How far do defections by councillors predict election results? Augustus Carp brings us up to date with his findings.

Churchill spoke of his various changes of political allegiance as ratting and then re-ratting. The same process affects the occupants of council chambers just as much as it does the denizens of Westminster tea rooms. 

Back in February I wrote a post for this blog on the numbers of Defections by local councillors from the party which had endorsed them when they were elected.

My opinion is that these moves are just as important as council by elections as barometers of local political opinion. Indeed, maybe more so, as they might indicate irreconcilable tensions within political groups - and fractious political parties do not make good foot soldiers at future elections.

The figures for defections as at the end of April are telling. In total, in the year since the May 2022 elections, there have been 240 defections by sitting councillors who have not resigned their seats. Conservatives made up 142 of that number, with 93 by Labour Party councillors. The Liberal Democrats have seen eight, and the Nationalist parties four, but the Greens have acquired seven over the year.

The Conservative figure accelerated somewhat - only 100 had gone in February (reader Matt Pennell reckoned that the figure might rise to 120) but by polling day in May the figure of 142 meant that on average about 2.73 councillors were defecting every week. For Labour, the figure is 1.79 defections per week, but those calculations are, as the late Bob Mackenzie would say on election nights, “just a bit of fun” and not to be taken too seriously.

Nevertheless, comparing defections with the 4 May results is illuminating. Sure enough, the 'defection hotspots' identified over the year do seem to tally with poor electoral performance. It would be impossible to determine any distinct correlation, particularly as the results were so bad for the Conservatives this year, but the following might be regarded as predictive:

• Amber Valley (6 Tory defections) - Tories lose 21 seats; Labour gains control of the council.
  
  
• Erewash (3 Tory Defections) - Tories lose 11; Labour gain control of the council.
   
• Derbyshire Dales (4 Tory defections) - Tories lose 6 seats, lose council to NOC, and are the second largest party after the Lib Dems.
  
  
• Bournemouth (6 Tory Defections) - Tories lost 24 seats and are now the 3rd largest party after the Lib Dems and Independents.
  
  
• Tamworth (6 Tory defections) - Tories lose another 6 seats, Council now NOC.
  
  
• Hyndburn (5 Labour defections) - Labour lose 2 seats, now joint largest party with the Conservatives.

The real hot spot for Labour defections is Stroud (nine losses) but there were no elections there this year. Matt Pennell also tipped us off about Babergh, where a complicated Conservative defection happened before our records started. There the Greens have ended up as the largest group, with the Tories now in third place, having lost over half their seats.

I will start keeping notes on the back of an even bigger envelope and bring you any notable observations in a few months’ time. I suspect that the rate of defections will accelerate over the next few months, as Tories become more disillusioned and try to rebrand themselves.

In addition, other councillors, who stood as paper candidates having been solemnly promised that they would never be elected, suddenly develop delusions of grandeur and seek to throw off the shackles of party structure and group discipline.

So, what do we think? A total of 300 defections from all parties by May 2024?

Augustus Carp is the pen name of someone who has been a member of the Liberal Party and then the Liberal Democrats since 1976.