Researchers can now Link Weather Events to Emissions, and to the Companies Responsible. A String of Lawsuits is about to give “Attribution Science” a Real-Life Test.
Richard Heede, the Norway-born Academic’s Task was to find out how many Greenhouse Gases the World’s Fossil Fuel Companies, Cement-Makers, and other Industrial Giants had Pumped into the Atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. A Geographer by Training, he tagged Library visits onto Work Trips to pore over Annual Company and Shareholder Reports. He painstakingly Traced Mergers and Acquisitions as Companies Morphed and Amalgamated. He also Enlisted Volunteers across the Globe.
Like most Analysts, Heede started his Work on Climate Change focused on what Individual Consumers could do to Reduce their Emissions. After all, it was the Consumer who was “Consuming” the Product and actually Releasing the Emissions from the Oil, Gas or Coal. But over time, he recognized there was a Flaw in that Approach.
Individual Consumers can make Choices only among what’s already on the Market, but who decided what was on the Market? Other, Larger Forces had shaped an Economy Dependent on Fossil Fuels, he realized, Companies who Developed the Markets for Fossil Fuels and Influenced Decisions to Build the Infrastructure that Supported them.
So he asked: Shouldn’t the Companies who Profited from those Decisions play a Role in Mitigating them? With World Governments making Little Progress toward Reducing Emissions, perhaps Pressuring the Companies whose Products were Causing the Harm might have more Effect? “With federal policy being unsupportive and still emphasizing continued energy development, I just thought it would be a new lever to look at the companies that have their hand on the tiller,” said Heede, who now Lives in Colorado. “And pressure can be exerted in a number of ways.”
By 2013, roughly a Decade after Heede began his Search, he had his Answer: Just 90 Companies had Contributed nearly Two-Thirds of the World’s Industrial Emissions. He could even Pinpoint the Share of those Emissions for which Companies Existing today are Responsible.
In effect, Heede had established a Pillar of a New Field of Research, now known as Attribution Science. But it wasn’t just an Academic Exercise. It’s a Weapon that Climate Campaigners are Starting to Wield to put Fossil Fuel Companies on the Hook for Billions of Dollars in Damages. It’s a kind of End-Run around a Political System they see as Forced into Gridlock by Fossil Fuel Industry Influence.
Heede and his Collaborators are part of a Paradigm Shift in how to assign Blame for Climate Change. For Decades, as Signs have grown that the Planet is Warming, the Public and Defenders of Industry have laid the Blame on End Users, the Ordinary People who drove their Cars too much or blasted Air Conditioning in their Homes. Those add up. But Attribution Science has the Effect of Moving the Blame back one step, away from Consumers and onto the Companies that Extracted the Coal, Gas, and Oil, that have Powered our Planet for Decades.
If Blame can be attributed to Corporations or Governments, they believe, it can have Two Powerful Effects: Create a Strong Incentive for those Companies to once and for all move away from Fossil Fuels, and Unleash, through Lawsuits, Financial Resources that could be used to Seed New Technologies and better Prepare Communities for the Calamities Climate Change is expected to bring.
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