Anderson can get the resources, this contest could be competitive. As of June 30, Anderson had $129,764 cash on hand, compared to Batten’s $206,603.

HD84. There is no incumbent in this Suffolk-based district. Democratic former Delegate Nadarius Clark resigned his seat in the old HD79 and moved into the district to run after being paired with Minority Leader Don Scott in the new HD88. Clark has significantly outraised his Republican opponent, Michael Dillender, but used a large chunk of it to win the Primary (perhaps way more than he needed to spend as he won with 82% of the vote). Going into the general election, Clark had $98,833 to Dillender’s $47,230 cash on hand. Although McAuliffe eked out a win here (50.9% – 48.6%), this minority-majority district could get competitive quickly if Dillender raises some money.

HD89. This is another open seat, the bulk of which lies in Chesapeake with the remainder in Suffolk. Republican candidate Baxter Ennis, a former candidate for Chesapeake City Council, spent heavily to win the firehouse primary for the nomination. Democratic candidate Karen Jenkins had no opposition for the nomination after an additional candidate failed to qualify for the ballot, which should have given her time to raise money. That didn’t happen. Although VPAP lists this district as competitive, at this point, I’d rate it Leans R (Youngkin +7.5%). Jenkins needs to raise some money.

HD93. This is my new house district, which originally paired incumbent delegates Jackie Glass and Angelia Williams Graves in the same district. Graves ran instead for SD21 (discussed below). While this Norfolk-based minority-majority district should be a slam dunk for Democrats (CD3 Bobby Scott +50.4%, McAuliffe +44.6%), I am concerned about the money. Glass had only $9,181 cash on hand of the $120,387 raised. Her Republican opponent, John Sitka, only raised $16,335 but had $8,142 on hand. (All amounts as of 6/30.) I’ve already seen a few Sitka signs (yes, I know signs don’t vote). I’m hoping to be able to drop this one into the noncompetitive category once the 9/15 finance reports come out.

HD94. This open seat district is adjacent to where I live so I saw the Republican primary play out. Andy Pittman was not afraid to spend money to win and he earned over 72% of the primary vote. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Phil Hernandez was raising money. This is a district in which both Scott (+13.6%) and McAuliffe (+3.9) won and it looks like Hernandez is headed for a win. As of 6/30, he had raised $272,533 and had $159,450 on hand while Pittman raised $89,858 and had just $17,326 on hand after spending the difference in the primary. My only concern about it possibly being competitive is the money. Pittman already increased his profile by his primary spending and if he manages to raise more, it could be a competitive race.

HD96. After announcing that she wouldn’t run for re-election and endorsing Susan Hippen, Democrat Kelly Fowler, first elected to old HD21 in 2017’s wave election, changed her mind and ran in the primary. She pulled off a win with just 28.49% of the vote in a four-way race. She also spent every penny of what she had raised, leaving her with no cash on hand entering the general election. Fortunately for Fowler, neither her Republican opponent, Mike Karslake, nor her independent opponent, Nicholas Olenik, raised any money. Karslake raised just $100 (in addition to loans of $26,050) while Olenik raised nothing at all. This minority-majority Virginia Beach district should be a Democratic hold (CD02 Elaine Luria +15.8%, McAuliffe +7.8%) but hard feelings over the primary as well as all the candidates basically starting with no cash (Karslake had $26,121 on hand at 6/30) puts it in my “may be competitive” category.

SD17. Nearly half of this open Senate seat is in Suffolk, but it also includes parts of Portsmouth and Chesapeake, the cities of Emporia and Franklin, the counties of Isle of Wight, Southampton, Brunswick, Greensville, and part of Dinwiddie County. Republican candidate Emily Brewer, who represented old HD64 since 2017, won a bruising primary over Hermie Sadler, despite being outspent nearly 2:1. The primary left her with just $62,258 cash on hand, which was less than the $65,932 Democrat Clint Jenkins had on hand. In the 2022 Congressional race(s), Democrats barely won this district (50.4% – 49.4%) while Youngkin margin of victory in 2021 was 5.2%. While VPAP rates this contest as competitive, I’m not so sure, mainly because of Brewer’s name recognition, which was no doubt bolstered by the $502K she spent in the primary. We shall see what the 9/15 reports tell us.

SD21. This is another minority-majority open seat, wholly within the City of Norfolk, the winner of which will be my rep. I completely agree with VPAP’s rating of Strong D: Scott won by 48.1% in 2022 and McAuliffe by 42.2% in 2021. Democratic candidate Angelia Williams Graves, who was elected to old HD90 in a special election in 2021, defeated Norfolk City Council member Andria McClellan in the June primary, despite being outspent. Republicans have conceded this race – they did not put up a candidate – and the only other candidate is Independent Giovanni Dolmo. Coming out the primary, Graves had just $17,129 on hand. Dolmo has raised nothing. The 9/15 finance reports may very well settle this contest.