I mentioned last week that there are three contests in Hampton Roads that I think are competitive*: HD97, SD 22, and SD24. Let’s take a closer look at each of these.

House District 97

This Virginia Beach contest pits Republican incumbent Karen Greenhalgh against Democrat Michael Feggans. This is a District is rated by VPAP as Competitive. Glenn Younkin (R) won in 2021 (50.6% – 48.4%) but Elaine Luria (D) won in 2022 (52.5% – 47.3%). Nearly half of the 63,376 registered voters in HD97 came from the old HD85, with the remainder coming from old house districts 21, 82, 84, and 83. Greenhalgh represented HD85 after defeating Alex Askew in 2021 by 127 votes. Feggans, who retired from the Air Force, is seeking office for the first time.

As of June 30, Feggans outraised Greenhalgh $257,268 to $255,243 but had less cash on hand, $122,308 to $134,579. It will be interesting to see what these numbers are on September 15, as they currently pale in comparison to the $3.3 million spent in the 2021 Greenhalgh/Askew contest.

At this time, I consider this the most competitive race in Hampton Roads.

Senate District 22

Also in Virginia Beach, this contest is a rematch of the special election held earlier this year in Senate District 7 in which Aaron Rouse defeated Kevin Adams by 696 votes. More than two-thirds of the 149,981 registered voters in the new SD 22 come from the old SD7, with the remainder coming from old senate districts 8 and 14. This combination made the minority-majority district more Democratic. Consequently. VPAP rates it as Leans Democratic. Both McAuliffe (52.3% – 46.8%) and Luria (56.5% – 43.3%) and won it in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

While the candidates spent $2.7 million in the special election, the fundraising through June 30 has been lackluster. Rouse has raised $161,051 and has $138,330 cash on hand while Adams has raised $94,958 and has $45,861 cash on hand.

Because this is a rematch – and because of the paltry fundraising – I currently consider this a competitive race. However, I won’t be surprised at all if this drops off of the competitive list when the fundraising numbers are released.

Senate District 24

This contest pits Democratic incumbent Monty Mason against Republican Danny Diggs. Mason, a former member of the House of Delegates, has served in the Senate representing SD 1 since winning a special election in 2016, held after the death of John Miller. He ran unopposed in the general election in 2019. Diggs is the former sheriff of York County and the City of Poquoson. Newport News accounts for 50.4% of the registered voters in the new SD24 while York County and Poquoson are 41.04%. Williamsburg (7.09% and James City County (1.47%) make up the remainder.

About two-thirds of the registered voters in the new SD24 come from old SD1, with the remainder coming from old districts 3 and 2. These two (old SD3 and SD2) added more Republican voters to the district. In addition, Younkin won the new SD24 (51.3% – 47.9%) in 2021 while the Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives won (50.2% – 49.0%) in 2022. (Consider me map-challenged. It appears that part of the new SD24 is in House District 1 (Rob Wittman- R) and part is in House District 3 (Bobby Scott -D). I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong.)

I think it’s easy to see why VPAP rates this district as competitive. Without even looking at the money, I agree.

Through 6/30, Mason outraised Diggs ($1,013,727 to $679,602) and also had more cash on hand ($774,180 to $423,658). As both candidates are well known, I expect the money to tighten up (although you can’t see that from the ad spending to date (per VPAP, Mason has spent $528,000 while Diggs has spent $210,000)).

*A contest is generally considered competitive if the margin of victory (that is, the difference between the percentage of the vote received by the winner and the second place finisher) is less than 10%.